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mcm-ct.com @mcm_ct
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Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

Will also prepare a THREADVIEWER version

Let’s start with $SPX
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Here is a better version of that $COMP & $SPX (gray) chart
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How about the $COMPQ Running Correction? Its coming right along and following perfectly as well as getting ready to soon pull the rug out from underneath buyers imo $SPX
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Important Resistance is coming up on $SPX around 2570 and given the behavior of the participation (more buyers than people think imo yesterday) there should be upside follow through to fairly easily get to this target area
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A closer look at the RUNNING CORRECTION - RUG PULL we continue to expect shows similar regions for $COMPQ as previous chart

Remember this is a #NASDAQ #COMPOSITE CHART w #SPX in gray underneath and on the left hand scale which which an $SPX rough target area can be estimated
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There was MORE PARTICIPATION AND CONVICTION ON THIS $SPX RAMP THAN ANY SINCE OCTOBER...this imo implies markets are not going to just fail & do a bear market collapse just yet. What would be a more logical expectation is a gut check or two that are bought & squeeze higher
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In the bigger picture participation is lagging price and optimism is very high - absurdly high for $SPX
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$SPX $NYSE Short-Term Optimism is the highest since 2013 BUT during bear markets these out bursts often fail fairly quickly - which we believe applies now. One thing to remember is the dramatically declining shares & number of issues makes for easier stronger readings now
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The markets & the world, led by irresponsible credit creation & financial engineering at the hands of incompetents like @neelkashkari & the @federalreserve has been on a consolidation mission in every regard. From banks to media co to everyday firms - they are merging. 1/
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People who have followed Advance/Decline & especially Cumulative A/D were all looking for big divergences and Advancing Volume vs Declining Volume Divergences that did not happen because the number of stocks in the markets is down 40% in 20 years and floats by more /2
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What about the BIG picture? This is possible and might also suggest a bit more persistence by buyers attempting to revive the bullish new ALL TIME HIGHS vigor. So, a very large Head and Shoulders top could develop on majors $SPX $SPY #SPY $INDU
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If one looks at the $INDU it looks like this and could require a bit more time before we fall over and breakdown...BUT this is an exceedingly bearish Head & Shoulders top if it is forming
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Keep in mind on both of these HS scenario charts - we were careful to not estimate price symmetry & time symmetry btw the left & right shoulders - which is something important in HS patterns. FWIW, in very bearish scenarios the right shoulder CAN truncate both time & price
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$CPCE Equity Put/Call ratios have been testing a bullish setup (implication bearish for markets) consistently over the last months since October. This is something to keep an eye on as if this holds then seems like another panic could be approaching as a reaction #SPX $SPX
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While we do not like the Advance/Decline measure because of the consistent contraction in number of shares & issues traded. What works MUCH BETTER is ratio of $NYSE Advance/Decline to Equity Put/Call $CPCE. Which continues to lead $SPX lower and is dramatically lagging now
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Here is a closer look at the $NYAD ratio to $CPCE which is signficantly lagging on this ramp which is NOT a good omen for buyers imo $SPX
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No comment needed - all this yearly chart needs is a down candle - which is what appears most likely to us $NDX
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Talking about parabolas...the number of 52 week highs has been in a down trend parabola for 15 years - that’s something!

NOT GOOD when the $SPX $NYSE markets loose the few leaders it’s got left
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Here is a simple way to understand why cumulative A/D is useless - its simply a trap that bullish biased and dumb money analysis will consistently fall into. $SPX $NYAD
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Very low $ARMS Index readings used to trigger at the beginnings of rallies in a bull market but in bear markets they tend to occur near tops $SPX #SPX
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DEFLATION!

