Introducing SOPR: spent outputs to predict bitcoin local lows and tops. The SOPR is calculated from spent outputs. It's the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (in USD) of the output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. medium.com/@renato_shira/… 
When SOPR > 1, it means that the owners of the spent outputs got profit from the operation. Otherwise, losses. The bull market seems to reject SOPR below 1, and the bear market to reject SOPR above 1.
People in general are much more comfortable selling when they are in profits. In a bull market, when SOPR becomes less than 1, people would sell in a loss, so they don't sell as easily. So the supply goes significantly down. Less supply, prices are pushed higher.
In a bear market, everyone is selling or waiting for the "breakeven" point to sell. When SOPR is close/greater than 1, people start to sell even more, as they reached breakeven. More supply, prices plunge.
From this, we can speculate that the SOPR value is actually is influencing price changes.
Interesting things to notice:
- Daily SOPR averages suggests the bull run is starting
- Daily SOPR averages also suggests the capitulation in 2018 was pretty nasty. Yes, there were pain
Interesting things to notice:
- Daily SOPR averages suggests the bull run is starting
- Daily SOPR averages also suggests the capitulation in 2018 was pretty nasty. Yes, there were pain
Zomming in current state (7d sma SOPR)
[UPDATE] Current State of SOPR (7d sma)
[UPDATE] Current State of SOPR (7d median). I'm starting to use median instead of sma now
