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Absolutely! To be clear, if you are going to be voting on partly lines in the upcoming European Elections, we have already lost! #Thread
UKIP's rise in the last European Elections was meteoric! They only didn't stand in seats they didn't poll well in the election before.
This is despite the fact that the EU average turnout was lowering across member states and the UK traditionally being lower than the EU average
There was a change to the European elections in 1999, which saw European parliamentary elections start to use proportional representation. This is actually where UKIP's Nigel Farage got the idea for PR. He advocates for it because it gives him a voice, a pay-cheque & a pension
As each EU expansion happened, the seats contested were recalculated to account for the new member states. This has traditionally included a cap on the number of seats Germany has as the most populous nation. Reducing its power (not increasing it, as UKIP would have you believe)
UKIP are honed. They are the UKs most popular national party. Beating both Labour & Conservatives by some margin. Worryingly maxing every area bar Humberside, London & Scotland & NI - where they didn't run

(map shows regional vote by party & number of seats won)
The worrying thing is both the size of the vote UKIP has (they are not small numbers), but also that Europhilic parties split votes in such a way as to give UKIP the biggest share of 6 of the 8 seats. With only London's Labour performance beating UKIP by a safe enough margin
These leave us with a few key conclusions.

1. The Rise of UKIP happened in a context of falling general participation. While other parties also increased in that time, but not as much as UKIP.
2. Most of the UKIP vote was gleaned from Conservatives voters. As that was the only majority party to lose votes in 2014 v 2009. An obvious protest vote, but one that will certainly look to appear this time again.
So the strategy is simple enough. People MUST vote! The larger parties must be given enough votes to wipe UKIP out. In addition, the other side must also be made to split their vote amongst Conservative and A N Other (Britain First?).
As it stands now, the Europhiles need to work to consolidate their vote in each of the relevant areas. If your region's dominant party is Labour, say & you vote Green or LibDem, where your party support is under UKIP, you're gifting UKIP a seat. But if higher, you want more!
I'll come on to the way seats are allocated in another subthread. But taking Scotland as an example (highlighted above). The SNP were the biggest party with Labour second. The seat distribution is like this.
What would have happened if the Europhile parties combined or their voters voted tactically?

Well, let's let Green stand with Labour. This would have wiped out UKIP in Scotland.
However, if LibDems had sided with, say, SNP, this would NOT have wiped out the Conservatives....
Indeed, if LibDem had voted with Labour it would NOT have wiped out the conservatives.

There is an equation for all this, which I'm putting somewhere else while at the day job. But for now, this is sufficient to exemplify the issue.

There's a major conclusion.
For Remainers, if we are looking to tactically vote to remove UKIP, which we should be, then splitting our vote, especially by backing party lines, is lethal! In addition, we need to get out and vote! /tbc
(PS I'll redo the thread when I've stopped juggling. There are a few missing bits I want to fit in)
(cont'd) One of the first missing bit is this. If you already have a Remain MEP, keep your Remain MEP. But note, they may be in the minority, so risk falling out in the battle when previous non-voters jump in. Hence why they need protecting.

Also, contextually, as a comparison of the parties in each region, as I step into a deeper dive on each region. Some areas, like the SE, are so BluKIP heavy it needs a massive push. Indeed, to wipe out UKIP would be impossible without voting Tory

I know, vomit!
But pockets like London must push for Lab really hard. It makes no different on 2014 numbers for example & London's turnout is just over the national average.
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