Thread by @patrickLSimpson

(Thread): I've spent quite some time looking at last summer of Trump's Presidential life.

I am CONVINCED that he will be gone by October 1st.

medium.com/@trumpwatchdog…

2. Impeachment IS coming, regardless of what anyone in House Leadership says. Pelosi's ppl probably strategizing day in/day out about what to do, and more importantly, how to sway Public Opinion so that more people support Impeachment.

If we do it too early, it will backfire.

3. Too late and we start affecting the election. Pelosi is also trying to play chicken with McConnell - One of the most brilliant/evil strategic minds in American congressional history.

I think we're waiting on the hearings next week, and more vote to hold ppl in contempt.

4. This summer, the Investigations are going to continue. Media Coverage will start to be more damning - because they're so far behind. Trump's approval ratings will go down. Mitch McConnell will be stuck about what to do.

How does he save his party while winning.

5. Does he stand by Trump and go scorched earth, knowing full well that Trump is a tinpot dictator who wants to use impeachment to consolidate power? Or does he want to join forces with Pelosi, force Trump out one way or another, and bank that will save his party forever?

6. Here's what "I" think is going to happen. Currently, Trump is enjoying an approval rating in the low 40's, which is where the support for impeachment also sits.

We're going to see the needle move dramatically over June and July, while the House holds impeachment hearings

7. I'm talking about a scenario where we see Trump polling at 30% approval and 50% for impeachment.

That is when more Fox News analysts will turn - and we've already seem start. Once Fox Goes, Mitch is not far behind.

8. Part of the Consideration we all have to keep in mind is that Trump could do something irrational on his way out. That thought terrifies Mitch. What if Trump had Pence resign and then decided spending a ridiculous amount of money to get his new VP

9: Scenario #1: McConnell, seeing the evidence mounting, could signal to Pence that he has to declare the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office, to save his party. He would only attempt this if he knew he had a majority of the Cabinet on his side, and won’t happen.

10: Scenario 2: Similar to 1, Pence resigns, and they force Trump to nominate Mitch’s handpicked nominee as VP, and then they kick him out. A comedy option here is if Trump gets wind that Mitch is about to set this in motion and resigns, handing the Pres to Pelosi. Also unlikely

Scenario 3: I call this the “Nightmare” scenario. Pelosi waits too long to approve an inquiry, which allows the Trump team to manage the media news cycle with stories about Deep State — and the needle moves in the wrong direction, so impeachment barely passes, goes nowhere

12: All of those are unlikely. I believe that the most likely scenario is that the news swings the needle 10 points as more people pay attention and Fox/Mitch decide getting rid of Trump is preferable.

Or his conference ignores him and removes.

13: We already see the cracks forming. Bret Beier, Shep Smith, Chris Wallace, Andrew Napolitano, And even Neil Cavuto have started to see it.

14: We know the Democrats will be voting unanimously, even Manchin. He’s not up for re-election until 2024 so he’s got nothing to fear.

15: We know Senate and House leadership would prefer to get this all done THIS year, because next year they’ll want a great candidate on top for the fight for the census and redistricting and the CNP push for theocracy.

16: Alabama: Shelby is one of the safest positions,in a state that loves the Pres. However, Shelby is part of the old guard and was very upset with the way Trump treated Sessions.

Still: only way he votes for Removal is if Polls shift so much, Mitch openly calls for removal.

17: Alaska: Both Senators refused to vote for Trump in 2016. Trump has a dead-even approval here so even a slight shift will be bad for him.

Murkowski is an easy vote for Removal, but Sullivan needs that slight shift....which will happen.

18: ARIZONA: Trump is NOT popular in Arizona, which is shifting to be a purple state. McSally has been critical of Trump in the past AND faces a tough re-election. Any shift in the polls and she will vote to remove.

19: Arkansas: Lost cause. Abandon all hope ye who enter here. Cotton will never vote to remove, but Boozman might if Mitch goes all in.

19: Colorado: Gardner is in the same situation as McSally, but no strong contender yet. like the Alaskan Senators he opted not to vote for Trump in 2016.

51-49 so far.

21: Florida: Marco Rubio would like nothing more than to remove Trump after all the 2016 nonsense (like Romney and Cruz) and he could run for President claiming he helped save the country Rick Scott is a Trumper to the highest degree.

52-48

22: Georgia: Perdue is a Trumper through and through, but Isaacson (like Shelby) is part of the old guard and would be a vote to remove if polls get so bad, Mitch turns.

23: Indiana: Todd Young has spent a lot of time at odds with the President and they clashed in 2016. Braun is in office because of Trump and would only switch if Mitch does.

24: Iowa: Grassley and Ernst are facing Issues due to Trump tariffs, he’s not popular in Iowa, and they will both vote for removal once the polls shift more.
55-45

25: Pat Roberts is retiring and has nothing left to lose. Plus, the KS Senators have been openly complaining about the trade War ruining farmers.

