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Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

Since most analysts (except a few great ones) we see on twitter appear to be copping out as mkt has risen, how much all this BULLISHNESS is really in the mkt? $SPX

In the past we have discussed the epic internal/structural relationships between $NDX and $SPX in 2000 and $FAANGvs $SPX in 2019...lets take a look at that model again

How lets take a look at how this model has played out since we posted it mid year last year...

$FAANG $FNG vs $SPX has followed the model extremely well, with one exception...the $FANG meltdown has been much worse structurally & nominally than the 2000 disaster.

To see this complex chart in a greater overview we include both on one graphic so u can see how things line up. ITS JUST A FREAKING BEAR MARKET RALLY! NOT A BULL MARKET!

Using 2 versions of 2000 to 2018 model forward u can see the opaque gold & gray versions of forward model

Can you say MAJOR RÉSISTANCE (not not in France silly)


This is your reminder that central banks (esp @FEDERALRESERVE) who are behind the 8 ball and out of touch (by accident or deliberately) and suggest acquiescing to lower rates or balancesheet accommodation are BEARISH NOT BULLISH #SPX #RATES

This particular moving average has been the dividing line betw every bull & bear markets for it not interesting that when you line up 2000 vs 2018 this MA is indistinguishable (see prev post) $SPX $FANG

note the paltry $FANG rally - & PEOPLE ARE BULLISH?!!

In a sign of just how bullish people have become...they have DOUBLED their bullish allocations into the highs! Ask yourself is that BULLISH behavior?

(Hint: no its not)

$SPX is still epically overbought on the long-term but even looking at the market fairly short term on daily charts you can see that we not only did not get to decently oversold levels BUT the market is back at overbought levels

Some people on twitter have not done any studying on how to build or understand Participation/$TICK and completely misconstrue and do not know how to build proper charts. Well you should ignore people talking about $TICK because it’s NEGATIVELY DIVERGING vs $SPX

Very low $TRIN / $ARMS index readings are POSITIVE when participation is positively diverging but NEGATIVE when participation/tick is NEGATIVELY DIVERGING $SPX

Equity put/call ratios show highly complacent attitude to market highs. Successively weak put/call ratios are very often coincident with significant highs/turns - esp in bear markets $SPX $CPCE

Total put/call ratio $CPC has been exceptional at locating turning points and this time appears to likely not be an exception. $SPX

$OEX the S&P100 index is the professionals market - esp the options market and when you see options players buying protection here its a good idea to pay attention $SPX

After being incredibly complacent all the way down options players are finally buying some out of the money protection which is visible by the rising $SKEW index - in bear markets this index does not rise very high FYI

since advance/decline ratios are useless because of the corruption of the markets by way outsized buybacks and M&A/issue contraction, how to gauge the health of the market? Well A/D in ratio to $CPCE actually does a decent job of accounting for the error rates in AD

Will post the test of the charts tomorrow - will be a long job at at least 60 more and we believe paint an exceptionally clear picture

Here is a closer look at the AD to Equity Put/Call ratio vs $spx

During Bear markets the number of new lows never drops to zero even on bounces...but does like to hover in the 30’s & 40’’s while in bull markets - esp new bull markets this metric hangs out at or near zero for extended periods $spx $nyse

New lows vs new highs...present markets are following the bear market finger print to a tee...with one exception, the bull market was of much lower quality which implies imo that the bear will be of higher quality (meaning more powerful) $NYSE

Here is a look at $SPX and you can see the patter well also as well as the much poorer breadth on rallies- this is NOT a pretty picture

Expect BEAR RAIDS to intensify. Why? Leverage. The entire growth model over the last 30 years has been dependent on ever increasing credit expansion. UNWINDING LEVERAGE BECOMES MORE INTENSE & PAINFUL THE MORE LEVERAGE IS USED $SPX $NYHL

For those of you who actually do pay attention to Cumulative Advance-Decline (which is hugely bullishly skewed) even on that this bounce is poor via the $COMPQ $NASDAQ

