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1/ The Ogden – This is going to be a long thread, because we received some new details about the Ogden in Wednesday's release, and I'm going to break it down for you because it's important.
2/ The Ogden is some of the strongest evidence that other people were somehow involved. Paddock rented FOUR condos (not three), with four overlapping nights. And that's just at the Ogden.
3/ His room at Mandalay overlapped with the Ogden for 3 additional nights, which means he had duplicate rooms for SEVEN different nights leading up to the attack, and one of those nights, 9/21, he actually had three condos rented, and he didn't even sleep at the Ogden that night!
4/ The FIT report says he checked out 1 day early from #2315, on 9/21, but in this new report the owner says he checked out on 9/22. The discrepancy is easily explained. He was only there from 9PM on 9/21 to 3AM on 9/22 anyway, yet he had three condos rented during that time.
5/ Airbnbs are paid in advance, and Paddock paid $1,055 for 5 nights in #2315, $211/night. Some will say my chart differs from the LVMPD in other ways, like the 4th condo and more nights in Fezza's unit, but the LVMPD is wrong and my chart is right. This thread will explain why.
6/ As I said in a previous thread, he wasn't even there 90% of the time he had all those condos at the Ogden. On the night he had three separate condos rented, he was only there from 9:13PM until 2:46AM when he drove back to Mesquite. He was away for the next 61 hours (2.5 days).
7/ His first night at the Ogden, he was there for only 7 hours. Then he flew to Reno and then Phoenix. That time, he was away from the Ogden for 48 straight hours. Then 2.5 hours after returning, he left again, driving home to Mesquite. This time he was gone for 19.5 hours.
8/ He left 5.5 hours later, and that was the time he was gone for 61 hours. So for his first week at the Ogden, he spent a total of 15 hours there, and 24 hours later he checked into the Mandalay Bay.
9/ Paddock wasn't even at the Ogden for the first two days of Life is Beautiful. He was only there for the last 9.5 hours of the festival, but he spent at least an hour of that time playing video poker. It doesn't appear that he personally was interested in Life is Beautiful.
10/ Yet on 9/20, two days before the festival, someone googled "Life is Beautiful" on one of the computers recovered at Mandalay Bay, the same one that had child pornography on it.
11/ And on 9/22 or 9/23, while Paddock was in Mesquite for 61 hours, someone searched a bunch of Downtown attractions, including the Discovery Children’s Museum and the Family Courts & Services Center, on the same computer with child porn.
12/ Paddock wasn't even there, and when he returned on 9/23, he went to play video poker. (FWIW, there are no children at video poker.) Then on 9/26, someone searched the Discovery Children's Museum on that computer for a SECOND time!
13/ So where was Paddock on the 26th? Well, he spent the night before at his home in Mesquite. He was in Mesquite all day on the 26th, went to Wells Fargo to wire $50K at 3:30PM, and returned to the Ogden at 9PM, gambled at The D for an hour, then left again.
14/ So he was there from 9:02PM until 10:34PM on the 26th. The Discovery Children's Museum is open from 10AM to 6PM on Tuesdays. So what about Wednesday the 27th? Could Paddock have gone to look at children on the 27th?
15/ The Discovery Children's Museum hours on Wednesdays are 10-5, but Paddock was at the Mandalay all day, until 8PM. From there, he drove up to Walmart in Mesquite to buy luggage, razor blades, fake flowers, a vase and a Styrofoam ball, stopping at the Ogden for only 16 minutes.
16/ That was the last time Paddock was at the Ogden, so he didn't go to the Children's Museum on the 28th either. Checkout for condo #1703 was on 9/28, but the last time Paddock was there was on 9/27. It is unknown if anyone slept in #1703 the night of 9/27.
17/ So who searched Life is Beautiful and Discovery Children's Museum and all those other attractions within walking distance of the Ogden between 9/20 and 9/26 while Paddock wasn't there? Could one of Paddock's computers have been there? Is it possible?
18/ Why yes it is! On 9/19 at 11:26PM, Paddock was seen entering the Ogden with a laptop bag. An hour later he left.
19/ Even if investigators were 100% sure that Paddock was alone in 32-135 during the attack, the number and type of weapons, ammo and accessories suggest--at the very least--the possibility of a different, wider plan, and the involvement of others.
