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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. Accounting for the media's tendency to misreport no deal #Brexit consequences, warnings should not be casually dismissed. IF even half of it is true - and there's every reason to believe it is, then Brexiters should be deeply worried...
2. Even the ERG admit that no deal cannot stay no deal. The seem to think the EU will be in a mega rush to sign a package of mini deals (which apparently can be scribbled down on the back of a fag packet in a an afternoon). Nobody serious thinks this.
3. It is conceivable that something like the Australian Euratom agreement can be easily replicated but air services agreements could take years to rebuild and negotiate. There are dozens of complex peripheral issues to address, all of which are beyond our absorptive capacity.
4. The moment it all goes to hell in a handcart a number of key sectors, fishing especially will be left without cover - with no trade preferences or market permissions. The EU notices to stakeholders alludes to this.
5. So then the Tories are ejected at the first opportunity as we start seeing waves of job cuts. There will be major anger when sectors like fishing were promised a renaissance. The Tories will take a hammering at the next election.
6. That could mean Corbyn, but there's a good chance his uselessness will see him ejected but then the main business of government will be to desperately rebuild a functioning trade relationship with the EU in which we will have next to zero leverage.
7. that then means we have a government much like now, at war with itself on how to proceed, delaying any progress - but eventually out of desperation, the UK will go grovelling to Brussels to sign any deal put in front of us. Not entirely dissimilar to the one on the table.
8. By then the penny will have dropped that to resolve the ongoing port crisis we need to rebuild capabilities at Dover - and that is going to mean the full adoption of the EU SPS regime and all the product controls - verbatim under direct ECJ rule. Probably worse than May's deal
9. Being that we have an utterly supine parliament - and many of the Brexiters will have been kicked out, not least in those areas where the job losses are acute, they will sign up to literally anything with virtually zero scrutiny.
10. May's deal gives us a window to improve the deal or at least supercede the backstop, but a no deal could see the backstop becoming the minimum rice to reopen talks - and this time it really will be permanent. May's deal isn't ideal - but it keeps us in the game.
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