, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Thread on market timing and improving returns over Buy & Hold.

Contrary to popular belief, timing the market is possible. Not only that, it can be easy. If you think one cannot time the market and thus averaged down in crypto all of 2018 - thank you for your donations.
2/ Timing the market does not mean buying the bottom. There are many ways to time the market. These are some:

- trend following systems
- breakouts
- capitulation bars
- understanding news / macro events
3/ Still don't believe one can time the market?

Go tell Soros who broke the Bank of England.
Go tell those who sold the pound on the Brexit referendum.
Go tell those who sold the euro when the ECB announced QE.
Go tell CTAs running systematic trend following systems.

etc etc
4/ Trend following is a very simple form of market timing that often generates better risk adjusted returns by reducing downside. It is particularly useful in highly trending asset classes such as crypto. It is very basic.

Here's a detailed example: trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/CMT…
5/ This compares a Buy & Hold strategy with various trend following strategies based on moving average crossovers.

Most trend following strategies delivered *superior returns with lower risk*. No active trading required: the best performing strategy took 5 trades in 9 years.
6/ Note the comparison is not with Buy & Hold from day 1. It would be unrealistic to do so, due to both unrealistic timing and limited liquidity (see ). It instead uses as day 1 the close 200 days prior to the first 200 day moving average crossover.
7/ What about Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

This compares a Buy & Hold strategy where investor adds 10% of initial equity every month versus trend following strategies where investor adds 10% of initial equity only when strategy is "on", and keeps funds in the bank when not.
For the record. Idiots with attitude get blocked. It's OK being uninformed or not very intelligent. It is not OK being an uninformed idiot with poor attitude.
8/ Conclusions

- HODL =/ greatest investing strategy.
- Not HODLING =/ active trading.
- Indiscriminate Dollar Cost Averaging is suboptimal.
- For long term speculators, shorting bitcoin best avoided.
- No need to buy the bottom / sell the top to do well (relax).
Great article by @movement_cap on an alternative to Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA): Value Averaging (VA). Plan to run this for $BTC at some point and share results on this thread. medium.com/@movement_cap/…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Alex Krüger 🇦🇷
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!