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Some surprising statistics in this. It claims that in selective areas:
* Disadvantaged pupils (POLAR Q1) are twice as likely to progress to Oxbridge
* BME pupils 5X as likely to progress to Oxbridge
* Grammars send more BME students to Cambridge than all other schools combined
Some claims made in this have been debunked (e.g. ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2017/04/ordina… on income of Grammar entrants) and some may be an artefact of POLAR being a poor measure of disadvantage (e.g. no children in London in POLAR Q1).

But interesting nonetheless
This table was particularly interesting - I do wonder if some of this is might be due to the substantial cross-border movement of children into Grammar schools across LA boundaries making it tricky to define a selective/non-selective area
A couple more thoughts following a more detailed read.

First, the issue of cross-border movement of children to attend Grammars is huge & invalidates the entire methodology. In some areas, *three quarters* of Grammar School students come from outside of the LA
Second, the study misunderstands the DfE income measure. It’s a measure of median equivalised income after housing costs. 2/3 of children are below the median on this measure. Many who are will have a parent paying higher-rate tax. Few are from working-class backgrounds
Third, Grammar schools have a huge impact on the local private school market - some of the measured “impact” will be about children switching to the state sector rather than doing any better (this is acknowledged to be fair, but is not controlled for)
Fourth, it appears that students in non-selective areas who progress to university from an FE College or 6th Form College having attended a comprehensive 11-16 are ignored in the analysis (definitely in some, it’s not clear if the Cambridge analysis ignores it too)
There are some interesting facts in the report that require further investigation correcting for the issues above - it may well be the case that selective systems increase working-class and BME Oxbridge entry - but the report sheds little light on this question
Back to the fourth point, if I’m understanding right the analysis is limited to only those students in *school 6th forms* at Grammar schools, secondary modern schools and comprehensive schools rather than a cohort analysis looking at all 18 year olds in a local area
In other words, the report seems to be deriving conditional probabilities of going to a selective uni given attendance at a school 6th form. It excludes the vast majority of secondary modern students & many selective uni attendees from non-selective areas if they go via colleges
It also means that the Grammar-educated university entrants will include many who were educated 11-16 in secondary moderns, comprehensives or independent schools who shift to a Grammar school sixth form for their A-levels
Some more number-crunching: the data used in the HEPI study excludes around two thirds of the cohort.

It also excludes 40% of state-educated HE entrants and 28% of selective HE entrants, mostly in non-selective LAs
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