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THE DYNAMICS OF POLITICS AND THE PROSPECT OF CANDIDATES IN #NigeriaDecides2019.
#My2019ElectionVerdict
This should be my last view before #NigeriaDecides
A Thread 👇👇👇
Politics they say is a game. It is a game of number. A game of number that is determined by tactics, sentiments, perspectives and persuasions.
Politics also is a Science, something that can be studied.
Science is the intellectual & practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure & behaviour of the physical & natural world through observation & experiment.
Prospect of individual candidates and parties can be predicted with accuracy because it's a Science.
So let me quickly put this together as my last article before the big event in Nigeria on the 16th of February 2019 tagged #NigeriaDecides2019
The leading candidates are Atiku and Buhari. The leading parties are PDP and APC.
Last year when many were being emotional online by propounding theories of 3rd force that will never work anywhere, I did say it categorically that there is no natural force that can remove APC or PDP at the National level.
I gave reasons that are not far fetched because they are empirical and logical. Nigeria has 774 Local Government Areas, and only APC and PDP have structures on ground across those expanse.
I did tell Madam Obi Ezekwesili and others on twitter on a thread titled #PoliticsAndBrains that 3rd force will collapse because politics is not speaking of fluent English or semantics....#PoliticsIsLocal
While others were still talking about the defection of Saraki and others, I did a thread on July 2018 tagged #MyView and #TheGame on twitter where I told you that you should expect the defection of a prominent figure from the South like Akpabio.
Two weeks after that thread and Akapabio defected, people dug out the thread and asked me how did I know and I told them to go back and read the thread because I wrote every reason for my prediction in the thread.....Politics is a Science.
I know I don't have a platform like others YET, but when I speak as far as Nigeria politics is concerned, they my words for granted at your own peril. I think I understand The Science of #NigeriaPolitics for now.
So let me try to tell you the prospect of Atiku and Buhari as #NigeriaDecideson the 16th of February 2019. Politics is more than sentiment and semantics on Social media. Let's check what shall eventually work FOR or AGAINST their prospects:
1. Actions and Inactions
2. Media
3. Local Politics and perspectives
4. Party platform
5. Demographic strength
6. Individual Political strength
7. Sentiments
8. International Politics and perspectives
1. ACTIONS AND INACTIONS
Like they say in politics, 24 hour is such a long time that can determine many things.
What are the Actions and Inactions that will eventually count for or against Buhari and Atiku this coming Saturday?
Remember that Atiku did everything to go to the USA. That singular action will count for and against him. Some will vote for him because of that trip, some will vote against him because of that trip...It depends on interpretation of Action to individuals.
Remeber that Buhari suspended CJN Onnoghen just a few weeks ago that rattled everyone....That singular action will work for or against him in this coming election. For some that action was tyrannical and a threat to democracy.
For others, that action was why a leader like PMB must be reelected to sanitize the system & enforce Judicial revolution.
Actions & Inactions before election is usually calculated, once it goes as expected it favors you, once it works contrary sorry is the case in politics..RISKY
2 Media
Without mincing words both International & Local media have been very bias & in support of PDP.
In the events of the past weeks, you must have seen narratives that tend to favor Atiku & how narratives on ANY issue is twisted to paint Atiku as a better alternative to PMB.
I support Buhari, I like to engage people on issues devoid of insult. I have responded to Uncle Segun Adeniyi the former spokesperson of Late Y'aradu on two occasions on his articles on what I tagged #MyRebuttalToHisVerdictand #DebunkingYourVerdicts
I felt those articles were deliberately scripted to paint events and twist history and reality.
I have responded to individuals, fake News from different media where they deliberately sold out falsehood, allow such to gain ground then turned around to say "we are sorry"🤣🤣🤣
Despite the fact that Buhari's four years has been more fruitful than the entire 16 years of PDP, you will see Nigeria media
deliberately playing down on the gains of PMB administration. I have spoken about why I believe PMB is far better in a thread I tagged #PMBdeserves2ndTerm
However, media being the fourth arm of Government will surely influence the decision of many towards Atiku OR Buhari.
The only problem you will be shocked to see on Saturday's election is that #PoliticsIsLocal and the effect of media is overestimated in Nigeria terrain.
Wait till Saturday, the real voters hardly see what media portray. They see what they know in their locals....
This overHYPED mindset is what has been making some of you to think that your tweet as "influenzas" will determine how election will go on Saturday...#KnowYourLimit
3. Local Politics and perspectives
What is the political base of Atiku and Buhari?
As far as I know, Atiku has no deep political base that can come close to that of Buhari.
Buhari has maintained a cult-like political base especially in the North over decades consistently and the past few weeks showed that he has not lost them. In fact, it seems PMB's base has suddenly cut across the South beyond what you would have imagined compared to 2015.
