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Coming up, my final pre poll assessment for Lok Sabha 2019 elections and give state wise numbers and also share analysis, along with key insights on this thread, starting today. This thread will be interactive.
Will cover southern States followed by East, West and North.
Tamil Nadu forecast for 2019
DMK – 19 (32%)
Congress – 2 (7%)
VCK – 1 (1%)
ADMK – 9 (28%)
PMK – 3 (6%)
BJP – 2 (4%)
DMDK – 1 (3%)
AMMK – 2 (6%)
It doesn't appear to be a clean sweep by DMK front as predicted by many. ADMk front is also doing decent
Both the Dravida parties are not the same force, they used to be, under their late founders. Little wonder, both the parties have conceded nearly half the seats to their smaller allies. The ADMK front has bigger allies as compared to DMK which only boasts of Congress. NDA has 3
Pondicherry forecast for 2019
AINRC 1 (59%)

Kerala forecast for 2019
UDF – 17 (45%)
LDF – 2 (21%)
BJP – 1 (23%)

BJP votes may cross Left for the 1st time in History of Kerala, which is facing a crisis of relevance across the country
Telangana forecast for 2019

TRS – 16 (47%)
MIM – 1 (4%)
Congress 0 (24%)
BJP 0 (14%)
Andhra Pradesh forecast for 2019

YSRCP – 21 (44%)
TDP – 4 (38%)
JS 0 (8%)
BJP 0 (6%)

BJP has strong chances to win Vizag, where it narrowly trails as of now.
The results in Andhra may come a shocker. If BJP and JS ally, they may upset TDP equation even further.
Karnataka forecast for 2019

BJP – 18 (45%)
JDS - 4 (11%)
Congress – 5 (33%)
Others 1 (1%)

The non synergistic alliance between JDS and Congress may actually be harming the 2 parties, than benefiting it. They may have won 11 seats had they contested together. JDS gains though
Was told the same thing when i predicted successive AIADMK victory in 2016, going against the tradition where MOST channels said DMK would sweep. Also BJP PMK DMDK parted ways (unaccounted in this prediction).
@Kiran_Jupally @kristanjore
South India Seat projection for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

NDA – 37 (BJP 22, ADMK 9, PMK 3, DMDK 1, AINRC 1, Others 1)
UPA – 51 (Congress 20, DMK 19, JDS 4, IUML 3, KCM 2, CPM 2, VCK 1)
Others – 44 (YSRCP 21, TRS 16, TDP 4, AMMK 2, MIM 1)

Andaman to BJP, Lakshdweep to Congress.
BJP may not have gained enough, but do watch how Sabrimala blasphemy and shrine desecration by CPM, sends the christian extremist party into oblivion.
Their political fortunes will burn and not just in Kerala.
They will fade into non existence soon.
Arunachal Pradesh forecast for 2019

BJP 2 (68%)
Congress 0 (6%)
Others 0 (26%)
Assam forecast for 2019

BJP 8 (36%)
Congress 3 (27%)
AIUDF 1 (11%)
AGP 1 (6%)
BPF 1 (2.5%)
Bihar forecast for 2019

BJP 16 (24%)
JDU 14 (19%)
LJP 4 (5%)
RJD 4 (16%)
Congress 2 (8%)

UPA bows out to NDA arithmetic, despite local level anti incumbency. Friendly fight between RJD and allies may complicate things for the Green alliance.
Jharkhand forecast for 2019

BJP 8 (38.5%)
AJSU 1 (2.5%)
Congress 2 (20%)
JMM 2 (12%)
JVM 1 (5%)

It would have seemed that Mahagathbandhan was all poised to sweep all 14 weeks 2 months back. Cracks in the alliance and BJP's move to ally with AJSU helped BJP cruise.
Yes that also helped. Mahagathbandhan in a way helped BJP by sending RJD dissidents to BJP.
Also expected friendly fights in Chatra and Godda.
I would give BJP 0 or 1 seats in January. Now things have changed dramatically.
Manipur forecast for 2019

BJP 2 (43%)

Meghalaya forecast for 2019

NPP 1 (42%)
Congress 1 (38%)

Mizoram forecast for 2019

MNF 1 (45%)

Nagaland forecast for 2019

NDPP 1 (53%)

Sikkim forecast for 2019

SDF 1 (57%)

Tripura forecast for 2019

BJP 2 (56%)
Orissa forecast for 2019

BJP 15 (44%)
BJD 6 (37%)

