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E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
@Tweetermeyer
Jun 17, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Fascinating chart from a recent Bernstein report showing that auto industry industrial robot density is reaching an equilibrium (with the exception of those wacky Koreans). In case it wasn't already obvious, Elon Musk's "Alien Dreadnought" is pure science fiction
At 1,200 robots per 10,000 workers, you can get a sense of how far we are from anything resembling a 100% automated "lights out" manufacturing system... and the Japanese OEMs are actually de-automating. Robots ain't coming for your job if you make cars for a living!
We're way behind on our Magical Mystery Plant Tour content, but our visits to 7 auto plants around the world support this trend. The jobs that can be automated have been, and top manufacturers like Toyota are more bullish than ever on human labor. thedrive.com/tech/26375/wel…
Industrial automation isn't limited to the big, expensive robots counted in this chart. If you haven't read @hansgreimel's piece on "Karakuri Kaizen" you really should... just a fascinating example of "human-centered automation" or "micro-automation" autonews.com/manufacturing/…

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More from @Tweetermeyer

E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 24, 2023
There's a fascinating thread here, where Elon seems to go nuts for anything Google is doing, and funds "competition" for their work based on the assumption that they are much farther along than they are.
semafor.com/article/03/24/…
This is literally how Tesla ended up going into driving automation tech! Most people still don't know that Google developed a system called "AutoPilot"but didn't bring it to market based on the exact safety concerns plaguing Tesla's version
thedrive.com/tech/29877/dr-…
The driving automation play and the AI play are different in some respects, but in both cases Musk was trying to "frontrun" competition with what he (mistakenly) thought were imminent Google monopolies. He's kind of an emerging tech squatter?
Read 8 tweets
E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 23, 2023
This is a really good way to prove that you're not just a jerk, but someone who doesn't engage with technology in a thoughtful way as well.
Here's the thing about automation: "understanding the technology" is barely half the battle. If you don't understand the work you're trying to automate, you'll never succeed. The people who proclaim rampant job loss from automation grok the tech, but are clueless about the jobs.
Driving automation technology is rampant with this flavor of cluelessness. People see a video and say "oh look, it's driving" without having the first clue about what driving in an economically valuable way entails (long-tail reliability, insurance, customer service, etc)
Read 6 tweets
E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 22, 2023
Now that the "self-driving car" bubble has burst, why not spend the technology dividend on solving this actual, real-world problem?
Right now the auto industry is planning to spend the technology dividend on Level 2 systems, which provide an enticing simulacrum of self-driving without delivering any actual proven safety benefits. That's where the money is, so never mind about safety I guess!
It doesn't have to be that way. Instead we could apply the performance improvements and cost reductions in driving automation tech to the systems we know deliver improved safety outcomes... which just happen to be the systems that don't pretend to be "self-driving."
Read 5 tweets
E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 21, 2023
I asked Midjourney to show me a Persian miniature of a robotaxi and it gave the thing a lidar dome that looks like a mosque 🥹 Image
I've been having fun trying to understand how Midjourney imagines the term "robotaxi" in different contexts, so I'll continue to post the results in this thread.

Here we have one of my favorite examples of an ancient Egyptian robotaxi, complete with a massive infotainment system Image
The Oregon Trail sure ain't what it used to be, now that we got them self-driving Conestoga wagons, I'll tell you what. Image
Read 15 tweets
E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 15, 2023
It says a lot about the Tesla fandom that the response to revelations about Tesla's malfeasance is always "oh well every other automaker does this, you just never hear about it, and though I don't actually cite any sources just trust that I have looked into this."
Tesla has tried to do this itself, for example in its only public statement on my reporting about its record of environmental violations at Fremont.

I dug into their claims, and the comparison Tesla drew actually shows how much worse their record is
thedrive.com/tech/28432/tes…
Fremont has some 47 Clean Air Act violations since it last settled some 30 violations with @AirDistrict in mid-2021. I challenge Tesla's defenders to name a single auto final assembly factory with a record that comes close to that. Just one! echo.epa.gov/detailed-facil…
Read 5 tweets
E.W. Niedermeyer Profile picture
Mar 13, 2023
The whole "this wasn't VCs, this was just SVB" narrative elides a major point of this whole episode: insularity concentrates risk in lots of ways. You think it was a coincidence that a bank so embedded in this specific ecosystem failed to hedge for higher interest rates?
Like, I guess it's probably a good thing that Silicon Valley didn't do all of it's Finding Out all at once (as much as some players might deserve it)... but let's not pretend we can or should prevent that Finding Out from happening in a more orderly fashion.
I have friends and acquaintances in Silicon Valley who are amazing people doing amazing work, and I wish them nothing but good things. But there were plenty of good people in Detroit, and that culture still had to undergo a major reckoning. And guess what? That pain was worth it.
Read 4 tweets

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