$Silver spread to $Gold says

Deflation ahead which implies significant Credit contraction
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A look a long-term resistances on the major indexes $SPX $INDU $RUT $NDX $COMPQ
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Bullish allocations were $28 to every $1 bearish. That has come down to $6 to $1 now & should bounce a bit if $SPX gets any consolidation BUT should also be followed by a trip to $1.5 to $1 or less. This is a important sentiment reading...who said you can not see bubbles!
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Cumulative $NYSE McClellan Oscillator vs the standard McClellan Oscillator tell the story...2300’s we’re NOT very likely major lows on the index $SPX
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New Lows on $NYSE are at points where short-term bounces have occured but are almost always in short order followed by lower price lows. IF $NYSE num of new lows is not exceeded then a price low of significance may be in but if exceeded setup marks a kick off to a bear imo
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Here is a picture of new lows/highs on $NDX over the years - looks like a bear market setup to us presently
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Here is a picture of $NYSE new lows/highs...again, looks like high probabilities of being a bear market setup to us - so focus on 2007/08
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Here is a picture of $SPX new lows/new highs going back a long way...
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The @federalreserve, rates, MP (monetary policy) and markets...this paints a rather disturbing picture imo and implies markets will find reality far more disappointing than hope - so, will likely be unsustained $SPX
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While the $BCOM bloomberg precious metals index is now performing its likely to run into serious head winds if the deflation risk is what is seems based on $SILVER spread to $GOLD and additionally what $KOSPI is saying about the economy and the next catchdown for $SPX
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Dr. $COPPER does NOT look happy $SPX
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For markets to put in important lows the $RUT ratio to $SPX should be sporting something looking like leadership...its NOT doing that
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While the $BANK index has been tracking the $SPX the last two sessions $TRAN Transports are in another world and does not bode well for this ramp imo
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In Sept we were pounding the table for a major bull turn for $UST when everyone was pounding the table on $UST bear market...this bull market in #UST imo will continue into 2021 sometime
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$VXO went from making a higher high vs $VIX not making one to now outperforming the $VIX index in terms of strength. This points to imo a remarkably dangerous setup for risk and also a precarious one for $SKEW $SPX
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10 year $UST vs 2 year $UST - interesting chart!!!
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$NASDAQ $VIX (inverted) is not buying the ramp
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$INDU $VIX is not buying the $DOW ramp either
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All this being said about the $VIX - it appears to us the it needs to test lower before a turn back up which imo will likely be a large move
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Here is another look at the $VIX and volatility complex
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And here is an even more detailed look art the $VIX complex
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While inverted $VIX is so far not confirming $SPX ramp, the $UST yields are not confirming $VIX and also not confirming $SPX
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Just a reminder of the incredibly thin (not broad) the $NASD #NASDAQ rally has been since 1990’s
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$SKEW is showing that traders are completely ignoring buying out of the money protection via options...this again is NOT BULLISH its an epic complacency in the current setup as we have repeatedly shown (will repost those charts later) $SPX
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the $SSEC Shanghai exchange is NOT showing any real signs of turning despite the USA’s $SPX bounce and insane PBoC stimulus and intervention
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No overview can be made of the markets without addressing currencies. And while $AUD has gotten some play its limited and the $JPY is a major story because of the huge leveraged carry trades invested in risk assets
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When one considers the largest tech selloff of all time...how is now? Here is a model we have been posting for last 4+ months of $NDX vs $SPX in 2000 vs $FANG vs $SPX in 2018

2018 selloff is MUCH stronger which tells us this is a shot across the bow & will get much worse
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So, @CNBC and @GerberKawasaki think mkts were ridiculously oversold...well, not even close. #Equities at not even as oversold as during dips during the strongest bull markets of all time $SPX - right now mkts approaching reversion (middle line) & have much more downside risk
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So. Now the big question: WHAT ABOUT CREDIT and LEVERAGED LOANS?

They are all outperforming $SPX which suggests that there will be continued pressure/squeeze higher till this optimism or reversion abates $SRLN $TLI $TSLF
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Lumber is FINALLY getting a bid and imo this should not be a 1 a done bid there should be at least a little more effort to buy this market - it will most likely fail BUT should get a bit more upside this week imo $WOOD
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Another look at resistance:

$NYSE
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Another look at resistance $QQQ
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Another look at resistance $INDU
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A closer look at the $RUT ratio to $SPX
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$TICK similar to other measures has been dropping for over 10 years - this is not good plus retests of the zero bound usually bring further downside price developments $SPX after any brief bounce
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Intraday Charts A
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Intraday charts $AAPL $INDU $C
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$INDU yearly bars
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Credit setup suggests more relief rally ahead $BKLN
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A long-term look at $TRAN Transports suggests that the test of support was overshot which implies the next test is likely to be a significant breakdown
Sorry guys have around 8 more charts to prepare but can’t look at another one - that’s it for this right now

Have a great trading week ahead
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