, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Will come down to how the economy is doing come November 2020. In February 21, only 21% of people said they’d definitely vote against George H W Bush but he lost to Clinton, partly due to the sluggish economy and the recession he oversaw.
2. In fact both POTUS with historically low opposition to reelection, GHW Bush and Jimmy Carter ended up losing partly due to the poor economy on their watch.
3. Trump jobs report card in one chart: Robust growth in computer/professional services jobs (driven by Silicon Valley tech giants), manufacturing, not so great showing in traditional retail (driven by tech giants like Amazon as more people are using it vs brick/mortar stores).
4. Factor in record low unemployment in key swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it makes it tricky for Democratic challengers to campaign on raising taxes (cost GHW Bush the WH in ‘92), which could be viewed by some voters as harming the economy.
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