Modi wave seems to engulf Orissa in all certainty. Helped by 2 decades of BJD incumbency and organizational growth of BJP in last 3 years, BJP is all set to surprise everyone with a haul of 15 seats.
West Bengal forecast for 2019

TMC 32 (42%)
BJP 8 (35%)
Congress 2 (7%)
CPM 0 (10%)

A shady candidate selection by BJP and chickening out of BJP top leadership has made dictatorial Mamta Banerjee a primal force and BJP lost out on winning atleast 15-20 seats in West Bengal.
East India Seat projection for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

NDA – 86 (BJP 61, JDU 14, LJP 4, AGP 1, BPF 1, AJSU 1, NPP 1, NDPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1)
UPA – 18 (Congress 10, RJD 4, JMM 2, JVM 1, AIUDF 1)
Others – 38 (TMC 32, BJD 6)

Congress led UPA's sun all set to set in the East!
Chhattisgarh forecast for 2019

Congress 10 (45%)
BJP 1 (41%)

Aside Kerala, Chhattisgarh is the only state where Congress is expected to sweep & get in double digits. No anger against Modi but people are against Local BJP. NYAY scheme of Rahul Gandhi has impacted here the most.
Dadra & Nagar Haveli forecast for 2019

BJP 1 (48%)

Daman & Diu forecast for 2019

BJP 1 (52%)

Goa forecast for 2019

BJP 2 (47%)
Raman Singh 'was' popular during 1st 2 terms. 3rd term was horrible. Many workers were sidelined and worse mocked at. Corruption was high and social engineering at its low. Most of local BJP MLAs except a few we're arrogant and Congress like.
Gujarat forecast for 2019

BJP 26 (59%)
Congress 0 (30%)

Congress is back to square one after a scare it posed during the peak of GST and drought anger, nevertheless BJP maintained 50% votes share even in its trough of Assembly 2017
Madhya Pradesh forecast for 2019

BJP 25 (51%)
Congress 4 (40%)

Heavy anti incumbency against Kamalnath already. It is, as if a large section of voters who voted Congress, now feels guilt tripped for voting out Shivraj Chouhan and crying rivers.
Phenomenal for a politician!
In addition, the anger against BJP for supporting the Draconian SC/ST act (which sunk the party in both MP and Rajasthan, contrary to what any other may claim was the reason for BJP's loss) has dissipated due to BJP's 10% reservation for Economically weaker sections
This is true!
MP establishment is to BJP, what India establishment is to Congress.
Why else is Kamalnath forced to say in favour of Gauraksha, Hinduism, basically against Congress' extreme views.
People are angry with him for these reasons.
Maharashtra forecast for 2019

BJP 22 (32%)
Shiv Sena 15 (18%)
Congress 4 (16%)
NCP 6 (14%)
SSP 1 (1%)

UPA alliance may just breach the double digits mark. BJP strike rate remains significantly higher as compared to Sena.
Rajasthan forecast for 2019

BJP 24 (53%)
Congress 1 (36%)

'Congress Teri Khair nahi' is the sentiment in Rajasthan.
Default on salary payments of Government employees, anger against loan waiver hoax, and coming back of Rajputs to BJP fold seems to be undoing Congress
Alongside UP, Haryana and Bihar, Rajasthan is one of the states where sentiments other Balakot airstrikes have made a huge impact and hence this turnaround. Few would have believed that BJP would likely match its 2014 performance after the recent Assembly elections debacle.
West India Seat projection for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

NDA – 117 (BJP 102, SS 15)
UPA – 26 (Congress 19, NCP 6, SSP 1)

