Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Apr 28, 2019 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Here's a quick illustration of why striking down MI's GOP gerrymander might not necessarily boost House Dems. Take this pretty compact map for example 1/ Image
The problem for Dems is: once you draw two AA-majority Detroit districts, there are four suburban Dem incumbents vying for the limited blue turf in the suburbs: #MI08 Slotkin, #MI09 Levin, #MI11 Stevens, #MI12 Dingell. 2/
In this hypothetical remedial map, Stevens gets a safe Dem #MI11 in Oakland County and #MI12 Dingell keeps a safe Dem #MI12 in Ann Arbor/suburban Wayne Co. 3/
In this scenario, Slotkin's home in Holly (northern Oakland) would get drawn into a new safely R #MI11. She'd likely move west to run in a more Lansing-centric district that's slightly more Democratic than her current one. Arguably positive for her. 4/
BUT, Levin would face a choice between running vs. Stevens in a safely Dem #MI11 or running in a very competitive Macomb-centric #MI09. He'd likely run in #MI09, but given Macomb's trendline Rs could be competitive there. 5/
Long story short, this kind of "un-gerrymandered" remedial map could ease reelection paths for some Dems, but make life more difficult for others. And it wouldn't necessarily create new pickup opportunities for Dems. 6/
Even if everything went right for Dems in 2020 under this kind of map, they'd probably just retain the 7-7 split they earned under the R gerrymander in 2018. That in itself would qualify as a win, but not a total game-changer. /end
Sorry, new safely R #MI08
The legislative maps, on the other hand, are another story.

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More from @Redistrict

Jul 3
Thread: the key difference between when Biden was “counted out” last time vs. now is that in Feb. 2020, there was a plausible path to a comeback: Black voters & other Dems of color in SC, etc. hadn’t weighed in yet.
In fact, I made the argument after IA/NH in 2020 that there was still a lot of upside for Biden, though that view wasn’t widely shared at the time, and that he was among the most electable Dems in the race vs. Trump. nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…
Today, a vast majority of voters believe Biden is incapable of finishing a second term, and there’s no legitimate reason to believe that defect will go away or become less of a dealbreaker for voters in the next four months.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14, 2023
How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.

Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).

But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.

On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Read 5 tweets
May 11, 2022
On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster (R) is on track to lose the #NEGOV GOP primary badly.
Herbster doing a little better with more Trump-aligned EDay votes reporting, but still not on track to win. #NEGOV
Never underestimate the Trumpiness of the EDay vote. Still a long way to go in #NEGOV.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3, 2022
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:

- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28, 2022
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Read 4 tweets

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