, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Both @realDonaldTrump & the GOP and the Democrats

Want to pass a major infrastructure bill of at least $1 trillion (probably over 10/years), though truthfully we need more like $3-$4 trillion over 10 years.


Trump wants it passed without new taxes, the Dems will only
pass it if new taxes are involved


Infrastructure bills (designed and implemented well) will take about 8-12 months after being passed to start stimulating more economic growth (new jobs, etc.) and mostly help with long-term growth

New taxes would take effect immediately
or by January 2019 and start impacting the economy adversely

So if Trump passes the infrastructure bill with Dems in a bi-partisan way, with new taxes involved

He's actually hurting the economy short-term, thereby hurting his chances in 2020

By the time Dems take the
Presidency (if they do) in January 2021, the stimulative impact of the infrastructure bill will help with economic growth 2021-2025, thereby helping their chances again in 2024.

This would make the Dems look like they managed to get something good done even with the likes
of a Donald Trump, it would raise revenue, and the infrastructure bill will definitely help economic growth (whatever it may look like) over a decade's time.

So Trump wants the infrastructure bill without new taxes because even though it'll still take 8-12 months to come into
effect for stimulus purposes, the stock market will be able to look on it positively and a lot of business people will have increased confidence as they will see now tax hikes, yet benefit from improved infrastructure.

This will help propel Trump to a 2020 victory.

For these
reasons, the infrastructure bill is at a standstill.

Of course, there are also debates about how much to invest in which kinds of infrastructure--you have big oil battling big green energy (though not as much because big oil owns a good chunk of big green now), and much more.
But if the Dems win in 2020 and there is no infrastructure bill under Trump, they will gladly pass that same infrastructure bill without new taxes.

Because if the economy is still growing at that point in time, they will want to stimulate it further and hope to keep the music
playing until 2024 so they can win again....the same way Trump needs to keep the music going now so he can win 2020.

Trump can't afford to raise taxes, especially because if the economy continues growing, the Fed could start raising rates again even as the price of oil goes up
And these three things going up in tandem would be very, very bad for main street USA and the our economy.
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