BJP likely to dominate Congress in all seats where it would be facing off Congress directly. Congress problems far from over with Raga getting few believers
I will share North India numbers only after BJP manifesto is out. I have a feeling that the said manifesto will have something which will puncture @RahulGandhi's hoax NYAY scheme and his other radically left, pro Pakistan and pro terrorism pointers. All of which will impact UP.
Yes. I anyways mentioned that, it could have been 15+ but for the bad candidates selection. Maybe people will ignore candidate names vote against Isl**ic extremism. I will stick to 8. Let's see if they can overcome bad candidates selection and poll rigging
And there you go.
Not sure for how long blood thirsty Mulla Mamta Bannerjee would be allowed to feast on dead bodies of her rivals?
When will this spine chilling madness be put to end?
Dumb but vicious and cunning politicians are getting smarter. After @RahulGandhi, even Akales Yadav comes up with an electorally good manifesto, surgically pin pointed at polarizing its core voters
Forget 30%.
Let's make it 15% +- of my voteshare predictions.
However let's make it level playing.
If I am right within 15% error range, will your Boss @ArvindKejriwal, his boss @HDKumaraswamy1
And his boss @RahulGandhi quit politics forever?
Tremendous crowds in Cooch Behar. Grounds are small for pouring crowds. I expected crowd in Siliguri but not here. If only Election Commission manages to execute fair polls, free from rigging of Trinamool Gundas, the result will be unexpected for @MamataOfficial
Andhra Pradesh Assembly Elections forecast 2019
YSRCP 101 (44%)
TDP 52 (32%)
JS 18 (14%)
Congress 3 (4%)
BJP 1 (3%)
Jagan Reddy all set to be next CM.
TDP's 2 lakh offer may not be popular as it is the incumbent party and this may be passed as election Jumla
Odisha Assembly Elections forecast 2019
BJD 70 (42%)
BJP 65 (40%)
Congress 4 (6%)
Others 8 (12%)
Unlike Lok Sabha, where BJP is headed for sweep, split voting may result in a hung assembly post the Assembly elections, with BJD as the leader.
Chances of a BJD-Congress tie-up?
This journalist seemed more frustrated than Sonia Gandhi would be on 23 May.
She took it personally. Interrupted many times. Got angry and When nothing went in her favor, she said she doesn't believe in surveys 😂😂😂
Clear signs of desperation from @Mayawati and @yadavakhilesh as they are literally begging Muslims to guess for them enmasse.
It seems they have accepted their fate and understood that the tacit move to keep Congress out to cut BJP's UC votes has backfired miserably
Is it a correct fact that Dalal @sardesairajdeep is deliberately not allowing one of the most accurate polling agency Axis' opinion polls, to be broadcasted as it is in favour of BJP, giving the NDA a heavy majority of 310+ and sizeable+decisive lead in Uttar Pradesh.
Best barometer to guage elections is how Sarkari Babus behave.
When model code of conduct is in force, why would IT officials raid Kamalnath and risk facing wrath of Congress when it comes back to power
Chandigarh forecast for 2019

BJP 1 (44%)

No visible anti incumbency, against BJP. AAP moves from a close 3rd position in 2014 to a distant 3rd position despite sustained campaign by party's machinery. An alliance with Congress may change the scenario though.
Delhi forecast for 2019

BJP 7 (45%)
Congress 0 (25%)
AAP 0 (18%)

This forecast assumes no alliance between the 2 green parties. The story if Delhi is completed meltdown of AAP to 3rd and @ArvindKejriwal.
Perhaps the reason, why the anarchist leader is desperate for an alliance.
In the event that Congress accepts AAP's repeated plea of a tie up, BJP will most likely end up losing North West Delhi and Chandni Chowk seats in decreasing probability.
BJP would still win at least 5 seats comfortably
Haryana forecast for 2019

BJP 9 (50%)
Congress 1 (16%)

BJP expected to breach 50% voteshare mark in Haryana. If it happens, this will be huge and phenomenal achievement by ML Kattar, despite such criticism.
Himachal Pradesh forecast for 2019

BJP 3 (45%)
Congress 1 (41%)

BJP may lose 1 seat in Himachal Pradesh but maintains the edge.
Jammu & Kashmir forecast for 2019

BJP 2 (32%)
Congress 1 (16%)
JKNC 2 (25%)
PDP 1 (20%)

Congress makes a comeback and PDP slips but its hawkish and pro terrorism stand keeps it relevant in the valley.
Punjab forecast for 2019

Congress 6 (38%)
SAD 6 (30%)
BJP 1 (11%)
AAP 0 (10%)

Captain Amrinder remains popular. However contrary to media projecting him as some sort of election machinary, he has started to face bits of anti incumbency.
Meltdown of AAP is also strengthening SAD
Uttarakhand forecast for 2019

BJP 5 (56%)
Congress 0 (32%)

Yet another hilly sweep for BJP, expected this time around.
All the cries, begging, pleading, tantrums could help AAP win only 2 seats. 1 each in Punjab and Delhi and nil in Haryana. The anarchist party, not surprisingly, is ever ready to compromise on its core promise and ally with Congress just for 2 seats.
Very often in the cacophony of Noida-Delhi based journalists, the ground reality gets missed
Truth is, Congress has completed 2 years
Truth is, rural areas are under distress
Truth is, Congress hopes for AAP alliance
Truth is Captain taking Pro India stand
And finally
Uttar Pradesh forecast for 2019

