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1/Most people do not understand that the market is a complex system--the way the actions of one person cause reactions in others. Action & reaction, cause & effect. In any complex system, anything you do that affects the self-interest of someone else is a cause that will have a
2/proportional effect. The near blindness to this dynamic is pervasive among people but particularly in this space. The more you understand it, the more you'll understand the way people behave & as a corollary, the better you'll understand market behavior. I wrote this originally
3/as a tweet thread but it's easier to read as a snapshot. Anyone who has any desire to understand market behavior beyond "inst money is going to flood in like a mindless horde to make us all rich" should read this. This pic of an article refers to a pt made in the snapshot in 1/
4/Most will assume they understand the concept in 1/--no one thinks, "yes, I don't understand cause & effect." Anyone can intellectually grasp the idea, but it's not merely an intellectual issue but a matter of consciousness. Intellectual understanding is only theoretical & can
5/only point towards it. I used an extended analogy in 1/ to make it easier to relate to, & you should consider the following, as it can clarify the extent to which 1/ may apply to you. Most guys criticize girls for being gold-diggers (do you?), & say they want girls to like them
6/for who they are. If you want to date a really beautiful girl & you think that way, you are not likely to ever date a girl that beautiful, or be able to hold onto her if you do. It is not bc you need money. It's bc dating/relationships are 2-way streets--each side has its
7/own self-interest in mind, & the bases for those interests are not the same. You are oblivious to the fact that it's not in her interest simply to accept you--that is in YOUR interest. You want her beauty & her acceptance, w/o awareness that she is not there to cater to you,
8/but to cater to what she is looking for--her self-interest. And that interest is separate from yours & is not simply what you want it to be. It's not even so much about money as her interest in guys w whom she feels safe/protected & w whom she feels she's dating "up,"
9/just as you want to date "up" via hotter girls. And as much as you don't like that it often revolves around money, you are blind to your own hypocrisy. You say girls should like you for who you are, but when have you ever dated a girl only for who she was, w/o any regard for
10/her looks? Guys are "looks-diggers" as much as girls are gold-diggers. Blindness to this hypocrisy is a symptom that your awareness/consciousness does not extend past your own interests to those of others. Dating any girl is predicated on your ability to meet her interests
11/as much as hers is to meet yours, & if you don't, she'll go to someone else who can. Seeking girls based on their ability to meet your self-interest, criticizing them for trying to meet their own, & telling them to accept you as is at the expense of their own means you want
12/girls to just give to you w/o any awareness of what they want themselves. This is absurd. Realistically, you need to be able to give her what she wants in the same way her beauty gives you what you want. It's not in the self-interest of beautiful girls (or any girls) to cater
13/to your hypocritical, self-centered double-standard, but this is often the expectation. The lack of ability for guys to see past their own interests extends into markets, & cause-&-effect in general. People are not conscious of the effects what they do have on others. You can
14/recognize this in the way CT views inst--a monolithic horde who have no awareness that retail is waiting for them to save them. Inst will apparently act w/o regard for the market situation or any self-interest of their own, to be dumped on in an illiquid market. The reality
15/is, the small inst money that came focused on EQUITY inv unavailable to retail, not top 50 crypto HODLing market-buying to save them. Similarly, $crypto people are in open revolt against gov't power over the control of money, but gov'ts will bend over & even adopt $BTC as
16/their reserve currency. Gov'ts comprise people but the view is that they will not respond to threats against their interests in the way you would to yours/your family's. You can see how 2-D this way of thinking is. There is no cause-&-effect. No awareness of the complex
17/system in which they live. Most people cannot see past their own interests to those of others & thus cannot meaningfully anticipate others' reactions. You can never truly think strategically if you cannot see beyond what you want, & this is why most who invest/trade will lose
18/money or never reach the profitability they sought. It's also why most will never truly understand economics beyond theory--& why "crypto-econ" is so mangled--bc the driving motor of all economic movement & free market pricing is the pursuit of individual self-interest alone.
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