#1: Biggest show, #StrangerThings, launched to biggest-ever viewership (40 of 155MM accounts) 4 days after Q2 ended
If released week earlier, odds are US would have been flat. Still bad, but July 17 would look same and narrative VERY diff
Actually not true, they hiked most prices 20%. So actually Netflix got worse, but barely changed. Issue is it didn't get better enough to get new subs
#4: Bad for two reasons, 1, we only just hit Netflix's lower goal (60-90), 2, inertia ended before competition
#7: Q was definitely very light. OITNB (signature show) slipped to Q3, no new hits or even triples
If hits was the core issue, we should see relief
Most see multiples of this per month, let alone after key show ends a season.
Hence issue is subscriber TAM and tineline
But it's only one Q miss and it's v unclear how big the opportunity is or isn't, too (Reed IDs 700mm Pay-TV homes outside China, with Netflix leading TAM growth daily)
Netflix had a Q with no hits or popular returning series. Avg quality seen as dropping overall, but especially in Q due to license losses and no good replacements.
But subs were flat.
A: New/more hits and lose subs (terrifying); new/more hits and subs flat (bad; you're on an accelerating treadmill); new/more hits and subs grow (good, you have execution headroom).