BJP 52 (44%)
AD 1 (1%)
NP 1 (0.5%)
SP 18 (21%)
BSP 5 (17%)
RLD 1(2%)
Congress 2 (9%)

Several stories coming out of the most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh from Balakot impact to Lackluster Piggy Vadra to losebandhan to new den of BJP.
UP findings
1. Balakot airstrikes have made huge impact in UP, along with Haryana, Bihar and Rajasthan
2. Congress gamble to field Priyanka Vadra hasn't paid off and party is likely to win only 2 seats of Rae Bareilly and Saharanpur
3. Yogi is popular but needs to do a Lot more
UP findings...
4. Gathbandhan is transferring vote to each other, contrary to what a few experts claimed
5. However even their combined strength may not be enough, which means UP is the be BJP stronghold state with 3 likely bumper wins in a row
6. BJP may get more votes than 2014
North India Seat projection for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

NDA – 88 (BJP 80, SAD 6, AD 1, NP 1)
UPA – 14 (Congress 11, NC 2, PDP 1)
Others - 24 (SP 18, BSP 5, RLD 1)

BJP likely to dominate North as well
Final Count

NDA 321 (BJP 265, SS 15, JDU 14, ADMK 9, LJP 4, PMK 3, DMDK 1, AINRC 1, AGP 1, BPF 1, AJSU 1, NPP 1, NPP 1, SDP 1, MNF 1 AD 1, NP 1)

UPA 109 (Congress 60, DMK 19, NCP 6, JDS 4, RJD 4, IUML+ 3 KC+2, CPM 2, JMM 2, NC 2, VCK 1, JVM 1, AIUDF 1, SSP 1, PDP 1)

Rest - 113
Maybe 15 seats too many for BJP and 20 seats too many for NDA, but it is what it is, the most likely scenario at this point of time.
BJP very close to majority on its own.
Biggest reason is, BJP was way too proactive and clever in stitching alliances.
Final Revised Count (Adding SAD+)

