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Today there was -ve news in IT sector. Nifty opened gap down and BN opened gap up.
Everyone would have thought about index managment.
I thought as IT is -ve, if Nifty has to hold, BN will move up. But, exactly opposite happend after open...
....IT made DL and recovered, while, BN fell sharply. Nifty was hovering near opening level.
By 9:30 AM, BN broke lows of June 19th and 18th to make new swing lows. Nifty, NF and BNF didn't break lows of June 19th. Nifty had broken June 18th's low on June 19th...
...So the current scenario was both #Banknifty and #Nifty had broken lows of June 18th.
Now along with this there was huge increase in premiums of future. In the opening minutes NF wasn't falling and only spot was falling. Also today was ex-dividend date of #Hdfcbank...
...Due to which BNF premium also increased.
Now that BN was a DL @ 9:30 AM, also hit new swing lows. Strong down move after open.
Now just think for a second. If market wanted to go down, wasn't this the perfect location? Everyone was already surprised by move in IT sector....
...coupled with increase in premiums. Yes it was.
Why would it bounce after hitting swing lows in the opening 15 mins if it wants to go down? I bet you didn't think about this.
By the time people could underestand whats happening, both BN and Nifty....
....gave strong up move. By 9:45 AM both were at the highs of the day.
As expected, what did people do? They shorted into the bounce.
Had people questioned themselves as abv, they would have gone long instead.
After the bounce, 3rd 15 min candle formed a doji...
...Looking at the doji, confidence of shorts increased. But, has they looked at LTF, 1 min and 5 min, they would have observed that the market is actually consolidating.
Those 3 5min candles had HH and HL. In what world is it bearish?...
By the end of first 60 mins, market was already at DH with a strong hourly candle.
If you observe, BN and Nifty gave a strong bounce from support levels after hitting new swing lows. In what world is this bearish?....
....Given the moves in first hour, markets consolidated for next hours.
Shorts are thinking that market is not able to go up after the 1st hour move. Longs are also thinking the same. What happens during these 2 hours is very interesting....
....Market gave the first dip in the 1st hour. Intraday traders obviously shorted and by the end of 1st hour market hit DH, taking the SL.
After hitting DH it again gave a dip. People again shorted and same thing happened. SLs were hit!
But if you observe during these 2 hours.. was making HH and HL. It was building a base.
You can see it on 15 mins and 5 mins chart.
Clean chart. Not once the formation was spoilt.
But, people kept on shorting and market kept on taking their SLs...
...Ab bari longs ki ayi.
In the 4th hour market rallied but by the end of 4th hour it gave a strong down move, which lead to a long upper wick on the hourly candle.
This was caused by fresh sellers who entered looking at the good RR for..
..for short. By this all the weak longs were thrown out by the market.
It is at this time when premiums in both BN and Nifty went to yesterday's level. BNF came into discount from 50+ points premium.
This was a clear sign of short positions...
...Now it was clear. Few SLs are at DH and majority of the SLs were at June 19th's high. All market had to do is break DH and start the short squeez.
And it did just that. New DH was hit and the short covering started....
....Look at the 5th and 6th hourly candles. They are the strongest candles of the day.
Both BN and Nifty hit yesterday's high in the 6th hourly candle and rest is history! 😌
At the end if you see the 60min chart, not 1 60min candle broke low of previous candle...
....This is how Wolf sees the market. All time frames have to be kept in mind
Market kept trapping shorts through out the day.
And these are the major mistakes done by traders today.
Days like these make or break a traders account. Even the best of the traders get trapped...
If you think this is post-mortem analysis and shrug it off then even GOD can't help you.
I have traded these moves countless times live with #WTR and #WTP members. Days like these are my USP! Unique super power
Call me arrogant or call me anything, the truth is never ignore my views.
I have worked very hard to reach this level! Still I sit more than 12hrs analysing charts.
Be wrong small, but, hit big when you are right!
I am one of the bests at what I do. I am Wolf!
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