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Vote fragmentation in the #EUelections2019, a hopefully-not-too-long thread:

So after a day crunching the numbers and colouring in maps it is clear that the splitting of both the Remain vote and Leave vote on Thursday affected the final results quite drastically. 1/
First let’s look at the explicitly pro-No Deal parties, The Brexit Party and UKIP, as the picture is more straightforward and the changes less extreme. 2/
(I shan’t be including the Conservatives in this because they are, or at least were at the time we voted, offering something very different to No Deal and, according to Lord Ashcroft’s poll, received votes primarily for non-Brexit reasons.) 3/
A few people have claimed that UKIP cost the Brexit Party seats. When we look at the numbers this turns out to be true. This is the result we all know and love/hate:
If everyone who voted for UKIP instead had lent their vote to the Brexit Party (and nothing else changed), this would have been the result:
The map doesn’t change colours but the Brexit Party would have gained an additional four seats, at the expense of the Lib Dems, Labour, and the Conservatives (pushing the latter into 6th place behind the SNP). It’s not a huge change but it’s significant. 6/
Now for the explicitly Remain UK-wide parties - the Lib Dems, the Greens, and ChangeUK. Labour aren’t included here for the same reasons I didn’t include the Tories above - they offer something different and didn’t receive votes because of Brexit policy:
As we know, pooling these parties encounters problems (people voting for reasons other than Brexit, people who like one but hate another etc.) but it’s probably fairly accurate to say if they had run as a big Remain Alliance their vote share wouldn’t have changed drastically 8/
So if we pool all Remain votes behind one party and then rerun everybody’s favourite proportional voting system we end up with a map that looks like this:

(numbers +/- for Remain Alliance are compared to no of Remain MEPs actually elected)

It’s a massive change - 7 regions gain an additional Remain MEP and 4 switch from Brexit Party winning most votes to Remain. Remain win the most seats overall, jumping from 23 to 30. Brexit Party slip to 27. Once again the Conservatives finish behind the SNP
Also interesting to note that in 3 regions (NW England, SW England, East of England) the actual makeup of their MEPs doesn’t change (same no of Remain and Leave whatever) but they switch from Brexit to Remain wins. If we include Plaid in the Remain band Wales switches too.
How many of these gains for Remain would’ve been achieved with just ChUK votes going to the Lib Dems/The Greens I haven’t yet worked out but from what I’ve done so far it’s clear they had a similar effect of the Remain result as UKIP had on the Leave.
If we now pit all the Remain Parties (including SNP and Plaid for a simpler final showdown) against all the Leave Parties and once again leave aside the Tories and Labour, the result is somewhere between the two we’ve already seen:
Both Leave and Remain make gains and (thanks to SNP and Plaid votes) Remain come out narrowly ahead. The two “compromise” parties are decimated even further than they were in the real elections 14/
At some point I will do a map showing individual council areas and who would’ve won each in these different scenarios but I’ve had two sleepless nights in a row so that is for another day. 15/
I also know vote pooling isn’t a reliable exercise and that for a myriad of reasons this is unrealistic but we’ve also had people say for two years that 80% of us voted for Brexit in the last GE via party manifestos and that seems grossly more inaccurate than anything here 16/
So what have we learnt? Well we are very clearly still a very divided nation, and our views seem to be polarising more and more around two non-compromise options. (Not sure this is massive news but still...) 17/
But it’s also clear that the Remain camp could benefit hugely from working together - more than Brexit Party can from assimilating the last of UKIP. These elections were very good for Remain parties - but they could have been exceptional. 18/18

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