, 14 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
The forthcoming @BorisJohnson @jeremycorbyn #BrexitDeal - a thread.
The UK has 3 options - #NoDealBrexit, #WithdrawalAgreement or #Remain. Most Tory Party members back BJ for leader, most Lab members back JC. In both cases most members would back their Brexit decisions. 1/
Corbyn's two main Brexit advisers are #SeumasMilne & #AndrewMurray (who also still works for Len McCluskey in Unite). In Oct18 Murray argued that Lab should back May's deal to avoid NoDeal. 2/
@Channel4News 11Nov18. Tory MP Jo Johnson had called for a #PeoplesVote. When asked if he would back another vote Corbyn replied, "No, not really. The ref took place. The issue now has to be how to bring ppl together" 3/
After the WA had been defeated in HoC 3 times, May wanted to do a deal with Lab to get it passed. On 3 Apr Lab Spox (prob Milne) briefed a deal was near which would rule out 2nd Ref. Problem was that on 27 Mar, May had already said she would resign after WA was passed. 4/
The issue for Lab now was that with May gone, any deal would be reliant on it being "Boris-proof". Nothing can bind a future PM or HoC after all. The talks fell apart as May couldn't guarantee anything on workers' rights , environment etc. 5/
After all, what Lab and the Tories had been negotiating was the (non-binding) Political Declaration *not* the Withdrawal Agreement as Diane Abbott admitted in this interview with Justin Webb on 6 Apr. 6/
Since the EU elections, there have been calls from the pro-Corbyn, anti-Brexit Left for Corbyn to replace his Brexit advisers as in this 27 May Paul Mason article. Imo, Corbyn won't get rid of them. Why? Because he agrees with them. 7/
Boris Johnson is likely to be our new PM before the end of July. Despite all the noise, he won't want the chaos of #NoDealBrexit. His main (indeed *only*) priority has been becoming PM. If he had thought backing Remain would have done that, he'd have backed Remain. 8/
Corbyn's Brexit advisers want to do a Brexit deal with the Tories. Neither Corbyn nor them want a #PeoplesVote with a #Remain option. The proCorbyn, antiBrexit Left will still continue to back JC ("against the Blairites") though- see Mason article. 9/
To sum up, we're left with 3 options - No Deal, WA or Remain. The *only* changes Boris Johnson can negotiate with the EU will be with the Political Declaration. He'll probably get something just to get the WA passed. It'll be a "great victory" of course. 10/
Johnson will be happy to get a deal done with Corbyn on the (*non-binding*) PD too. As with Nixon going to China or Trump going to NKorea, BJ's base will be happy to go along with it. Corbyn's base will go along with it too albeit with a few moans and groans. 11/
I'm a Remainer but the Remain forces are very split. Eg, in Lab we have antiCorbynRemain & proCorbynRemain. The latter will *not* back any moves against JC. Outside Lab, the parties are unlikely to work together in any GE. 12/
The main priority for all is stopping #NoDealBrexit as it would be a chaotic mess. It might well be that a #JohnsonCorbynBrexitDeal is the best we can hope for before 31 Oct. 12/ Ends
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