, 24 tweets, 23 min read Read on Twitter
1. I have to decided to address the math underlying the proof below.

First, (in Q parlance) [0] delta tweets are tweets in which @realdonaldtrump tweets and Q posts at virtually the same time.

Practically, this means a 1-2 minute window.

#qanon #maga #wwg1wga
2. This is because of lags in network traffic, server load, device performance, etc. Even if sent simultaneously the time stamp will still vary by a few seconds at least. Anyone who has sat waiting for an email they just sent, understands this.

#qanon #maga #wwg1wga
3. So, when I have discussed this with others, most have used a 2 minute window. Both the Poisson distribution and the binomial distribution have been explored. The result I thought most accurate and quoted in the past was based on the Poisson Distribution.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
4. That result was: Odds < 0.003. (for the proof below)

Although true, this is not the most accurate result.

I have recently recalculated based on today's data using the binomial distribution. I will share my process and results so others may replicate it.
#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
5. Ok, let's talk odds:

If I roll 1 die, the odds of getting a 6 on a given roll, is the AVERAGE desired outcomes over possible outcomes, or 1 over 6 (1/6th).

If I roll 2 dice, the odds of BOTH coming up 6 is the MULTIPLE of their INDIVIDUAL odds or 1/36th.#qanon #maga #wwg1wga
6. Q first posted on 10/28/2017. Each 2 minute interval since that time is equivalent to a dice roll. Trump's tweets are one die. Q's drops are the other.

Each has a unique probability of posting in a given 2min period, based on their historic frequency.

#qanon #maga #wwg1wga
7. The first task was to count Q's drops and Trump's tweets. I got the tweets from trumptwitterarchive.com and the drops from qanon.pub. As of my calculation today, there have been 5,292 tweets and 3,312 drops since 10/28/2017.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
8. So, the unique probability of Trump tweeting in the next 2 minutes (the dice roll) is: 0.013712687
And, the unique probability of a Q drop in the next 2 minutes is: 0.00858209

The SIMULTANEOUS probability ([0] Delta) is: 0.000117684 or 1 in 8,497.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
9. So far, fine. The odds are low of a Zero Delta Tweet in the next two minutes.

But, skeptics are quick to point out that over the course of 17 months, surely SOME [0] Delta Tweets will occur.

True. The odds of at least 1 occurring is basically 100%

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
10. Which is why this PARTICULAR proof is important. Because the odds of 3 OCCURRING IN A SINGLE DAY, are very very low.

Further, the drops occur IN EACH CASE BEFORE the tweets. So, this is not being done by software.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
11. So, let's evaluate using the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution is frequently used to calculate the probability and cumulative probability of a desired random outcome over a series of trials.

Review the image:

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
12. The next image is the table of inputs and results for the binomial distribution of 3 [0] Delta Tweets in a 24 hour period (2 minute interval).

I used this calculator: stattrek.com/online-calcula…

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
13. So, the actual odds of exactly 3 [0] Delta Tweets (2 minute window) occurring BY RANDOM CHANCE in a single day is AT MOST 1 in 10,776.

Or, LESS THAN 0.0093%

In other words, highly unlikely.

Why do I say "at most" 1 in 10,776 and "less than" 0.0093%?

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
14. Because time is contiguous and nearly infinitely subdivisible, smaller selected intervals decrease the likelihood of simultaneous events. This is expressable with calculus but unnecessary for this proof.

The same formula run on a 1 minute interval:

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
15. Let's look again at the proof:

The intervals are: 13 secs, 33 secs, and 45 secs.

All UNDER one minute.

The 1 minute interval is the correct one for evaluating this proof.

Which means the odds of the proof OCCURRING SOLELY BY CHANCE are 1 in 82,483.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
16. This is HIGHLY unlikely.

The Q Drops are first EVERY time.

This is not merely a case of revising the post time to a time prior to the Tweet of Trump.

Q posts are scraped IN REAL TIME by numerous apps and websites. This fact prevents data fiddling.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
17. Let's take a look at what Q has to say about it:


Did we hit [0:00]?
We do try.

Q is letting us know they are TRYING for [0] Deltas.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
18. Q demonstrates an exact ONE YEAR Delta. The odds against this are astronomical.

I'm not even sure how to start calculating it.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
20. And here we see the 3 [0] Delta graphic request and the final formatted proof.


Q understood that based on the binomial distribution the zero delta tweets over time were insufficiently convincing.

After all, they could occur by chance.

#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
21. By triggering 3 [0] Delta Tweets in a 24 hour period they created an event that could be conclusively analyzed using the basic binomial distribution formula.

Which I have just done.

And, yet, many will plausibly deny.

Which is the plan.

Trust the plan.

Quick PostScript:

These results satisfy the 68-95-99.7 rule. Because their coincidence is outside of 3 standard deviations, it is statistically improbable that the two events are unrelated.

In other words, NOT a coincidence.


#maga #qanon #wwg1wga
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