The reason is not far fetched, when people saw that several things labeled on PMB was actually the opposite of what PMB is, the law of Nature & common sense dictates that more ppu will gravitate towards him. No Governor in Nigeria will ever accuse PMB of wrong dealing since 2015.
What Buhari endured in Nigeria politics of Saraki, Dino, Opposition insults, Fayose, Governor Amosun, Okorocha etc, nobody dared try 10% of such with Ebora Owu or Jonathan.
Yet Buhari is the one labeled a tyrant despite allowing people to have their own way since 2015.
But above all, the political base of both Atiku & Buhari will dictate the MAJOR aspect of 16th February.
Say what you want to say, Buhari has never lost his BASE to any President in history & his political base has been consolidated in the South West, South East and South South.
Atiku cannot win Buhari in Adamawa State, write it somewhere because Buhari will win at least 30 States while Atiku on the other hand will will maximum 5 States mostly in the South South and South East
4. Party platform
PDP has its political base in 774 LGAs and APC has the same.
South West has all Governors from APC, while South East and South South are more of PDP.
The party leaning and Governoship of each Geo political zone will play a big role in reality this coming Saturday. South West will be cleared by APC, Anambra is APGA and the Governor has his leaning towards Buhari. Ayade of Cross River is known to be Buhari's son.
Don't be too emotional about this, it will play a big role this coming days. Wait and see. All these noise you are making to discredit the election before it even takes place is a waste of time....Saturday 16 will happen & will be the most transparent election in Africa.
5. Demographic strength
Demography is relating to the structure of populations.
Demographically, The North usually has more population when it comes to real voting.
As at today Lagos has the highest voting population, over 6 million, second is Kano with over 5 million, third Kaduna with over 3 million, fourth is River State with over 3 million and Katsina with over 3 million....
So demographically, the politics of Jagaban already lock down Lagos for APC. Kaduna, Kano, Katsina are naturally Buhari's base.
River State is very dicey because Amaechi will not allow his base to be rubbished and that played out when APC went to River State yesterday.
So demographically The North vote will tilt towards PMB, the South West vote will tilt toward PMB The North central against all odd will still favor PMB. If you have followed PMB rallies across the States, you know something is about to hit you more than 2015 votes...
I expect Atiku's vote demographically to come from the South East and South South but, the issue is that even at that PMB is taking Edo, Anambra, and some easpect of River State.
Demographically, #NigeriaDecides2019 favors PMB far ahead of any candidate...#PoliticsIsLocal
6. Individual Political strength
Need I say more about the political weight of Atiku and Buhari to you?
Buhari is a political movement any day any time that can start a political party 3 months to the election and still make a big statement.
Atiku on the other hand has not been known to have a political base that can stand the test of time.
On the platform of political strength, Buhari is way ahead of Atiku and this will count on Saturday.
You can check this election poll State by State:
7. Sentiments
If there is anything to thank PDP for this time around, it is the fact that Atiku being their candidate has neutralized some of the major sentiments during election in Nigeria.
Buhari is a Muslim, Atiku is a Muslim, so religious sentiment was not played this year like PDP did in 2015
Buhari is above 70, Atiku is above 70.
Buhari is Hausa Fulani, Atiku is more Hausa Fulani🤪🤪🤪
Another sentiment that will play out is that no matter what you tell people about Atiku or Buhari, some people's mind are CAST already, nothing will change that...
If PMB likes, let him build the entire South East as he is doing now, they won't like him🤣
7. International Politics and perspectives
In reality, as it's being played out since last week, the international politics and perspective are more in favor of Atiku and the reasons are obvious.
Every Nation wants something that will be to the advantage of their own Nation and with all intent and purpose, it's becoming obvious to them that Buhari cannot be tossed to and fro, hence they need Atiku to play dirty game around.
It's also obvious that free money flowing from Nigeria in particular has drastically reduced as such, the impact is being felt in their Nations.
Buhari seems to call their bluff and face the Asia continent once they are not ready to bend their negotiation in favor of Nigeria.
As such you will see that Nigeria under Buhari has expanded its relationship across Asia than even UK and USA.
The only shocker that is awaiting the International community is that Buhari will again prove to them the reality of #LocalPolitics on Saturday.
I perceive that after this Election, even the International Community may be forced to understudy what I term #BuhariPolitics because even Russia will be helpless in influencing the coming election in Nigeria.
In it all, it is our Constitutional and Civic right to have a voice. That voice will be tested this coming Saturday. Your PVC will speak volume about the Character you want as your leader.
For me #iSpeakUpForBuhari
It's our Country, irrespective of who you support, after the election, we have a Nation Nigeria to support and defend.
Be a responsible citizen by going out peacefully to vote, wait and ensure your vote count.
Accept the result because minority will always have their SAY while Majority will always have their WAY...That is the beauty of Democracy.
God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
#ISpeakUpForBuhari
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