Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Yet another set of cranky retired professors makes waves 'proving' diesel is better than electric vehicles for the climate.
Unfortunately many journalists copy their opinion.

Let's use an Easter sunday afternoon to debunk this myth, again.
Probably not for the last time :-(

Summary of the major errors (details later):

1) In reality the battery far outlasts the car.
'study' assumes replacement after 150 000 kilometers.

2 In reality electricity over the lifetime of the car emits less than 300 grams of CO2 per kWh.
'study' assumes 650 grams.

3) In reality Mercedes C220d emits ~220 grams/km.
'study' assumes 141 grams CO2/kWh.

4) In reality battery production emits 65-100 kg CO2 per kWh.
'study' assumes 177 kg CO2 per kWh.

Honorary mention: energy needed for diesel motor, exhaust system etc. is ignored.

Some have presented this as an academic study. It is not. It is the opinion of three people, two of which happen to be retired professors (one a well known economist) and none of whom have any background in the (electric) car industry or batteries.

Unfortunately, CES and ifo are reputable institutes so when a former head of ifo publishes something on the website, people take note.
(I'm guessing next time ifo will probably double-check everything he writers before they put it on the website.)
cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/presse…

To be clear: I'm not the first debunker, just the first in English.

Focus online: "ifo calculates EVs are bad, and makes many mistakes"
focus.de/auto/elektroau…

Wirtshaftswoche: "What Hans-Werner Sinn overlooked"
wiwo.de/technologie/mo…

Last example:

Electrive: Experts detox 'study' as unscientific Opinion piece
electrive.net/2019/04/20/exp…

Error 1: "car battery lasts 150 000 km".
That's just 300 cycles.

In reality: even Tesla's from the olden days can drive 600 000 km before the battery reaches 80% capacity. steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tes…

And laboratories peg it closer to 3000 cycles and on the way to 10 000.

Error 2: "650 grams of CO2 per kWh"

In reality it is certainly possible to conjure this up for parts of current Germany. But the EU average is much lower (450 grams) and more importantly: an EV drives 20 years and electricity gets cleaner over this period.

I can't stress this enough: you can't take emissions of a machine that is used for 20 years using just the first year. It's sloppy.

Most serious studies assume less than 200 grams per kWh in 2030.

So 650 grams over the lifetime is ludacrous.

See also:

https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1083705012080074753

Error 3: "Mercedes C220d emits 141 grams per kWh"

They take the lowest possible estimate for refining diesel.
More importantly: they use the widely discredited NEDC values that are on average 40% too low because carmakers cheat.

I even went on national Dutch TV to explain how bad it is. But they haven't heard anything? Not reassuring.

If you take EPA or (my favorite) the roadtests of spritmonitor.de and you add 24% for refineries and transport you get 221 grams per kWh (NOT 141).

Error 4: "battery production emits 177 kg CO2/kWh"

They used the now infamous "Swedish study" for this and I can only agree with @elonmusk here.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/877029802758201344

The best studies that I used in my last debunk put it at 100 kg CO2/kWh but that's an old number too.

My industry source (who wants to remain anonymous but has been very trustworthy pegs it at 65 kg CO2/kWh and falling.

See also the blog I wrote here:
innovationorigins.com/correcting-mis…

So correct all these errors and you get something similar to an earlier comparison I did for the Netherlands:

To summarize: EVs only emit more CO2 if you make unrealistically negative assumptions for battery production, battery life and electricity mix while making unrealistically positive assumption about diesel consumption.

Correct ANY of these and the tables are turned. Bigly.

More rebuttals are coming in (ht @nworbmot):
Der Spiegel: spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/e…
Don Dahlman: dondahlmann.de/?p=25331
Umweltbundesambt refers to this: agora-verkehrswende.de/veroeffentlich…
And I got calls from multiple media outlets. So I think the debunking is going well.

@nworbmot This sums up the rebuttals so far including some new ones (ht @RR_com_ )
chargedevs.com/newswire/here-…