NDA 328
UPA 109
Others 106

NDA would nearly get the same tally as it got in 2014 due to addition of many more allies. Game set for NDA IV government.
Always see the direction and not the numbers.
Jan 2004 - May 2004. NDA numbers kept sliding down in each subsequent survey and from 340 in Jan 2004 went to 230 in May.
2014 it was reverse, from 165 it went up to 330.
2019 is following 2014 pattern.
Strange & funny, that Bhaktas believe 72000 jumla of @RahulGandhi will reach every corner of India and impact elections and Rs. 281 crore trail of Black money linking his close aides Ahmed Patel and Kamalnath will do nothing.
Kind if negativity that resulted in Rajasthan loss.
This coming from an anti BJP/Modi journalist should be message enough for panicking Bhaktas on which way UP polls and results are headed
These ~60 sick artists of Bollywood campaigned for Congress even in 2014. Who would have thought that in 2019, these Jokers campaign will be nullified with over 900 well known artists taking a counter stand.
BJP DID build an ecosystem and it is showing via actions like these
This for the 1st time I am seeing 3.5 Hindi channels and 2 English channels literally supporting BJP. Pre 2014, or was only Congress, which got ultra favorable viewership either by purchasing the voters, threatening them or any other forms.
There is a parallel eco system now
Why 2019 elections is not likely to resemble 2004 elections an more likely to go 1999 or 2009 way.
My analysis
Almost a 3rd of voters who voted Congress, Commies, SP, BSP etc likely to vote BJP in 2019. BJP to lose just 14% of it's vote from 2014.
Net gain of 2-3%.
Source - CSDS survey, usually unreliable
In 1996, Mayawati had famously said "1 din UP ke saare Yadavon ko apne talwe ke niche daba ke rakhungi 😃?".
Today Aurangzeb Akales is fulfilling that prophecy angering his father.
Tag all UP Yadavas you know who are rooting for BSP to this thread 😎
During SP tenure, all Cham** Dalits were beaten black and blue by SP Gundas for several years, humiliated and they considered them as slaves. Today they are doing what SP had wished for, being their slaves.
Tag any UP Cham** Dalits you know who are rooting for SP
If BJP crosses 12 (out of 29), I would I be call it more than expected performance. Party is at weak footing here and on the other hand likely to sweep almost all the 38 seats in East. Problem however is that elections start in West and it is important for momentum to build.
After Trivandrum where Champu Tharoor is going to lose by a big margin, another seat confirmed for BJ in Kerala, with the joining of PC George as he will add 1 lakh+ votes in Patthanamthita where BJP was 2nd with razor thin gap.
So 2 seats from Gerala
I think Cooch Behar and Alipurduar seats already in BJP's favour despite Mamta Banerjee's Gundagardi and TMC booth capturing. If voters favor BJP a LOT, even poll rigging and booth capturing of TMC Gundas can be nullified
West Bengal has witnessed bumper voting for BJP however massive booth capturing and rigging of polls. Not sure which is bigger of the 2.
Was 42 seats was worth the risk of maintaining Stateman image @narendramodi?
Should have imposed President's rule before the poll
Reports coming in from AAP headquarters that they would not use EVM bahana for losing deposit in all Delhi and India seats AAP contests, this time but instead use this hoax of Birth name being cut.
Summary of Phase 1
1. BJP may lose 2-3 seats in UP
2. It may gain some votes/seats in Assam+Bihar
3. Gain HUGE chunks in Orissa & WB in that order
4. Maintain status quo elsewhere
5. Outside chances of an odd surprise here and there (AP, TG)
This would be the template all across.
A section of M***** women voters who are outspoken may have been prevented from going out to vote, but their male family members, leading to 2-3% lower turnout from the community. All such votes may have accrued to the BJP for criminalizing TT and forced Mandatory rape post TT.
As far as I know, M*** have been packed in trucks, tractors etc to vote. So no, they are not 'not enthusiastic'. They are motivated. Evident from how 1 male wore Burqa to caste fake votes in Muzzaffarnagar.
My sense is 2-3% women who may have voted BJP.
The crowd swell in @narendramodi rallies this time is even bigger than 2014 when people were curious about him and came to see him and listen to him. Needless to say BJP is getting atleast 2-3% higher votes than 2014. Vote to start translation is the thing to watch for
Will Election Commission lodge FIR for hate mongering on Social Media?
This bigot is wife of a Congress senior member. She is trying to orchestrate Hindu-Muslim riots by spreading FAKE NEWS about some fictional murder.
Said in 2013 that Modi as PM will remain left leaning on Hindu religious issues.
I think it is safe to predict that @narendramodi Government in the best tenure will decisively turn center right on these issues. And yeah Ram Mandir WILL be built by 2022 Feb
Many Media low IQ Trolls are questioning Russia Ratna award to @narendramodi.
These Jokers don't understand that Russia lost a lot of India defence contacts to USA, France and Israel.
Hence Modi getting this award is phenomenal.
It means he acknowledged Modi as a strong leader.
The ticket allocation to Tejasvi Surya is a ray of hope. He will drive many millennials and teenagers towards the right direction and help them from getting misguided by false and dangerous youth icons like Dhruv Potter, Kunal Makra.
BJP needs 10 more Suryas in major cities.
Narendra Modi's Housing Yojna is one of the most underrated socialist schemes and its impact will definitely show during election results.
Surprisingly hardly any media, journalist, polling agency, expert talked about it. This followed by Ayushman Insurance and then Ujjwala.
It's all over for the opposition.
There is NO CONTEST anymore.
This election has been nationalized and people are not looking for local factors and candidates (as bigoted journalists would have wanted them to) and straightaway voting for or against @narendramodi
