, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. For a while it very seriously looked like aircraft would be grounded in the event of a no deal #Brexit. Looking at the legalities, it was a reasonable assumption to make. There are, however, contingency measures. (Thread)
2. This is not to say that we are out of the woods. In the EU's own words, "These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky."
So what is "basic connectivity"?...
3. This means only the basic four of the "nine freedoms". This means UK airlines will be able to overfly airspace of Member States, make landings for technical purposes and fly passengers from UK directly to destinations within EU, and pick up passengers headed back to the UK.
4. Intermediate pick-ups and all forms of cabotage are gone – with freight as well as passenger traffic. UK carriers will no longer enjoy the right to provide intra-Union air services. That's a major blow in case you were wondering.
5. There are waivers on safety provisions, extending the validity of certain licences and certification for a period of nine months but after that, services to the airline industry will suffer greatly.
6. The Commission's regulation explicitly prevents Member States from negotiating or enter into any bilateral air services agreements with the UK, and they must not otherwise grant UK carriers any rights other than those granted in its Regulation.
7. So the ultra Brexiters can crow that it was all just project fear, but this has huge ramifications for the sector upon which thousands of skilled jobs in the UK depend. Moreover, it will have implications for the cost of air freight. Especially if the ports are choked.
8. The exact ramifications are not yet fully understood but we have already seen UK operators decamping to the EU and much of the secondary industries that go with them will likely follow suit. You'll still be able to fly to the continent, but it's going to cost a lot more.
9. In respect of that, the UK is likely to become a civil aviation backwater. MRO and repair services won't have the full single market authorisations and to keep any they will need to apply to be regulated by EASA.
10. This may not concern you, but it gives you an indication of the kind of impact it has and if you can extrapolate, keep in mind this will be happening to a number of other sectors simultaneously. The ERG notion that we trade as normal is criminal dishonesty.
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