Jitendra Kumar Gupta Profile picture
Jul 21, 2019 31 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Interesting book "HOW TO GET LUCKY" by Max Gunther-- author of Zurich Axioms,
"There are two ways to be an almost sure loser in life. One is to take goofy risks; that is, risks that are out of proportion to the rewards being sought. And the other is to take no risks at all"
Out of the 13 Techniques that the book describes,
Technique-1 is recognising the role of luck. "Ignoring the role of luck is a recipe for bad luck. When you clearly see how luck affects a given situation, then you become strongly aware that the situation is bound to change"
Technique-1A The author says skills are valuable, but never delude into thinking that it is skill alone. “I’m where I am partly because of good luck”
Luck can change for good or bad. With this reminder constantly we prepare for the day when luck might change in unknowable ways.
Technique-1B cont....Refuse to relax. We are often told in school that we are the shapers of our own lives and the authors of our own outcomes. But you should not believe it. It is nonsense. The first step in controlling your luck is to recognize that it exists.
Technique: 2 "Finding the Fast Flow" Whatever you aspire to be, the rule is the same. Go where events flow fastest. It means, simply, make contact with people. Get involved. Don’t be a sideliner, watching events flow past. Plunge into the events yourself.
Technique: 2A All that is necessary is that you meet a lot of people and let them know just who you are. Group activities are ideal irrespective of interests. Also, go to parties. Give parties. Attend rallies. March in marches. If you exercise for fitness, don’t exercise alone.
Technique: 3 Risk Spooning: There are two ways to be an almost sure loser in life. One is to take goofy risks; that is, risks that are out of proportion to the rewards being sought. And the other is to take no risks at all.
Technique: 3A: Lucky people characteristically avoid both extremes. They cultivate the technique of taking risks in carefully measured spoonfuls. The author says to be lucky it is essential to take risks.
Technique: 4 "Run Cutting": Always assume a given run will be short. You will virtually always be right. The law of averages is heavily on your side. It is a rational approach to a world of unpredictable, uncontrollable events. We push our luck, ride our runs too long – and sink.
Technique: 4A: In probability law, you would have to spin a roulette wheel about 268 mln times in order to have an even chance of seeing a run of twenty-eight reds. If you insisted on waiting for that run of twenty-eight, you would have to watch a lot of money go down the drain.
Technique: 4B: What happens is that, having signed on for a long run, you work yourself into a psychological state in which nothing else will do. You trap yourself into waiting for the long run, which, nine times out of ten, isn’t going to happen. Do not be greedy, cut it short
Technique 5: Luck Selection: When bad luck strike what do you do? The lucky reaction is to wait a short time and see if the problems can be fixed or will go away, and then, if the answer is no, bail out.
Technique 5A No matter how carefully you lay your plans, you cannot know how those plans will be affected by the unforeseeable and uncontrollable events that we call luck. If the luck is good, then you stay with the venture and enjoy it. But what if the luck is bad?
Technique 5B What if the bottom drops out of the stock market? Or the seemingly limitless promise of that new job vanishes in a corporate upheaval? Or your love affair sours when a rival suddenly appears?
Technique 5C: The lucky reaction is to wait a short time and see if the problems can be fixed or will go away, and then, if the answer is no, bail out. Cut losses short. This is what lucky people habitually do. To put it another way, they have the ability to select their own luck
Technique 6: The Zigzag Path

It turns out that lucky men and women, on the whole are not straight-line strugglers. They not only permit themselves to be distracted, they invite distraction. Their lives are not straight lines but zigzags.
Technique 6:B The Zigzag Path=> Goal orientation, as they call it in Psychology 101, is undoubtedly a good thing in moderate doses. Lucky do not overdo it. Long-range plans aren’t actually harmful, but it is important not to take them seriously.
Technique 6:c The Zigzag Path=> A plan can be used as a kind of guide into the future but should never be allowed to harden into a law. If something better comes along, you should be ready to abandon your old plan immediately and without regret.
Technique 6:D The Zigzag Path=> This is what the lucky are able to do. Typically, they do it without thinking about it much. As a breed, they instinctively avoid getting trapped in their own long-range plans.
Technique 7 Constructive Supernaturalism: Nearly all lucky people, it turns out, associate themselves in some way with some kind of religious/supernatural idea. What is the connection?
Technique 7A Constructive Supernaturalism: The connection in my opinion is that a supernatural belief, even a trivial and humorous one, helps people get lucky by helping them make otherwise impossible choices. Life is full of situations in which you must choose among alternatives
Technique 8 lucky individual applies a worst-case analysis. “I know this situation can go wrong. I got to ask how it can go wrong. What is the worst possible outcome? Or if there are, what are they? If the worst does happen, what will I do to save myself?”
Technique 8 lucky individual applies a worst-case analysis. “I know this situation can go wrong. Now I’ve got to ask how it can go wrong. What is the worst possible outcome? What are they? How can it go wrongest? And if the worst does happen, what will I do to save myself?”
Technique 9:luckiest people guard against unnecessary talk. They are particularly careful when talking of subjects that have great personal importance to them. They reveal no more of their thinking. Typically, others think of them as somewhat mysterious.
Technique 10: A noteworthy trait of the lucky is that they know what they can’t learn anything from. you must be very careful in determining what lessons may be drawn from them. The habit of deriving false lessons from life’s random happenings is a trait of the unlucky.
Technique 11: Accepting an Unfair Universe: The universe isn’t fair and never has been in all the time men and women have been grappling with it. By accepting that truth instead of arguing with it, you take one more step on the road to becoming consistently lucky.
Technique 12: The Juggling Act: Lucky people always seem to have many ventures going on at the same time. Even at the height of success in a major venture such as a career, the lucky man or woman will usually have secondary ventures going or in preparation or under study
Yes, the lucky have their ups and downs like anybody else. The difference is that, with the lucky, down periods never last long. The luckiest always find some way of juggling through. If you seek good luck, it is far better to be too busy than not busy enough.
Technique 13: Destiny Pairing: Your heart warms when you see these people. Your acquaintanceship network. They may bring you isolated strokes of life-changing luck from time to time, but only a person who alters your luck over a long term may be called a destiny partner.
Technique 13A: How do you meet your destiny partner? It usually happens by blind luck. Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. Destiny pairs meet in part because one goes looking for the other. Active looking can make a lucky hit more likely. This could happen to you..
Tech. 13B If your potential partner walks into your life – a person with whom you feel a quick, strong and positive reaction – don’t let that person simply walk back out. At least keep the newborn relationship alive while you assess it and see where it might go.

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More from @Jitendra1929

Aug 18, 2018
Chetan Parikh: India's True Warren Buffett (completely my view)
Chetan Parikh 2009 interview
bit.ly/2ORhhKI

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Buffett may well include a chapter on importance of buying companies (even at fair prices) with pricing power, having low capital requirement for growth and ability to maintain and increase their competitive advantage.
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