Alex Stojanovic Profile picture
Jun 20, 2019 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1. The North/South mapping exercise on the island of Ireland is a sobering reminder of just how much of N/S cooperation relies on at least in part EU law. Anything to do with agriculture, the environment, transport (in part), cross border medicine supply, tourism, research... ImageImageImage
2. Energy (Single electricity market, natural gas), broadcasting, chemicals, cross border police cooperation. How all of this will function has to be sorted out without materially harming the cross-border cooperation that does occur. We are familiar with the options by now. ImageImage
3. One way to do this is the NI-specific backstop more or less along the lines the EU propose. This tries to maintain EU law where cooperation relies on it. That doesn't mean it doesn't have constitutional implications, but it is one way of solving the problem.
4. Another is a soft Brexit in which the whole UK maintains an ongoing part of the acquis. That would then mean that cooperation on the island could remain exactly as now at the price of GB's freedom to diverge.
5. What is obvious from the exercise is that it would make little sense for NI to start diverging on anything to do with environment and agriculture. This would materially affect the work of the Foyle, Carlingford and Irish Lights Commission on the protection of fisheries etc.
6. On the cross-border medicine if different drugs are authorised or refused authorisation that could be a problem. Perhaps in other areas where the Common Travel Area provides a basis, it might be possible to evaluate how necessary the EU legal base is.
7. What should be ultimately taken away from this, however, is that this is not just a customs problem. It's not just something max fac can wish away. There are lots of dimensions of N/S that are at least facilitated by EU law and we either need to maintain that or identify...
8. Where divergence would not materially harm cooperation and would also not lead to breaches in the single market. Also how important is it and how likely is it there would be an interest for NI in doing so if not GB? I suspect you end up pretty close to the NI backstop ends/

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More from @awstojanovic

Sep 14, 2020
Is state aid the Brexit hill the UK should die on? Today we publish our new @instituteforgov paper on subsidy control. We go through the arguments for what kind of subsidy system the UK should have and we outline why a compromise with the EU makes sense. Long thread (sorry) 1/
First some context. The UK is not a big subsidiser as the chart below shows. But that could change. Rumours about a new light touch regime to enable more subsidies of UK priorities have been reported - we get to the wisdom of this in a moment. 2/
Currently the UK is bound by two multilateral systems of subsidy control: the WTO Anti Subsidy and Countervailing Measures Agreement, and the EU's state aid. State aid is more comprehensive and more rigorously enforced 3/

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/wor…
Read 20 tweets
Jun 19, 2020
The nub of the problem is that the actual amount of divergence doesn't matter that much. In state aid the rules could be exactly the same and different authorities could come to different opinions on an issue because discretion plays such a big role in the system 1/
That's what makes state aid complex. The rules can be clear but the flexibility in how they are interpreted is massive. Then if you imagine a UK and an EU authority having fundamentally different interests and perspectives it becomes even harder... 2/
One of the tests the Commission applies is whether a state aid measure is in the "common European interest" and therefore permissible. The UK's interests are not going to be included in that. Similarly a UK body would have a similar test - how could it include EU's interest? 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 1, 2020
There is a much simpler explanation than all of this ventriloquism:

The UK prizes autonomy and has a minimum demand on this: pretty much everything else is negotiable.

The EU has a minimum demand that a deal should provide common constraints via LPF. 1/
If there is a level of constraint the UK can offer that at the same time provides a flexibility to do things differently the EU can accept there will be a deal.

If not, the things both sides really care about are irreconcilable. Notice that for both it is not about access. 2/
This deal is not about the offensive demands. They are far more mutable for both sides, as seen by EU trailed softening on fish, and UK offering up tariffs (misguided as that is it points to the fact UK would take a basic FTA). 3/
Read 7 tweets
Sep 4, 2019
A stripped back backstop by definition won't cover everything the current one does. Therefore it will be a downgrade to the current solution.

But does the backstop have to cover 100% of the issues? Is there a sliding scale where 90% or 80% is better than no deal? 1/
If the question is: What alternative can we have that does the job of the backstop? The answer is NI-only covering agri, industrial goods, VAT and remaining in the EU's customs territory - i.e. the EU's original proposal.

That might not be the question put to Ireland tho. 2/
Assuming a deal strategy is pursued by current Gov. It needs a solution that allows both Johnson to say the backstop has been removed (with some exceptions that were simply practical measures,) and the EU to say the UK has accepted the backstop (with some minor adjustments) 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 27, 2019
At this point the main UK-EU dynamic is who can pin the blame on the other for no deal. Proposals are just part of that game.

Both sides have ramped up the political cost of anything less than 100% of what they want, to the point that no deal is preferable to a concession. 1/
On the EU side they have been clear that the backstop has to remain as is. It would be a massive loss of faith and extremely politically damaging to concede that now. On the UK side anything other than removal of the backstop, if not whole passages of the WA = no deal 2/
The space for compromise is essentially what it has always been: one side gets what they want in practice but concedes in theory, the other says they got what they wanted but concedes in practice.

The previous negotiations have essentially been the UK conceding in practice. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 11, 2019
1. I think that this is probably a miscalculation. No deal means large scale deliberalisation very quickly. Once that horse has bolted I'm not sure it comes back. Then you have the time it will take for the EU member states to approve a new mandate under a different legal base.
2. Is the WA acceded to under duress really sustainable? Is there any possibility of conducting a negotiation after that? There would be low-level technical cooperation on the border. The UK would probably agree to pay the money. But it would set in motion a radical divergence.
3. The trade that was underpinned by those relationships would be lost in the months following and supply chains would begin restructuring. The value of a deal beyond resolving the choke points of port would then be diminished (assuming temporary unilateral measures stay)
Read 4 tweets

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