I have repeatedly said that BJP+ will get 3-4% more voteshare than 2014 and more votes in almost all states (including UP). Just the vote to seat conversion is the question mark. There is NO UPPER LIMIT.
Just as I said there was no upper limit in UP 2017
On the contrary:
Voters have never been so excited. It is as if they consider it their fundamental uty to bring back @narendramodi to power.
Evident from opposition body language.
In 2014, Congress still gave some fight via its insidious campaigns.
Gangster Afzal Ansari, 5 others given SP-BSP ticket from Ghazipur. During 2017 elections, Dalal journalists led by Rohini Bimbo painted clean inaccessible if sadakchhap @yadavakhilesh saying he was totally against criminals getting tickets from SP and it was Shivpal forcing them.
Last few RTs for those questioning me on Iamnarendranath.
He is a 3rd rate Dalal.
During UP 2017 Assembly this Lutyens butt kisser said there is heavy anti incumbency against BJP MPs but no incumbency against SP MLAs.
If you take his reporting at face value, Raga help you
I have blocked them long before 2017 Elections for his cheap 3rd rate and possibly paid analysis. If you follow him and take his views Seriously, the joke is on you.
Please don't tag me in cheap, theories like Chirag Paswan is losing and all.
Bihar is a one sided contest.
Even if it doesn't save deposits, Kamal Hassan's party nay get 2-5% votes in many seats and cut more DMK votes than ADMK votes and help the NDA.
NDA tally from Tamil Nadu, especially BJP tally will surprise all those who are saying DMK will win 35+ seats
I must say BJP has done very good job of tickets allocation in UP (barring Unao of course). There was severe anger and anti incumbency against the MPs and cutting tickets of almost a score of them and giving tickets to diversified professionals is healthy irrespective of outcome.
Only 23 May will reveal full picture but Modi wave of 2014 is gone higher this time due to several factors. Due to United opposition, the higher vote share may or may not convert to seats but BJP performance will be very good, especially in Eastern UP where it will be a sweep.
While West UP was/is a problem area due to demographics disadvantage, East is exact opposite with NY OBC and UC crossing 50% in almost all the seats and it already has a 10% advantage over the Things. It may be possible for BJP to win all 38 seats.
Even in a tough seat like Azamgarh, Dinesh Yadav Nirhua is making pakoda cheap Akales sweat and I won't be surprised if the super star wins and humbles the media Barbie Akales who has no reputation left.
My NRI friend, who is a UP ka Bhaiyya, returned home for voting season. He said his maid (a c****r Dalit) an erstwhile Mayawati voter from Hathras, Aligarh said she is extremely happy with Ujjwala Yojna and her entire village of C****r Dalits will vote Modi. Such is the craze!
So from now on my job is to also counter fake news written by journalists who have already been caught in passing pictures of Syrians murdered by ISIS as Muslim men killed by Indian Army in Kashmir, spreading fictional news like Dadri, Padri etc.
So Modi is NOT just winning maximum upto 220 as you said. He is winning much more and will be a PM again.
Your favorite politician Chandra Babu Naidu will not even become CM, let alone PM.
Of course it is NOT a fierce fight. The fight would be quite one sided where #SadhviPragya will spa** the hell out of this mainstream lapdog of Soni@ Ghandy who tried to mainstreamize the fictional non existent Hindu terror
Maid said that she went to to vote today for Mumbai North East NCP candidate & when she pressed NCP symbol clock, the light on Lotus symbol blinked 15 times.
I asked her to stop Day Dreaming as Elections in Mumbai North East are on 29 April.
Another youngster, I would see, is the Squint Neon guy. Very important in the war against Wannabe low life but influential trolls like Dhruv Potter, Kunal Makra, Dir Vas, Swara Khaskar etc.
Guy needs to be groomed well for the great war of 2024.
You should have seen their ground report from Ayodhya.
Line see several Muslims said that they will be for BJP mainly due to Housing Yojna and Ujjwala Yojna 😂😂😂
Will your master employer, the anti Hindu tyrant $onia, or her offsprings Raga and Priyanka dare to debate Sadhvi Prajna.
Open challenge to your Bosses.
Channel and time if your choosing.
Even NDTV is acceptable.
Say Yes if you and your boss have guts
BJP itself will win ATLEAST 3 seats. PMK will have a good strike rate as well.
Easily 14-15 from TN plus 1 from Punducherry.
NDA arithmetic as per 2014 is well over 50%.
TTV and Kamal Hassan cancel each other out as vote cutters of NDA & UPA.
1 BIG UNDERNOTICED fact about @narendramodi's 2019 campaign is that he borrowed a leaf from @realDonaldTrump's booklet just as Trump borrowed from Modi's 2014 campaign in 2016.
Modi heavily doing rallies in swing seats like Chitradurga, Saharanpur etc, just as Trump did with rust
Chobe is right if he is talking about Phase 1 where BJP expected to win 3. In Phase 2 BJP should win 6.
I have anyways pegged BJP at 12/29 on West UP. Anything more than that is a bonus.
It is the East UP, I am bullish about.
MINIMUM 30 from East out of 38
4 things clear from the polls so far for UP.
1. Vote transfer between SP-BSP is very smooth contrary to claims of Twitter Pundits
2. BJP headed for 45% and alliance 43% so BJP gets 50+
3. More than 50% non C Dalits with BJP
4. A tiny section of Muslims has defected to BJP
4 things clear from ROI
1. Karnataka Grand alliance has spectacularly failed, not due to JDS cadres but Congress cadres supporting BJP
2. Despite TMC Gundas and heavy rigging, BJP lead high enough to win 4/5
3. TN, NDA will win in double digits
4. Bihar BJP racing, JDU lags
Repeating this again.
Impact of Balakot airstrikes in Haryana, Rajasthan, UP, Bihar is highly underestimated.
Impact of PM Housing Yojna in UP, Orissa is highly underestimated.
Both will show vengeance on 23 May 2019.