Roberts removes, Moran needs the polls to move mode, but he can easily justify it to his constituents.

56-44

26: Kentucky: Mitch would only turn if the polls show utter domination by the Dems, and he wants to take the lead to save the party. I can see that happening.
Rand Paul is a traitor.

27: Louisiana is hopeless.

Collins will flip in Maine. She’s in a blue state where Trump is unpopular and will have a hard opponent.

28: In Mississippi, Roger Wicker would probably follow Mitch if he made that decision, but Hyde Smith is a loyalist.

29: Missouri: Roy Blunt has come out hard multiple times against Trump. Trump isn’t popular here, so a shift in polls and we are at 58- 42

Hawley is a Trumpist.

kansascity.com/opinion/editor…

30: Montana: Steve Dianes is pretty conservative, but Montana Doesn’t like Trump and he’s been a voice of reason a few times. Expect him to vote for removal, especially if Bullock or Schweitzer go after him.

31: Nebraska - I half expect Sasse to be the first Rep to call for impeachment or even run against him. He’s been an outspoken critic of Trumps, and refused to vote for him.

Fischer called on him to drop out in 2016, but needs a polling shift

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/o…

32. North Carolina:

Thom Tillis is a "Maybe" because he's being challenged for being Too Pro Trump in a state Trump is underwater in.

Richard Burr screwed up, know it, and will try to make up for it by voting for Removal.

rollcall.com/news/campaigns…

33. North Dakota:

Over the past 3 months, Trump's support has cratered here, from +8 to +1. Both Senators are unlikely to turn on Trump, based on past statements, unless something big happens.

62-38

34: Ohio - Rob Portman is a moderate senator in a swing state. He will vote to Remove. This isn't the words of someone who will support him.

cincinnati.com/story/news/pol…

35: Oklahoma - Lankford is a no, but Inhofe is an old schooler and doesn't seem too fond of Trump. Still though, Inhofe will follow Mitch

thehill.com/policy/defense…

63-37

36. PA: Pat Toomey is a moderate senator in a swing state who doesn't like the President. He will vote to Remove.

politico.com/story/2018/06/…

64-36

37. SC: I honestly don't know what the hell is going on in Lindsay Graham's head. Kompromat? Trying to be friend the enemy? Who knows!

Tim Scott would probably vote to remove

cnn.com/2018/06/30/pol…

65-35

38: SD: MIke Rounds has a history of supporting Trump over everything, but Thune is a solid vote for Removal based off of past comments. Still not sure why he went to Russia last year though.

66-34

wnax.com/news/180081-sd…

39: Tennessee: Lamar Alexander is retiring, intelligent, is part of the old guard, and will vote to remove Trump.

Marsha Blackburn is probably a lost cause.

cnn.com/2019/02/28/pol…

40: Texas: Ted Cruz - See Rubio in Florida. It's all about revenge for him. Cornyn is about to have either Beto or Castro running against him, so he will have to figure something out. Trump has gone from +20 to +3 in Texas.

68-32

41: Utah: Romney is just ITCHING to remove Trump from office.

Remember this: He's everything Trump is not, AND He wants to hold Russia accountable.

He's also a potential Trump replacement should he get removed.
nytimes.com/video/us/polit…

42: Utah #2

Mike Lee didn't vote for and is critical of Trump. He will vote to remove.

70-30

thedailybeast.com/gop-senator-mi…

43: West Virginia: Capito won't remove,
Wisconsin: Johnson has no reason to remove, although he should.
Wyoming: Enzi might vote for Removal given he is retiring, but Barasso is all in

44: So, I think Trump will impeached 70-30, EVEN if Mitch chcoos not to endorse that plan. Polling and political support and foxnews will be so important here. We need to get ready to fight disinformation.

45. Keep in mind - there are 8 other Senators I said would prob turn if iMitch did. 80% of the Senate could vote in a bipartisan way IF and WHEN Mitch does the right thing.

Keep your eyes open. This will happen. We will win.

46: The POLLING will shift - because we know there’s more bodies buried with Flynn, Stone, And Manafort. We know Nader probably talked. This is the biggest batch of criminals in world history, and this is our last chance to take them down.

47: For all the people claiming this won’t happen, it might not. All I offer is informed speculation, but we keep seeing signs that it might.

48: While I’m here, I’m angry that people think we should just wait and vote them out. The election is too late. Crimes were committed and that is spitting in the face of everyone who has done any work to uncover them.

Trump has 109 days left in office. Read this thread to find out how.

#ImpeachmentNOW

41b: theguardian.com/us-news/2019/j…

19b: cotton is forever a hack msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-…

24b: Id like to present the following in as evidence thehill.com/homenews/senat…

49: Polling IS shifting. The needle IS moving.

63 House Dems are on our side and growing.

We are on track.