Stage is set for special counsel Robert Mueller’s first (and likely only) public testimony about his report.
Three-ish hours on obstruction, followed by a session on Russian election meddling.
Here’s what to expect...
*What Democrats will do*
Try to winkle our new information about Trump’s alleged obstruction.
Would Mueller have recommended charge if Trump wasn’t president? (And so not protected by ‘no indictment’ guidance)
Was there collusion? (Not a crime but a description of activity)
*What Republicans will do*
Question whether Mueller was a biased actor by picking holes
Lots of focus expected on Steele dossier (Was it based on dodgy Russian info? Did you verify contents?)
Trump+allies argue that investigators overstepped in launching Russia probe.
Will Mueller reveal big new info?
Almost certainly not. He didn’t want to testify, insisting he won’t go beyond his written report.
But the political impact comes from him speaking his conclusions on TV.
(As one wag noted, people tend not to read the book but watch the film.)
Appearance deemed so significant that both sets of congressmen have been gameplaying how today will go. Dems had someone pretending to be Mueller to practice questioning.
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🚨BREAKING: Rishi Sunak preparing a small reshuffle to be announced as early as tomorrow. To replace Nadhim Zahawi but also go wider.
Plans for a wider reshuffle may explain why it’s been more than a week + still no Zahawi replacement
Have been calls for Dominic Raab to be suspended while the bullying investigation carries on. (He’s always denied wrongdoing)
Source close to Raab says they’ve heard nothing
All tight-lipped at the centre tonight. But no denials of a reshuffle tomorrow from multiple No10 folk. Telegraph understands it’ll be a small one though.
THREAD
Rishi Sunak’s 5 promises are largely in line with current expectations. The OBR forecasts inflation to drop sharply this year. Growth is expected in 2024. Passing a law on small boats with a majority of around 80 is more than doable. The debt falling pledge… 1/5
…appears only to be over the medium term, so just needs forecasts to say it’s happening in year 5 to achieve. And ‘waiting lists falling’ is open to definition - there are many different ways to cut the numbers (eg Sunak said Tories have already eliminated 2yr waits). BUT…2/
…these pledges do also involve a fair degree of political risk. The last 12months a reminder of just how hard accurately predicting inflation can be. Changes in Ukraine conflict or Putin tightening gas exports could happen. Not impossible halving inflation in 2023 is missed…3/
1/ A new 'small boats command'
- Policing of Channel 'too fragmented'
- NCA folk, intel, etc coming together
- Use of drones, surveillance
- 700 new staff
- Doubling of relevant NCA funding
2/ Extra help for immigration officers
- Allowing them to focus on enforcement
- Increase raids on 'illegal working' by 50%
- Tackle bank account use by those here illegally
- Restart data sharing re bank accounts
3/ New approach on asylum seeker housing
- 'Appalling' £5.5m a day spent on hotels
- 'Range of alternative sites' looked at
- Unused holiday parks/student halls/military
- Already offers to house 10k people
- Places should be half cost of hotels
🧵Did Boris Johnson really get to 100 Tory MPs? The Rishi Sunak number crunchers believe not. Quick thread on why… 1/ telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/…
They started by taking the most generous possible interpretation of everyone’s support. Such as the Guido Fawkes list, which merged public endorsements with private backers. 2/
That left somewhere around 100ish Tory MPs whose positions were unknown. They then worked down the list of names, trying to deduce where those people would/may/could end up… 3/