20/ Same for the four subscribed cells and one prepaid burner the FIT report says he used for contacting multiple associates: "There were no phone numbers which contacted all of Paddock’s devices, however, there were numbers which contacted more than one of his devices."
21/ With that evidence alone (not even considering the multiple reports of apparent foreknowledge by people at the concert), any investigator would be remiss not to wonder if Paddock rented the four rooms at the Ogden for other people who were somehow involved.
22/ Does it make any sense that Paddock needed four rooms at the Ogden, even if he was just using them as a midpoint to move guns and ammo to the Mandalay Bay? You've seen how much stuff was at the Mandalay Bay. Did that require four rooms at the Ogden?
23/ Last Wednesday, the LVMPD released a 6-page report on the Ogden, with new information we hadn't previously seen. Here are pages 1-3 of that report:
24/ And here are pages 4-6:
25/ In this report, we learned why the LVMPD thinks Paddock only rented three condos when he actually rented four. We learned why they got some of the details wrong, and we learned the names of the owners of three of the condos.
26/ It was the Ogden's General Manager, Lisa Jaegel, who told the LVMPD that Paddock rented three condos, based on their check-in logs, and gave them the owners' information. No Ogden employees remembered interacting with Paddock.
27/ This is a little confusing the way the report is written, so you need to understand how it works at the Ogden. There is no big lobby. The lobby is about the size of an elevator lobby, and the concierge desk is small and off to the side.
28/ The Ogden is not like a hotel. It is private condos, and some people rent them out through Airbnb. Airbnb procedures say that the owner must be contacted directly by the renter at least once, but this can be as simple as a text message exchange, which it was with Paddock.
29/ And while there is usually a face-to-face meeting between owner and renter to hand over keys, this is not required if there is "access via keyless entry through a smart lock." At least one of the condos Paddock rented had a "code pad lock" on the door.
30/ The Ogden uses "Key Fobs" for access to the assigned parking spaces and for elevator access to the residential floors. It also provides the service of handing over these Key Fobs to renters at the concierge desk, but it is not required.
31/ A renter could check in and check out without ever passing through the lobby or interacting with an Ogden employee. And there are plenty of guest parking spaces before passing through a "Key Fob gate" to get to the assigned spaces. Here's how easy it is to get into the Ogden:
32/ The fourth condo he rented fell right in between two others, so if the owner didn't make him pick anything up at the concierge desk, then that rental wouldn't show up on any of the Ogden logs. It would only show up on Paddock's Airbnb account.
33/ The LVMPD contacted Airbnb on 10/3 asking for everything on Paddock's account, and they were told that it had already been provided to the FBI. So they contacted the FBI and were told that they had received some Airbnb info but did not pursue it further.
34/ The records the FBI received and did not pursue nor share with the LVMPD clearly show that Paddock rented and paid for FOUR rooms. And the FBI never corrected the LVMPD who continuously said three rooms, right up through its final report.
35/ How do we know this? Because @Lauren_Southern talked to an anonymous Airbnb employee who explained what happened, and showed her screens that only an Airbnb employee can see. Here are a few excerpts from her report dated 10/11/17:
36/ "Airbnb has “ghosted” or deleted the account of Las Vegas spree-shooter Steven Paddock… Inside the company’s ghost report menu, there is no option for spree-shooting massacre, so whoever ghosted the account chose: “Physical Assault” as the reason for closing the account..."
37/ "Another odd detail was that although the police reported that Paddock used the service on three different occasions, the shooter also rented a fourth property which overlapped another..."
38/ "Paddocks last IP activity was Sept. 21, despite having an Airbnb house booked for Sept. 24 through 28, for which he had already received a review, they said. There are other irregularities, the insider said..."
39/ "Paddock’s account was first created in late August and in the first two weeks the account was continually put in and out of “airlock,” the insider said. “Airlock” is the internal lingo for an account that has been flagged for lack of proper identification..."
40/ "When a customer is airlocked their participation at the site is suspended until the issue is resolved with a customer service representative, who journals the conversation for the company’s records..."
41/ "This process was developed to filter out fake identities and to address any out of the ordinary behavior or negative reports from Airbnb renting partners, they said..."
