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RECAP monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI surveys Mar2019 thread 1/n (probably 30)

• Global confidence still at 2.5Y low
• EU fresh 6Y low
• EM rebound to 8M h
• HOWEVER, Global RiskOn 4th mth on CB verbal interventions
2/n update Global M.PMI YoY heatmap

• quite obvious, the weaker the confidence, the earlier global central banks try to intervene to keep the stretched cycle longer.
3/n update Global M.PMI level vs YoY momentum relative to their global GDP contribution
4/n global M.PMI DM vs EM baskets 5Y rolling PCTL and other data

• overall global confidence sits at 31M low or 10th pctl
• Europe, Germany at the bottom and clearly in recession territory
• UK got a nice boost
• EM got a lift, with Russia, China better, HU+CZ close EU ties
5/n update Global M.PMI "breadth"

• global weakness outright, just barely hovering above 50, global central banks already intervening
6/n update Global M.PMI "world"

• Global just > 50, 2.5y low
• DM ditto
• EM picks up, 8M h
7/n Global M.PMI pctl and vs BDI

• dire confidence hitting low pctl
• Baltic Dry Index Y/Y basis reflects M.PMI Y/Y momentum
8/n update Global M.PMI "big4 regions"

• China barely moved back above 50, was THE headline this week on CNBC/BBG...
• meanwhile, US made new low (MarkIt), and Europe keeps falling
9/n update Global M.PMI vs ACWI and EEM

• EM improved, matching EEM
• World stocks ACWI already way ahead after global CB verbal interventions, means PMI lagging ?
10/n update Global M.PMI vs commodities : CL & NG

11/n update Global M.PMI vs CMDTY : Dr Copper and Prof Palladium

"cycles" vs "diesel"
12/n update US ISM vs SPX & US10Y

• SPX leading and diverging
• US bonds rallied hard as expected
13/n update US ISM & SPX vs Credit risk change
14/n update US ISM & SPX vs Implied Stock vola (smoothed)

thanks to the FED
15/n update EUROPE "big4"

Germany 44-handle ... but -2.7 StDev and 5Y rolling 2pctl.

but that's recession territory
16/n update European M.PMI Y/Y vs STXX and EUR
17/n update Europe M.PMI Y/Y vs Credit risk change and implied stock vola

massive dislocation of confidence vs market expectations now
18/n update Germany & france M.PMI Y/Y vs DAX and CAC
19/n update Italy & Spain M.PMI Y/Y vs MIB and IBEX
20/n update UK M.PMI vs FTSE and Cable
21/n in this context some outright charts: SPX NDX DOW RUT

• as FED is THE key driver, and SPX lifting all global boats... RUT is lagging and probably the next to move
22/n some more US chart in the context : VIX US10 YieldCurve

• implied vola crushed (globally)
• bonds rallied (globally)
• yieldcurve flattend (globally)

this is relevant for later
23/n US yield curve vs spread DJT/DJI
24/n thats it for now
25/n @threadreaderapp please unroll , thx

happy #TGIF everyone
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