Here is another view of $COMPQ breadth over time...and the drop was both not anywhere near sell off intensity in 2012 and 2016 (which implies there is virtually no way these are significant lows) AND the bounce is well VERY WEAK/THIN $NAAD


NOW TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE check out $NAAD over the last 40+ years! Who could have guessed that increasing tail risks that go along with a silly concentration via a centrally planned and allocated credit expansion agenda? $COMP $NASDAQ

Declining breadth on $NYSE is whgould not be ignored BUT keep in mind most of the time in bear markets turns don’t even have enough time to setup diverging breadth $NYADV

Another tool following the bear market pattern...Volume McClellan Summation shows a the exact finger prints of the bear and none of the finger prints of a major low $SPX

Perspective - ANNUAL BARS $INDU

Perspective: $INDU back to early 1900’s

$INDU is at resistance in this simple chart

Not only are $TRAN Transports lagging considerably on this bounce but they are also at resistance

So, what is the world thinking?

#MSWORLD appears to be thinking RESISTANCE!

Here is a nice picture of $NYSE

If market regime intended to shift back to something bullish investors would pay up for safe YIELDS as you can see they’re doing here...THIS IS EARLY STAGE BEAR BEHAVIOR $SPX

Another both recession and bear market indicator is the ratio of $WMT to $NDX (and $SOX not shown) - it continues its recession/bear trajectory/prognostication

Here is $WMT vs $SOXand is behaving as usual and is coming from trough position which is needed for the recession/bear forecast to be reliable

Recognize anything $INDU

$INDU daily

And a perfect head and shoulders pattern right at weekly resistance with perfect symmetry and very similar timing symmetry as the left shoulder $INDU

Think that the head and shoulders is only on the $INDU? Look at $SPX

The pattern is very pretty on the $SPY too

$UTIL Utilities are leading the way as it has at other highs so consistently (its an economic indicator thats why)

Very weak bounce on $NIKK - also at major resistance

One of our favorite liquidity gauges #btcusd is evaporating which suggests weakening credit and liquidity (unless you are on a boat with @officialmcafee ofcourse)

Bull markets are lead by small caps...this picture shows a pretty feeble situation re $RUT vs $SPX

Risk seeking? $SPX... High Beta #SPX thinks not

A longer term look at $UTIL and bear markets


Credit/Rates...lets look

Since last year while everyone was SCREAMING BEAR MARKET IN BONDS we were putting charts together like this suggesting yields for $UST dropping to new lows into 2021...

We are on Track! $SPX

Lets take a closer look at $UST vs $SPX...

Which one to you believe? Do you feel lucky?

Junk bonds have rallied hard right into channel resistance...with all the tools we have showing an recession looming does it really seem like $JNK is sustainable vs $UST? This is mispricing no two ways about it imo

Lets look at spreads... $JNK to $UST is ready for a scorcher...and its not likely to be friendly for people buying $JNK or for that matter other risk exposure

Interestingly, $BKLN, a leveraged loan security, is not confirming Risk highs and has failed at resistance

A closer look at $BKLN

$SNLN is also showing the same rejection

Interestingly $FLOT ramped to new highs but has held at channel resistance...people are chasing any thing that yields without seeming to worry about risk...but apparently these rejections at resistance suggest someone is thinking about it

Similar to the last two charts $LQD as the bond Portfolio of this instrument is demoted to -BBB it’s ramped to new highs... $TNX does not like it and someone is going to be the fool holding the bag who thinks the‘ll get out first - but they wont!

A broad view of credit $HYG vs $TNX vs $LQD (and showing $SPX for good measure)

So, how is that credit REALLY DOING? Lets look at banks and some credit behemoths: $GS...

Well they are massively underperforming the $SPX...

Again we ask: DO YOU FEEL LUCKY?