42/ "In the case of Paddock, however, the source said his account was regularly airlocked, then released and then airlocked and released, but even before the account was ghosted, there was no customer service journal of interaction between Paddock and Airbnb employees." 10/11/17
43/ Here are some of the screens she was shown:
44/ And here you can see the four condos, how many nights for each, the start dates, and even how much he paid for each condo:
45/ It's just so confounding how the FBI could be on the ball enough to beat the LVMPD to Airbnb, contacting them within 48 hours of the shooting(!), and then tell the LVMPD that they decided not to pursue it.
46/ The LVMPD interviewed the owners and photographed three of the condos, but the FBI never told them about the fourth? Did anyone interview that fourth owner, or photograph that fourth condo? Did the FBI do it but not tell the LVMPD about it? And why would they do that?
47/ As you can probably tell, because renters and their guests don't have to use the lobby or interact with employees, and because it's not a casino with cameras everywhere, the Key Fob data is essential in determining if anyone used Paddocks rooms while he was elsewhere.
48/ Not because the condos themselves open with Key Fobs, but because Key Fobs associated with those condos would at least have to have been used in the elevators, and possibly also to park in the assigned spaces.
49/ That data is so key to the investigation that it would not only prove that someone used those rooms while Paddock was in Reno, or Phoenix, or Mesquite or at the Mandalay Bay, but it would also give the times so they could be identified on video footage in the parking garage.
50/ So LVMPD asked the Ogden for the key fob log. Jeffrey Hall of Marksman Security who works at the Ogden went back into the security office to print it out, "and noticed that somebody physically went into the system and deleted all of the key fob history prior to October 2nd…"
51/ "It is unknown who deleted the log and why they would have done that. This is not something that is normally done in their system. According to Jeffrey, there is no personal log in to that system, so anyone who has access to the security area could have deleted the log."
52/ To be continued...
53/ Continuing this thread… After discovering, on the morning of 10/2 mind you, that the key fob history prior to 10/2 had been deleted, LVMPD Sgt. Rhoads requested that the Computer Forensics Lab (CFL) come to the Ogden and try to recover the deleted files…
54/ Analyst Bishop and Det. Johnson of the CFL went to the Ogden that same day, 10/2, and tried to recover the files. After no success, they removed the hard drive from the computer and copied it using an external write blocker, to take it back to the lab and work on it there.
55/ The deleted logs were on a program called Facility Commander WNX v 7.7 Professional Edition. Analyst Bishop confirmed that there were no logs prior to 10/2.
56/ Here is the manual for Facility Commander WNX v 7.7 Pro:
57/ I have no idea if this is how the key fob log was deleted at the Ogden, but here's the procedure for deleting an FCWnx 7.7 Pro database from pg. 90:
58/ My only point is that it had to be someone familiar with the software, and with access to the security office, who deleted the log. And if we take it at face value that all records prior to 10/2 were gone, then the deletion had to have been done between 12AM and 10AM on 10/2.
59/ If it had happened any earlier than midnight, then there would have been at least some key fob activity from 10/1 after the deletion. And Sgt. Rhoads received the Ogden information and headed over there at 10AM on 10/2.
60/ So whoever did it had access, and knowledge of the system and the way it works, and probably realized what it would reveal. The surveillance video wasn't deleted, only the key fob log.
61/ Could the FBI have deleted it after making a copy? They were sure moving fast on the Ogden. After all, they beat the LVMPD to Airbnb. It's possible but unlikely, because they wouldn't have the necessary access or knowledge without the help of an employee or security guard.
62/ And if they had help from the Ogden personnel, then you'd think that either Jeffrey Hall or Lisa Jaegel would have known about it and told the LVMPD that the FBI had already been there. So I don't think it was the FBI this time.
63/ Could it have been Ogden personnel or owners association deleting it to avoid bad press for the Ogden, which might hurt property values or rentals or something like that? No way. They only deleted the key fob log, and that wouldn't protect anything except accomplices.
64/ So if it was an Ogden employee or owner or security guard who deleted it, they must have been in on it with the accomplices, because that's all it protected… accomplices. Nothing else. We still have Airbnb, video, and owner and employee statements showing Paddock was there.
65/ Could it just be a fluke, or a coincidence, that the key fob log prior to 10/2 went missing right on 10/2? Well, they have a good system that stores video surveillance for 30 days. The El Cortez, by comparison, only keeps video surveillance for about 8 days.
66/ The type of data that would be in a key fob log requires only a minuscule fraction of the disk space that video requires, so there's no technical reason that would ever require deleting ANY key fob data. It could potentially be kept forever.
