, 13 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Food for thought:

At the moment the US, Turkey, and Russia are having a tug of war not just in Syria, but globally. Syria is merely one theatre, albeit the most important one (high risk/high responsibility). Erdogan keeps Idilib as ballast, and US keeps N/E area.
Trump is clearly involved in a sub-battle with the so-called “deep state”, which is basically the Israeli lobby and Lockheed warhawks. They don’t want the US to withdraw from Syria, but the US doesn't exactly have domestic growth. Hence why the Fed Reserve does “QE”.
So we have a situation where Trump’s bloc outlined the framework of a “withdrawal”, but he has to fight to access the “trigger”. Trump rotates his staff regularly to negate “deep state” influence in his cabinet. So in many respects, the "Syrian war" is happening in DC, not Syria.
China reportedly has shifted its focus on its navy and air force, because at this current juncture its land forces don’t fit into the fourth generation war equation (vs the US). America will also have to reshuffle its deck (focus its resources on curbing China).
The division in the US is widening and widening, but not to the extent that a civil war can break out, since America is a big country. But, the economic indicators don’t exactly look healthy right now. No amount of “QE” can definitively put off the inevitable.
This is why Russia is in no hurry to boot America out of Syria. The current Trump v “deep state” conflict benefits everyone who is against US aggression. So, this is why the Turkey-US-Russia triangle is in reality a battle between the old guard (“neocons”) and new (Eurasia).
The smart thing to do is to exercise control over the variables in the Syrian theatre (read my last article), ensuring that a certain risk:reward algorithm is in effect. S-400 = main parameter. Regardless of how fast or slow negotiations are, Russia’s main objectives are clear.
In 10 years time all the questions that are being asked today about why Russia does this or that, why Russia doesn’t do this or that etc will become clearer. In 20 years the penny will have dropped with great resonance. It will become clear that there was no need to hurry.
Coming back to today, the card that the US’ has the least amount of control over is the one labelled “hand over Idlib to Russia/Syria”. When Erdogan plays this card (and Russia will exert its leverage to guarantee it) the US’ stay in N/E will suddenly incur more risks.
But when Erdogan does this, he won’t just be handing over control of a territory to Syria, he will be taking one more step to the East. Erdogan was ensnared in Russia’s “risk matrix” when it shot down the Sukhoi, similar to how the EU was ensnared via the Minsk Agreements.
When it seems like Russia “doesn’t do anything”, the reality is the exact opposite. According to certain social media “experts”, gravity also doesn’t “do anything”. Yet they admit that traveling in space is very different to travelling in/on the Earth’s atmosphere/surface.
Let’s be honest: even if the US occupied Syria for another 5 years, it wouldn’t change anything. Syria has lived with parts of its territory “missing” for nearly 10 years. It even sent electricity/resources to takfiri-held areas. This is only possible from a position of strength.
To close this monologue: Russia is starting to swing its sword at AFRICOM’s tentacles:

ft.com/content/a5648e…

Can the US really contain Venezuela, China, Russia, Iran, Moscow’s actions in Africa, etc simultaneously and effectively when domestic resources are thin? Rhetorical.
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