Ok here is $GE

So we ask:


How about banks? They are at resistance and look vulnerable $BKX

Lets look at volatility:

Interesting pattern holding over shelf support for $VIX

Even though $VIX is getting slammed right now...its still lagging $SPX which implies someone is not buying the risk on idea

Here is another view of $VIX vs $SPX and $UST Rates. $VXO the light orange line is even more skeptical of the ramp than $VIX (gray) and 10 and 30 year rages (gold and green lines below) are also both in agreement that something is not what it seems with risk

$VXX vs $VIX vs $VXO vs $SKEW

Look at what happened the last time $SKEW got ahead of the $VIX to $VIO ratio? It did not end well


$VIX to $VVIX vs $VXO to $VXN vs $VXO to #VXD

See anything?

Just a STUPID $VIX chart (according to GENIUS CMT @SJD10304 we post stupid charts and his posts are highly relevant)

The weakening $VXO (original VIX methodology) vs the new $VIX methodology is not something we‘d discount $SPX

Here is a look at $VIX vs $VXO scaled so the present non-confirmation by $VXO is easy to see


$VXN vs $Nasdaq $COMP

A new and more bearish Regime? The average $VIX to $VXO ratio is painting an ominous picture if you ask us #SPX

A very simply (and probably extremely pathetically stupid chart according to one genius CMT out there who gets all the bear moves right [not]) inverted $VIX vs $SPX on a 2 hour basis

On to commodities & currencies:

What do you think $AUDUSD is saying about trade and global economies?

Lets put if together currencies and commodities and from what it look like from our perspective says SLOWDOWN & DELEVERAGING. That is one bad combination. $USDJPY $AUDUSD $CRB $USDEUR

Lots of charts out there pointing to head and shoulders breakouts of selected commodities...but when you look at other commodity macro instruments there is not a lot of context/basis for any assumption imo that $WTIC can continue ramping easily

$WOOD like $WTIC and some other commodities has retraced nicely but all that brought it to resistance $SPX

Another look at $CRB $AUD $JPY and $SPX

$CRB lagging badly vs the $BCOM index - suggests significant commodities weakness is ahead

Lets look at stocks. As you may or may not know we have a target of $35 for $FB which we have consistently posted... $GOOG probably will fare better but both operations are mania/fads and rife with fraud and other issues imo

Looks like a great bounce to sell imo

$AAPL incredibly weak bounce from the unstoable trillion $ alien dreadnought

Short-term lots of leveraged loan/credit diverging here

$DAX is experiencing a weak bounce

Buy Backers are still paying for the leveraging and financial engineering they have been doing rather than actually focusing on growing the firms organically $PKW

$EEM Emerging markets is getting the big $GS push again - last year their call was one of the best fades ever...this year?

RUNNING CORRECTION rug pull is in position on the $nasdaq $comp (a bit higher than we thought but certainly enough to accomplish its goal - getting people bullish before the real down move starts $QQQ $NDX

Lets look at Résistance on a number of instruments - (viva la‘france) again $SPX

$RUT $SPX $INDU $NDX close up

$RUT $INDU $SPX $NDX further out

$RUT $INDU $SPX $NDX much further out

$RUT $INDU $SPX $NDX $NYSE 2 hour charts

China $CQQQ vs $QQQ

$TSLA - the firm that will blow up the access of zombie firms to credit markets (thousands of them) in the Small and Mid cap world. $TSLA is @benbernake‘s creation much more than @elonmusk‘s - its unraveling imo will take markets with it & reveal endemic frauds & insolvency

$MID Midcaps at major five la’resistance

Another look at High beta #SPX vs $SPX $SPHBI

$Banks and $Tran lagging $SPX by a lot
DONE...can not look at another chart!
50/ (CORRECTION here is the correct chart)

Junk bonds have rallied hard right into channel resistance...with all the tools we have showing an recession looming does it really seem like $JNK is sustainable vs $UST? This is mispricing no two ways about it imo
37/ Update

Wanted to repost this chart with the arrows drawn better $INDU
37/ ADD

Adding this chart from 1929 of the $INDU... thought it was worth adding
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