, 16 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Model Y Release Thread 🚨🚨

So much has happened recently, I thought I'd summarize where we are today ahead of Tesla's newest vaporware release. $TSLA $TSLAQ #Ponzi
2/ After numerous price cuts, store closings, and vast employee layoffs, Elon needs some quick, easy and free cash. The Semi & Roadster have already been tapped, it is time for magic door #3
3/ Lets remember $TSLA continuously bragged about 420k+ reservations. They even used it to raise capital. To date, Tesla has produced ~210k M3s and recently said the reservation list is now irrelevant.
4/ Lets also remember back to the Q2 18’ conference call in which Elon refused to answer an analyst question about this so called 420k backlog demand. It was a “dumb” question, Tesla had 2 years of demand before they had to worry about new buyers!!
5/ Less than a year later, $TSLA is about to ship negative margin cars to keep the line running at > 4k/week. They also anticipated paying the converts with stock less than 2 months ago. They are in desperation mode today selling old inventory to unsuspecting people
6/ Elon is a bit trapped tonight, make it sound like it’s just a bigger M3 to appease suppliers (75% M3 parts BS) and fear falling flat on hype. Or over promise once again and risk whatever remaining current M3 demand there is
7/ When the 3 was launched, Tesla was a luxury brand with an inspiring CEO. There were lines out the door to reserve the Model 3. We are now told these stores aren’t important, just give us your cash online!
8/ Now the CEO is fighting fraud charges with the SEC, attacking random workers, the luxury brand is tarnished with reports of bad finishes and lengthy service repairs. The excitement is gone outside the most adamant cult members.
9/ By Sunday evening, the Tesla team will have a clear idea of the true demand and enthusiasm for the Model Y. The M3 is now shipped to EU and China with little global backlog left. Just ongoing demand here on out. What is this #?
10/ The FSD vaporware “discount” to existing owners also ends on Sunday, one last cash grab from the most faithful. Every cash lever is being pulled. What else is left outside of negative margins 3s, RHD, lease, and more FSD vaporware?
11/ This capital raise worked for Tesla then, but this won’t be working this time. To this day we are still seeing customers recoup deposit refunds. Even the biggest supporters admit there will be little reason to put a deposit down outside of being one of the first.
12/ But fear not Ye Bulls! The board plans on raising capital if conditions don’t improve. With dead Model 3 demand and a weak Model Y reservation list, investors should be swarming to give this company cash at 50x current 19' EPS estimates for a bleeding manufacturing business.
13/ The Model 3 produced $1.5B in cash for Tesla during the 2 quarters they fully blitzed a 3 year old sales backlog and stretched suppliers. U.S. taxpayers have paid a similar amount to Tesla via tax credits. This isn't a viable business, its a hobby project
14/ Now Tesla has guided to a Q1 loss, and we now see them rushing to fulfill SR+ orders to keep the line running at normal capacity, a model that was released just 2 weeks ago. And then?
15/ The SEC seems willing to bet its reputation as an enforcement agency and protector of market integrity on Elon Musk telling the truth. But they also don't want to be to blame so why not just let him run out of cash... I guess its on the FTC to stop consumer fraud
16/ On 4/1/2019, the 1 year anniversary of "bankwupt", Tesla will release Q1 deliveries. Despite stretching every definition of the word, it will still disappoint. From there, the fun begins. Good luck to all! $TSLA $TSLAQ
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