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Thread: On Global Economics

1. Most Americans are navel-gazers when it comes to tracking current events. We’re all transfixed by McCabe’s public admission of participating in a seditious conspiracy against @POTUS in a CBS 60 Minutes interview.
2. Or we pay attention to NBA and college basketball scores (the SDak women’s team is #25!). And while the US economy continues on fire, we pay scant attention to macroeconomics worldwide. Here are some tidbits on which to chew:
3. From a recent intel report, the International Monetary Fund released the first 2019 update to its World Economic Outlook, lowering its forecast for global gross domestic product growth 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent.
4. According to the IMF, slowing industrial production and trade growth, combined with the fallout from the U.S.-China trade dispute, is responsible for the downgrade. Here are some specific quotes from the IMF report:

<quote>
5. The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia.
6. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections.
7. The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 had already been revised downward in the last WEO, partly because of the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier that year.
8. The further downward revision since October in part reflects carry over from softer momentum in the second half of 2018—including in Germany following the introduction of new automobile fuel emission standards and in Italy where concerns about ….
8A. …sovereign and financial risks have weighed on domestic demand—but also weakening financial market sentiment as well as a contraction in Turkey now projected to be deeper than anticipated.
9. A range of triggers beyond escalating trade tensions could spark a further deterioration in risk sentiment with adverse growth implications, especially given the high levels of public and private debt.
10. These potential triggers include a “no-deal” withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and a greater-than-envisaged slowdown in China.

<unquote>

Read the report here: imf.org/en/Publication…
11. Speaking of China, the country released its latest GDP data, which put growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 at 6.4 percent and growth for the year at 6.5 percent. Let’s look closer:

<quote>
12. The Chinese economy grew by 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December 2018, compared to a 1.6 percent expansion in the previous period and in line with market estimates.
13. It was the weakest pace of quarterly expansion since the first quarter of the year.
14. GDP Growth Rate in China averaged 1.79 percent from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all-time high of 2.40 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of 1.40 percent in the first quarter of 2016.

<unquote>

Read the rest here: tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-grow…
15. Leaving aside the inherent unreliability of Chinese data – many projections suggest Chinese GDP growth was much lower than Beijing reported – China’s growth rate for 2018 is the lowest observed since 1990.
16. Additionally, the 4th quarter figure is in line with that of the 1st quarter of 2009, right when the country was struggling to cope with the financial crisis. Now why do you suppose the Chinese are facing rough economic sledding these days while the US economy is doing fine?
17. Because we have a president who is working hard to reset US-China relations, including stopping unfair Chinese trading practices and closing loopholes in trade agreements highly favorable to the Chinese. Tariffs work, folks, despite what the legacy media and Democrats say.
18. This might seem like a broken record, but there’s no way Hillary Clinton would ever tweak the Chinese Spider Dragon on trade. She’s been on their payroll since the 1990s and would have certainly signed the “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
19. This, coupled with open borders, would have been a one-two punch that would have accelerated the economic decline of the US – just as she and the rest of the globalists intended! Thank God for @POTUS! ///The end.
Addendum. This isn't coincidental, folks:
[H/T @KristiAnnMorri2 ]

statista.com/chart/16715/ch…
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