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Stu Cvrk @STUinSD
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
(1 of 5) From a recent intel report: is there drama in Belarus? Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met and reportedly discussed further political and economic integration.
(2 of 5) Most Russian media focused on Putin’s insistence on implementing the 1999 Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus – setting off a firestorm on social media about Russia’s true intentions.
(3 of 5) As far as we can tell, they are the same as ever: Moscow wants to keep Belarus firmly aligned with Russia, and Belarus has no choice but to comply, even as it tries to use what leverage it has with the West to balance its negotiations with Russia over key issues.
(4 of 5) According to Belarusian state TV, the key issues in the meeting last week related to compensation for Belarus from Russia’s changes to oil export taxes and to the creation of equal trade conditions by 2025.
(5 of 5) We will see decades of tensions between Russia and its former provinces. Military and economic pressures will be exerted by Moscow as appropriate to place pressure on each government. This article speculates about Kremlin intentions for Belarus:…
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