The wager: NPV
The risk: NFV
"Ready, Aim, Shoot.
How we actually form beliefs:
"Ready, Shoot, Aim."
Then: It was better to be safe than sorry.
Now: If you are safe, it is better to take time and lessen why you'll be sorry.
Disinformation: Lies regardless of Facts.
"Fake News": Facts and Lies, both embellished to spin a particular narrative, which won't be challenged by those whose beliefs are consistent with the story.
Add a step to
"Ready, Shoot, Aim"
After justifying your belief *after* taking a position (Aim), say to yourself "wanna bet?"
This will force you to inventory *why* you believe something and how you reached that conclusion.
- your level of confidence from 1 to 10 (false to accurate)
- the plausible alternatives to your decision (the lower # of alts, the more quality info you have)
- our personal narrative no longer hinges on being right or wrong, we preserve self-worth & are more self-aware
- we see opposing info as a benefit, not a threat. We remain humble & hungry, not rabid and starved
- we are more credible communicators
- this invites collaboration, not challenge.
- More knowledge is shared and more is gained for all involved.
- by institutionalizing the expression of uncertainty, we advance knowledge instead of stagnantly affirming what we believe