, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
(1) Today's William Barr show bothered many people. Besides listening to shameless GOP Reps attempt to protect Trump & Putin, I'm OK with the Barr piece. I'm still convinced a Trump resignation deal is on the table, pre-report or pre-indictment. Quick bullet points why, follow:
(2) 16 Reasons why a Trump exit may be on the table:
1 Mueller handed off cases & report contents to US Attys
2 Grand Jury is “robust”
3 A 3 Week lag time creates time to negotiate
4 Trump’s recent maniacal behavior is how he would act if negotiations for his exit were developing
(3) 16 Reasons
5 NYT- “Trump is tired & may not run in 2020”
6 Barr said, “First pass at the report”- There is a Report 2.0 coming
7 Barr wouldn't say if he briefed T on the report. Meaning they talked
8 Barr wouldn’t say if T saw his letter
Note: A deal is Barr's defense for 7&8
(4) 16 Reasons
9 Trump's presence would be a Nat Sec issue during a report & indictments
10 Barr must do enough to look like a Trump ally as T watches on TV
11 Trump's advancing dementia is closing his window for a deal
12 Mueller's Report will come out no matter what Barr does
(5) 16 Reasons:
13 Barr would crack under pressure if he truly is trying to engineer a massive coverup. Many people already know what the crimes are
14 Putin is controlling Trump
15 CI investigation will be worse than Mueller Report
16 Trump's exit will eliminate pardon power
(6) If Dems were thrilled with Barr, Trump wouldn't trust him. Barr's arrogance clouds the analysis of his behavior. He bleeds GOP, but he couldn't pull off a massive coverup if he wanted to. Looking tough w/ Dems is exactly what Trump wants to see & it keeps Barr in the game.
(7) Good Cop / Bad Cop theory- To make a deal, Barr must gain Trump's trust. If Trump thinks Barr is the Good Cop protecting him & Mueller is the Bad Cop, it could create a setting where Barr tells Trump or Rudy the bad report news & they should cut a deal
(8) A possible End Game sequence:
1 Tell Trump & Rudy how bad the report is
2 Give them a chance to negotiate a Trump exit
3 Deal or no deal, the Report is released. It's Bad.
4 Give Trump another chance to negotiate an exit
5 If no deal, indictments hit, including family members
(9) Possible End Game:
6 Terrible info is released in indictments & Mueller Report 2.0
7 Parts of CI Investigation released- info is worse than Mueller report
8 NYAG Indicts Trump family
9 Impeachment hearings begin, removing Trump’s pardon power
10 20 GOP Senators tell T to quit
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