Very valid observation. 2019 mimics 1999 in a lot of sense. 3 differences
1. BJP is organizationally much stronger
2. Amplification of mahaul much faster due to various forms of media and viral media
3. BJP has twice the number of allies this time.
Yes I think so!
The elite urban has drifted away from BJP due to this move.
Sadhvi Prajna sound narrate her victimhood & torture and how Congress conspired to declare Hindus terrorists in Malegaon and 26/11 instead of giving aggressive statements .
Entire generation of Odishiyas haven't seen Congress misrule and people yesterday for change.
Add to it, BJD youth's gundagardi, Modi's rise and his socialist schemes. BJD will be routed in Lok Sabha while salvage some pride in Assembly due to Nabin image.
These days people take offense at anything and everything and start exasperated outrage.
Sadhvi Prajna was best suited to expose Anti Hindu bigotry of Sonia-Chitambram-Digvijay.
Instead she is showing herself as aggressive by boasting that she razed Babri.
After 3 failed marketing campaigns:
Chowkidar chor hai!
Indian Army Jhoothi Hai!
Hindu Bhakt terrorists hai!
@RahulGandhi's new desperate attempt at promoting NYAY scheme in Posh PVR malls.
Yeah you got the target audience thought there!
These mall goers will vote you.
Reason for Point 1 above.
This sort of street fighting between JDS and Congress in Old Mysore and region. So when you heard Modi-Modi chants in HD Kumaraswamy rallies where BJP was weak, it was Congress workers who chanted it as they couldn't digest JDS CM
My own assessment is 8 seats as well, however a reliable person says that reverse polarization due to Mamta's grandiose appeasement is at its peak.
He said and he stressed on the word MINIMUM 20.
He says Mamta is shit scared after CRPF will man the booths.
Day before yesterday, Arnab explicitly mentioned that Pradeep Kumar of Janta ki Baat was the 1st one to give NDA 300+ and if others also follow suit, they will only play catch up game. It seems that he has got hold of exit poll data of a few agencies.
Very clear now
Very surprised to see Pro India, Boxing Hero @boxervijender fight from an Anti India Isla**c Extremist outfit Congress.
IMO BJP should have been the natural choice for him.
Also don't know why BJP would not induct him and give him ticket. They need people from all diverse places.
Yes definitely @boxervijender has chance but I think BJP candidate will scrape through due to Modi's goodwill.
But I must admit Congress list is much more impressive. BJP only GG, ML and maybe PV decent. Others are losers. Should have got fresh candidates
This means that Scenario 1 will play out and not Scenario 2.
Also expect rabid d*g @ArvindKejriwal's party of sadakchhap Gundas and rap**ts will sink even further and will lose deposits in ATLEAST 6 seats.
This disease called AAP will be over.
Scenario 1
Unreported fact of this election is relatively higher turnout and long queues in urban centers. It seems voters, especially middle class, are coming to vote against @RahulGandhi's dacoity schemes with vengeance. 23 May 2919 will surprise everyone
Surprisingly good trends from Rampur. The sick pervert trails. He may win eventually but would be good if he is sent crashing
Obvious message - We are losing big time. Alliance was a goof up like 2017.
Subtle and dangerous message by Tipu:
We won't tolerate this loss and will commit to arson and riots as our gundagardi was kept in check by Yogi.
Anecdotal but I saw some FB posts from Christian voters of Kerala, who are buying for BJP, in the aftermath of the unfortunate Easter attacks in Sri Lanka.
Nevertheless @ShashiTharoor's goose is cooked. He is losing from #Thiruvananthpuram
BJP will win 1/2 in Kerala
Seeing Banerjee Aunty's meltdown, it appears as if she is losing bhery badly, not just to BJP but even to Congress.
Kahin single digits me na as Jaye ye paagal.
But that would be an awesome thing to happen to this unstable, corrupt, extremist lunatic.
Risky bet but I think Gujarat Tally for BJP will be 26.
Not 19
Not 21
Not 23 or 24
But 26 out of 26.
Even in past when Modi was CM, they gave 2/3rd majority in Assembly and simple majority in Lok Sabha.
Now Modi is PM, it would be opposite.
Clean sweep in Lok Sabha.
All you need to understand is, UP is a red herring, a distraction. Real action is happening elsewhere.
Not that BJP has done/will do bad in Uttar Pradesh. They will end up with majority of seats but do see on 23 May, other areas which hostile media ignored
This well informed eminent personality, predicted heavy losses for BJP in Chhattisgarh Assembly 2018.
This is what he says for Lok Sabha 2019
Intolerant, communist bigot @vijayanpinarayi showered frustration on Journalists a day after the poll.
It seems Sabrimala conspiracy backfired on the Commie fanatics.
Many Captaintards were gasping at this prediction.
Now look at the candidates selection by NDA in Punjab
4 strong candidates already plus rural distress plus AAP meltdown helping SAD.
Truth is Modi doesn't want to offer any seat, any state on platter.
I think the most important tweet of this thread is this.
Media Barbie's misled into believing that UP was the one and only battleground
Mulla-Pindi-Clergy forced an asynnergic alliance, gave immense highlight to Pappuni to cut BJP UC votes.
The meltdown of all left lunatic isl**c extremist journalists is quite telling
They are literally crying rivers, getting exasperated, abusing their own paymasters for leaving these brokers in lunch.
Never seen such an implosion, not even in 2014.
I think the wave just got bigger.
Such HUGE roadshows hallmark of tall leaders like Modi, Shah, Shivraj Chouhan etc.
This is roadshow cum nomination event of Godda MP Nishikant Dubey.
He has built a loyal support base of 2-3 lakh votes outside party support base.
@ShrrinG @guru__ghantaal
Congress + BJP seats count, excluding allies in 2019 would be 355-360.
Usually it uses to be 325-330 for the past few Elections.
This is due to growth of BJP in states of West Bengal, Orissa and Tripura where BJP growth is not at the expense of Congress.
Didn't I say, Squint Neon guy is very important. He must be groomed and supported well.
See this video on Hindu History of Kashmir and subscribe their YouTube channel so that he gets more subscribers than pig's excreta Dhruv Tattee.

