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Let's analyse how this trolley problem has been solved in the parts of present-day world where informed consent is not an option.

(TW: injustice, carnage, suicide.)
There's this prevalent assumption that before a child can access trans health services -- at least hormones, often even puberty blockers -- some sort of authority figure, a gate-keeper, must have made damn sure that they're TruTrans.
Why is this so important? Well, supposedly, a child might be mistaken about their gender identity. In other words, they might be a cis child, even though they want to transition, and supposedly, it's the gate-keeper's job to make sure a cis child will not suffer #WrongHormones.
On the other hand, the currently dominant protocols on treating trans children call for _considering_ puberty blockade only after Tanner stage 2 of puberty has began. The way to detect is by measuring the blood levels of a child's intrinsic sex hormones.
How fast after the intrinsic hormones go up to the level that starts puberty can the doctor detect it? Would they check the blood levels daily? Weekly?

Of course not. That would be impractical. At best, the blood tests would be monthly. Three months are probably likelier.
So, in the _best_ scenario, a trans child will suffer a month or two of #WrongHormones, before they will be considered for puberty blockade. Perhaps as long as about five months. And that's provided the doctor is eagerly waiting for the proper time, which might not be the case.
Everybody knows that puberty is a potent source of dysphoria in trans children. Yet, this delay is "okay", because if the child should turn out cis, they will be likely to reconsider when their puberty starts. A few months of #WrongHormones doesn't seem to cause Lasting Damage.
In a sense, this process amounts to diagnosing cis modality by applying treatment 'intrinsic hormones' and seeing if it helps. A long time ago, trans modality could be diagnosed in a similar way: prescribe hormones, and if they help the patient, they're probably trans.
To recap, what would happen if a hypothetical confused cis child were to be given the hormones they seek?

They would develop dysphoria in a few months if not weeks. They would stop the treatment. They would have gone through exactly what _every_ trans child must go through ...
under the present protocols. Lasting harm? None! By the very standard that tells us trans kids can tolerate a few months of #WrongHormones.

In order to prevent this scenario, a complex mechanism for "rattling" trans children, to make sure they're "really" trans, has been set up.
How likely is it for a child to go through transition and regret it afterwards?

We don't really know. Some transphobes like to quote the statistics that about 80% of gender-nonconformant children "desist". That's not quite applicable here, though, because a child who finds ...
that cross-sex hormones hurt them instead of helping them would usually rapidly stop the treatment, with no lasting harm, as we saw, and not actually complete the transition.

It's probably a better approximation to use the 1:100 estimate of adults who, having gone through ...
their transition, including miscellaneous surgeries, are reported to express regrets. Sure, most of them don't regret transition per se, just the mishaps that can happen in a complex surgery. So, let's say that the upper limit of the probability of regret is 1%.
In order to prevent that 1% risk of regret, complex establishments such as Tavistock institute delays and hurdles in children's quest for their authentic puberty.

What is the regret rate of #WrongPuberty?
Estimates vary. Somewhere between 33%-60% of untreated trans children regret #WrongPuberty so much that they attempt suicide at least once. Some, perhaps many, succeed.

To recap, out of every hundred children going through the gate-keeping procedure, ...
the cost of a false positive is one or less case of regret, and the cost of a false negative is 33 or more cases of attempted suicide.

A system that thinks this is just and proper assigns _at least_ a 33-fold value to a cis child than to a trans child's life.
This, of course, is rubbish. A trans kid is as valuable as a cis kid. Whoever thinks that it's better to risk 33 deaths than one, as long as the one saved kid is cis, is not just a transphobe but also a raging sociopath.
There aren't many classic trolley problems in real life, but this is one of them. And in the world as it sucks, it has been resolved in a deeply immoral, unjust way.
That's the "reason" for stealing from @CateSpice, and myself, and millions of other trans kids, our girlhoods or boyhoods. That's how a horrible death count, and a massive loss of quality of life, is "justified".

The end.
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