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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 14 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1. Most Brexiters, it would appear, do not understand the system behind EU trade. We didn't decide one day that we were going to simply abolish border controls. We simply moved them away from the internal borders inside the EU to form an external frontier to the EU.
2. The controls in place start at the farm gate through the slaughterhouse and inspections are done during the process - all to a single regulatory regime. Frictionless internal borders are the byproduct of extensive harmonisation. It's an elaborate system evolved over 40 years.
3. With the UK now leaving that system we move to the outside of the external frontier controls. We become a third country and are treated as such. The EU is likely to be more vigilant with the UK stating its intent to diverge from EU standards and weaken our own.
4. With a deal it is possible to minimise the red tape overheads. With regulatory harmonisation we can eliminate some of the checks. With no deal, there is no basis for trust and no legal means by which the UK can be afforded permanent concessions.
5. In the event of no deal standard controls are erected on the calais side causing delays as goods face document checks in respect of origin and tariffs - and lab tests on certain produce. Food especially. In some cases 100% of consignments will face checks.
6. That means queues at the ports. It means paying for testing. It means incurring the charges and fees and ayingdriver overtime, destroying the profitability of value chains.
7. Laying on extra ferries doesn't help. For starters voyage times double and quadruple to ports with appropriate inspection facilities, sometimes hundreds of miles away from the main E-road network. Distance=time and time=money.
8. So even if we could minimise the backlog at Dover, a number of exporters will now be doing the sums to see if it's even worth the bother exporting at all. Ironically, that may be the reason why we won't see queues at the ports. The overheads are too great.
9. Moreover, much of our trade had evolved within the single market ecosystem and ports have developed under this business model. Dover and Calais are equipped for rapid turnover no fuss trade. They do not have the facilities to act as a third country port.
10. Yet for all this the Troy brexiters will invent any number of fantasies to wish away the real world consequences of no deal - and that's before we start looking at how regulatory systems will cope an anything from aviation to fishing.
11. By means of some of the most sophisticated propaganda ever deployed in Britain, devotees of the Ultra Brexiters now believe anything they are told in respect of no deal and no amount of explaining makes a jot of difference. This has become a psychic epidemic.
12. They now believe that easing border friction is just a matter of both sides agreeing not to impose controls quid pro quo. That is not how the system works and no sovereign territory would unless they were forced to - which we might, but the EU will not and cannot reciprocate.
13. The EU is a long established system of rules and in order for them to relax their frontier controls there are certain obligations and responsibilities we must uphold as a trade partner. But the Tories believe these obligations should not apply to them.
14. To then suggest that having demolished a number of key exports upon which millions of jobs depend, that we somehow save money by leaving without a deal is possibly the most moronic notion of modern times. I have never in all my life seen anything quite so crass.
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