- AfD result only 3 points up on 2014, before migration crisis
- First ever Germany-wide election where Greens bigger than SPD
- Early indication that the big story of #EP2019 will be not "populists triumph" but pan-spectrum fragmentation
- Europeanisation of some debates eg migration, climate
- Trump, Brexit & sense can't take EU for granted
- better EU & civil society get-out-the-vote ops
- anti-EU→EU-reformist shift by eurosceptics
FPÖ: down on 2014
AfD: little higher than pre-surge 2014 result
Wilders: massive fall
Predictably, #EP2019 proving more complicated than "march of the populists" narrative.
Take Denmark, where support for right-populist DPP has collapsed but social democrats (nowadays DPP-lite on migration & identity) have come 1st.
- EPP-S&D "grand coalition" loses its majority
- Greens become 4th largest group
- hard right ECR+ENF+EFDD = 22%
- mainstream(-ish) EPP+S&D+ALDE+Gs = 65%
EPP leads in central & eastern countries but now largely marginalised in a bow of western maritime states from Italy via Iberia and France to Benelux, Denmark & Sweden.
A sharp increase for Lega - which will be one of the biggest national parties in the new parliament.
1 reaffirm logic of largest party's candidate getting the job
2 dare the Council to call Parliament's bluff
Translation: If Weber & allies force Spitzenkandidat system on an unwilling Council it won't end well; better to pick a compromise candidate.
1) backing of Council versus Spitzenkandidat purists
2) wide coalition taking in socialists, greens, liberals and *some* EPP MEPs
Fragmentation, not a populist surge, the big story of the night.
My first take on the results: