1/ @PatrickKingsley and I unpack the Orban–Trump powwow scheduled for this coming Monday. Some stuff that didn't make it into the piece in the tweets below👇👇👇
nytimes.com/2019/05/12/wor…
nytimes.com/2019/05/12/wor…
2/ I spoke to a number of State Department officials to get the scoop on how they see the meeting. Their quotes to me (and published by me) here in following tweets. These officials, who asked that I not name them for obvious reasons, had this to say about the meeting:
3/ On concern that Mr. Trump would be duped by Mr. Orban during Monday’s high-level visit:
“Kim Jong Un played him for a fool. Vladimir Putin has played him for a fool, so Viktor Orban is going to play him for a fool as well.”
“Kim Jong Un played him for a fool. Vladimir Putin has played him for a fool, so Viktor Orban is going to play him for a fool as well.”
4/ Is Mr. Trump trying to embolden Europe's far-right with this meeting?
"I just don't think the President is sophisticated enough to try and thread that needle. I think he hears Orban's stance on migration, and he thinks this is a guy who I support, a guy I want to meet with.”
"I just don't think the President is sophisticated enough to try and thread that needle. I think he hears Orban's stance on migration, and he thinks this is a guy who I support, a guy I want to meet with.”
5/ On what Americans should know about the meeting:
“Essentially, we're treating someone who is at best a fair-weather friend and possibly not any kind of friend like our best friend. Again, what have they done to show us that what we request of them matters? It's hard to see.”
“Essentially, we're treating someone who is at best a fair-weather friend and possibly not any kind of friend like our best friend. Again, what have they done to show us that what we request of them matters? It's hard to see.”
6/ On whether A. Wess Mitchell’s policy of more engagement has produced more cooperation:
“I don't think a reasonable observer could assume that we will achieve a different result with this meeting now that we have given away the store. We have no more carrots.”
“I don't think a reasonable observer could assume that we will achieve a different result with this meeting now that we have given away the store. We have no more carrots.”
7/ What American’s should know about Orban gov't:
“Viktor Orban's government continues to conclude secretive deals with the Russian Federation [with the IIB]….which will undoubtably be used as a Russian spy base in Hungary and threatens the whole of the NATO alliance.”
“Viktor Orban's government continues to conclude secretive deals with the Russian Federation [with the IIB]….which will undoubtably be used as a Russian spy base in Hungary and threatens the whole of the NATO alliance.”
8/ On Orban's treatment of US interests:
"Orban ignores US interests. Anytime the Hungarian government been given a chance to choose US, NATO, or EU interest over those of the Russians and Chinese, he's chosen the Russian and Chinese interests.
"Orban ignores US interests. Anytime the Hungarian government been given a chance to choose US, NATO, or EU interest over those of the Russians and Chinese, he's chosen the Russian and Chinese interests.
9/ On Orban's treatment of US interests:
"Depends on who you ask. If you talk to people who are looking objectively, it's that they're not doing anything, or not anything that they wouldn't do on their own."
"Depends on who you ask. If you talk to people who are looking objectively, it's that they're not doing anything, or not anything that they wouldn't do on their own."
10/ On A. Wes Mitchell's strategy with Hungary:
"It was worth a try, and we've seen what happened. People who believe there's still a possibility to achieve our policy objectives are either diluted or clueless."
"It was worth a try, and we've seen what happened. People who believe there's still a possibility to achieve our policy objectives are either diluted or clueless."
11/ On whether Mr Trump is trying to embolden Europe's far-right:
"I just don't think there's that much thought going in to it. I wouldn't give Trump enough credit to be that strategic, to say that the EU elections are coming up and he wants to bolster the far-right."
"I just don't think there's that much thought going in to it. I wouldn't give Trump enough credit to be that strategic, to say that the EU elections are coming up and he wants to bolster the far-right."
12/ How this meeting will play out:
"You can look at what's happening with North Korea, and it's the same thing at work here."
"You can look at what's happening with North Korea, and it's the same thing at work here."
13/ On David Cornstein's success as US Ambassador in Budapest:
"[The US gov has] achieved zero progress on any of his stated priorities since [Cornstein arrived in Budapest in] Summer 2018."
"[The US gov has] achieved zero progress on any of his stated priorities since [Cornstein arrived in Budapest in] Summer 2018."
14/ What impact will that have on US efforts in Hungary?
"A meeting with the President of the United States assigns the US government's seal of approval to Viktor Orban. Consequently, we lose credibility with our Hungarian interlocutors."
"A meeting with the President of the United States assigns the US government's seal of approval to Viktor Orban. Consequently, we lose credibility with our Hungarian interlocutors."
15/ How would you explain this situation to an American?
"President Trump has called himself a 'winner.' He's called his policies 'winning' approaches, called foreign and domestic policies 'winning' policies. He has called someone to the White House as a reward for losing."
"President Trump has called himself a 'winner.' He's called his policies 'winning' approaches, called foreign and domestic policies 'winning' policies. He has called someone to the White House as a reward for losing."
16/ On whether Mr Trump sees that this meeting might give a boost to Europe's far-right:
"I don't think he understands the import of the EP elections....I just don't think Trump is capable of understanding that."
"I don't think he understands the import of the EP elections....I just don't think Trump is capable of understanding that."
17/ Will the meeting undercut US diplo efforts to promote US interests in HU:
"With this out of the way, if the relationship sours, there's not a lot we can do. There's certainly nothing we can do in terms of incentives. Under this new policy we are not going to use any sticks."
"With this out of the way, if the relationship sours, there's not a lot we can do. There's certainly nothing we can do in terms of incentives. Under this new policy we are not going to use any sticks."
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