Looks like Sekhar Gupta of Print has got Supari journalism in practice.
Another fake article, attributing a fictional work as reality.
NOWHERE does Sjrjit Bhalla mention that Congress will win 97.
He isn't said the number will be far lower than 97.
Truth is many BJP Bhaktas got swayed by sudden 'Nationalist' posturing of Captain.
However see his pre 2014 bytes, he appears as vole, abusive and hateful as any average Congressiya.
Since 2014, it was all a propaganda to cut through the Nationalist votes.
Best people to rely are Hindi channel and print journos who are visiting, even th leaft leaning ones, People like Sushant Sinha, Akhilesh Sharma and not low life Dalals like Abhisar Sarma or Ravis NDTV or Ashutosh CNN IBN.
All of them saying surprise Modi wave, especially in UP
I think anyone predicting below 52 for BJP in UP, below 45% voteshare and below 250 overall Pan India is a noob and his/her sole source of consuming information is The Wire, The Print, The Scroll, NYT, Economist. To sum it all, the Congress IT cell.
That's right.
This time the Pro Modi voters are NOT vocal and are rather more cautious due to 2004 redux.
On the contrary, Anti Modi voters are vocal, thumping, arrogant and chest beating.
I sense a much BIGGER silent Modi wave than 2014.
In the 1st few phases, @Mayawati was stronger as Dalit votes were higher. After using her, cunning Akales Yadav now says Mullayam will be PM as Yadav voters are in higher % in coming phases.
PM Modi called Akales' bluff of backroom deal with Congress.
Ramdas Athavale, NDA leader from Maharashtra offers Defence Ministry post to Mayawati.
It seems Dalit voters have deserted SP-BSP big time and they want to get even the Ch*** Dalits into the BJP good for the next 3 phases.
Video from outside my house, from Deoghar (Godda LS, Jharkhand)
Roadshow of popular MP Nishikant Dubey, who is facing the of the most difficult fight as internal sabotage from BJP rebel from my caste, heavy ganging of 4 party Mahagathbandhan and yet he will prevail just like Modi
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