67/ The only reason you would ever delete it is for privacy reasons, so it's possible but unlikely that they might periodically delete the key fob archives. But if they're keeping video for 30 days, they would certainly keep key fob data for at least that long, if not forever.
68/ Therefore, I find it extremely unlikely that it was deleted for any reason other than protecting someone's privacy, and the odds of that someone being anyone other than an accomplice to Paddock's attack are vanishingly small.
69/ The implication, obviously, is that Paddock had accomplices who stayed at the Ogden. But if we open that door, we shouldn't limit the possibilities to only Paddock's four Ogden condos. Because IF Paddock had accomplices, then it's highly likely that some stayed elsewhere.
70/ I'm just making a point here, but there could have been accomplices staying at The D, where he gambled for more than an hour on the 26th, or at the El Cortez right next door to the Ogden, or even other rooms at the Ogden itself, rented by someone else.
71/ There could have been accomplices staying 13 miles away at Arizona Charlies on Decatur, or a half mile away at the Fremont Hotel, both of which someone googled on the child porn computer. Or two miles away at the Knotty Pines Motel, right next door to the Palomino strip club.
72/ I'm just saying that *IF* there were accomplices staying in the four condos that Paddock rented, then there were likely others who booked their own rooms there or nearby.
73/ As long as they were careful not to walk too close to Paddock when there were cameras around, they would just blend in, perfectly camouflaged by the Downtown Las Vegas crowds.
74/ They would all be ghosts, EXCEPT for those few who used key fobs associated with the condos that Paddock rented. Those accomplices had one Achilles heel that none of the others had… the key fob log. But within hours of the shooting, it was suddenly gone. Deleted. Poof.
75/ Why would Paddock walk down to Fremont Street and gamble at The D on 9/26 if he was really all alone? Does it make sense? He was already checked into his suite at the Mandalay Bay, and he would be gambling there an hour later, so why The D?
76/ It's not a fancy casino, btw. It used to be Fitzgerald's, which was a dive like the El Cortez. And the El Cortez is right next door to the Ogden. But Paddock walked down to The D and gambled from 9:02-10:16PM, then he drove to the Mandalay Bay and gambled there.
77/ So was he really alone while he was at the Ogden? Pretty clearly no! He told at least two of the condo owners that he was staying there with his wife, which implies that he expected to be seen with a female. And he was. Two different ones!
78/ "According to Jeff Hall and Lisa, there were two different female companions. One that looked "Filipino" and the other was a blond. They stated that the blond was the one who actually stayed with him one night." #LasVegasShooting
79/ Were they hookers? It's possible, but he started making those reservations three weeks ahead of time, on 8/27, so does it make sense that he was planting a cover story for prostitutes that far ahead of time? It doesn't make sense to me.
80/ And his first night there at the Ogden, he was involved in some kind of a "dispute" with someone inside the El Cortez casino. Does that sound like Paddock? Security showed up, but whoever he had the dispute with was gone by then. Perhaps it was someone he knew.
81/ Here's the actual machine he was playing, #20026.
82/ It's a Ten Play video poker machine, with 1¢, 2¢, 5¢,10¢ and 25¢ play. You can play as little as 1¢ per hand, or as much as $12.50 per hand. That's "Max Bet", 25¢ X 5 bets per hand X 10 hands.
83/ They say Paddock "gambled $12,000 cash" that night, but don't be too impressed. That's just how much he bet, total, on whatever machine he was playing. At $12.50 max bet per hand, that would be 960 hands.
84/ He was last seen at the Ogden at 8:14PM, and his "dispute" at the Ten Play was at 10:50PM. So if he was playing for, say, 2 hours, that would be 8 hands a minute. A little slow for Paddock.
85/ Remember, as I said above, he was only there for 15 hours total during the first week he rented those condos, and he was seen with two different females and having a dispute with someone during that time. So what do you think? Was he really alone while he was at the Ogden?
86/ PS. Credit for the awesome spreadsheet goes to @LVSA_sRamirez. I grabbed it last June and cannibalized it so many times I forgot where it came from. Here's the original, which I cut, chopped and pasted six ways to Sunday:
87/ PPS. Correction to #45: It wasn't the FBI telling the LVMPD that they decided not to pursue Airbnb, it was the LVMPD who did not continue to pursue the Airbnb records after confirming that the FBI had already received them.
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