, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Now it is an increasingly plausible scenario that BJP is getting absolute majority on it is own, up from 260-265 levels a month back, a thread dedicated to what went right for BJP, which faced embarrassing defeats in 3 Hindi heartland states against 'weak' Congress, months ago.
Major reasons why BJP was slipping ground:
1. Draconian SC/ST act hurt core constituency
2. Traders were angry with GST (NOT with Demonization)
3. Middle class was fed up
4. Pro Hindu voices disenchanted
5. Raga setting narrative
Only bright side was socialist schemes for Modi.
As a knee jerk reaction, the 1st thing BJP did was to get UC reservation of 10%, which despite a token, was good enough to pacify angry UC support let's who had deserted BJP and brought them back. Ofcourse some Nawabi and slave UCs continue to support Congress as ever before
Next it targeted to who where pacified, not to a great extent but enough to swing them back. The new e-commerce laws aimed to balance the undue power, online players were enjoying plus easing some norms of GST. Plus they were informed of the other option who would be extortionist
The 3rd in line was Middle class. Despite being a lame duck budget, interim Finance Minister stole the show, when for the 1st time any FM thanked the honest tax payers and productive classes and announced lower tax slabs for lower middle class.
And boom
For Pro Hindu, Pakistan (possibly in connivance with internal hostile powers) ensured Pulwama to puncture Modi's narrative of strong stand against terror but the retaliation was heavy.
Balakot airstrikes created equivalent (not equal) charge in pro Hindu voters as Ram Mandir
All of it led to setting narrative. Media management of Modi in 2019 has been oar excellence, better than even 2014.
Started interviews with English channels when southern states were poll bound. Moved to ABP (Majha and Ananda), then to Ask Tak, India TV and Z news for Hindi belt
And finally the socialist schemes
Housing Yojna, to Ujjwala Yojna, toilet Yojna and many others created a new constituency of voters. This in addition to the fact that Modi was able to bring back all 4 sets of disgruntled voters to his fold. So the new ones acted as a top up
Bottomline, this time Modi led BJP will get significantly higher number of votes. Atleast 3-4% higher than 2014 and may be higher seat counts as well.
The base case scenario is 250 and might as well breach 300 seats.
#BiggerWaveThan2014
Congress backed Media has been trying to create a sense of hung Parliament to create panic among BJP rank and files and ensure demotivation in last 2 phases so that BJP gets stranded below 260. I did a whole thread yesterday to alleviate it using LOGIC and FACTS.
Still they panic
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