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THREAD: UK politics often mirrors US politics in ideological trends: UK Labour's win after WW2 followed the USA FDR/LBJ majority; the rise of UK's Thatcher foreshadowed the rise of Reagan; the rise of Clinton forecast the rise of UK's Blair; & success of Brexit forecast Trump. 1/
What does UK forecast for USA? First, a Trump-less GOP is a dead GOP, just as the Tories discover with the implosion of support fleeing for the Trump-ish Brexit Party. Second, a Trump-led GOP is the most powerful political force afoot, as a Brexit-inspiried Tory party was. 2/
Third, Corbyn's rise in Labour paralleled the rise of Bernie-ism in the Democratic party here, just as the death of Blairism foreshadowed the demise of Clintonism in the US. The #2020 Dem nominee contestants almost all steal from Bernie's #2016 platform, not Hillary's. 3/
Labour, like Pelosi's Dems, cannot unite its four conflicting constituencies: upscale professional class, millennial leftists, old working class & minority/migrant constituencies. Hence, it bleeds working class to Brexit, upscale to Lib Dems, & millennial/minorities to Greens. 4/
Final clue: whichever party best incorporates its populist base has the best chance of sustained success. Trump achieved that masterfully in US, w/ Ryan-ite Republicanism failing the party in the House in 2018. W/o Trump-ish solutions, expect more UK-style splintering & chaos. 5/
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