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Daniel Schultz @pastordan
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
.@johnastoehr: "Where is the impeachment tipping point?"

Me: "In a folder in Mitch McConnell's desk labelled '2020 re-election campaign calculus.'"
@johnastoehr I'm actually being something more than just cute here. The impeachment question gets framed around the idea that it's a self-evident proposition that's being resisted for now, but that's really not true.
People seem to assume that impeachment would be a net positive for either party, but that's just not a given. There are significant political risks for Democrats, and even for Republicans, should they go along with it. Might not stop the bleeding, in short.
I think the big problem for both parties is that there's no clear post-Trump scenario. So you get rid of Trump, and maybe Pence, and then...what?
There's not really a clear leadership replacement in the GOP. At least with Nixon, they sort of knew Reagan was in the wings. But who takes over for Trump?
Likewise for Dems, there's not a central figure to push forward at the moment. Maybe you get Pres. Pelosi, but she would be a caretaker like Ford, that's all.
And if the endgame isn't clear, neither party is going to be exactly enthused about taking that kind of project on.
As odd as it seems, I think we've already closed the window on impeachment. Barring some truly egregious new piece of information, the safe call for both parties will be to simply let the clock run out on the Trump presidency.
That way, they don't have to deal with the mess of declaring a do-over. Just let the political cycle run, and see if Trump gets primaried or beat in the general. Much simpler and much safer for everybody.
All this being said, @johnastoehr has a good read on the dynamics, I think. The weaker Trump gets, the more tempted he is to extremism, and the more that sets him up for failure at the least and impeachment at the most.
The smartest thing Trump could do for himself is stop listening to Stephen Miller, but if you think that's going to happen, I have a warm, tropical beachfront condo on Lake Michigan I'd like to sell you.
Any other president would have seen Miller's gamble on the base and its disastrous results in the midterms, and invited his advisor to apply for the position of dogcatcher in Westerly Podunk, Arkansas. Not this one.
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