Ben Riley-Smith Profile picture
Jul 24, 2019 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Stage is set for special counsel Robert Mueller’s first (and likely only) public testimony about his report.

Three-ish hours on obstruction, followed by a session on Russian election meddling.

Here’s what to expect...
*What Democrats will do*

Try to winkle our new information about Trump’s alleged obstruction.

Would Mueller have recommended charge if Trump wasn’t president? (And so not protected by ‘no indictment’ guidance)

Was there collusion? (Not a crime but a description of activity)
*What Republicans will do*

Question whether Mueller was a biased actor by picking holes

Lots of focus expected on Steele dossier (Was it based on dodgy Russian info? Did you verify contents?)

Trump+allies argue that investigators overstepped in launching Russia probe.
Will Mueller reveal big new info?

Almost certainly not. He didn’t want to testify, insisting he won’t go beyond his written report.

But the political impact comes from him speaking his conclusions on TV.

(As one wag noted, people tend not to read the book but watch the film.)
Appearance deemed so significant that both sets of congressmen have been gameplaying how today will go. Dems had someone pretending to be Mueller to practice questioning.

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More from @benrileysmith

Jun 4
How much blame should No10 take for Nigel Farage’s return and the impact it could have on the race?

I understand Labour high command sees a strategic blunder from the PM as central to all this. And it is explained with the story of a tiger… 🐯🧵
“The Tories had a big tiger outside of their house ,” a Labour insider told me recently.

Reform was the tiger - a political force that was threatening to eat into its vote share. That much was clear after recent by-elections.

And so, the argument goes, “Sunak had a choice”…
Choice one: “He could have gone outside and shot the tiger.”

That would have amounted to going public issuing fierce warnings about Reform - Farage doesn’t have a place in politics, their rhetoric is dangerous, etc. A strong rejection of their pitch.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 6, 2023
🚨BREAKING: Rishi Sunak preparing a small reshuffle to be announced as early as tomorrow. To replace Nadhim Zahawi but also go wider.
Plans for a wider reshuffle may explain why it’s been more than a week + still no Zahawi replacement

Have been calls for Dominic Raab to be suspended while the bullying investigation carries on. (He’s always denied wrongdoing)

Source close to Raab says they’ve heard nothing
All tight-lipped at the centre tonight. But no denials of a reshuffle tomorrow from multiple No10 folk. Telegraph understands it’ll be a small one though.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6, 2023
EXC: A major reduction in the energy bills support package for businesses is due next week

Current package is £18bn for six months

New package to be c. £5bn for a year, so £2.5bn per six months

That’s a big drop. Plus prices will no longer be capped.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/…
For weeks we’ve been waiting to hear what the Government’s plan is for helping companies with energy costs beyond March.

It is expected to be announced early next week. Telegraph can reveal details of the plan that is awaiting final sign-off.
The current plan, a massive intervention from Liz Truss announced when she took office, is called the Energy Bill Relief Scheme.

It lasted from start of last October to the end of March and protected all UK businesses from surging energy bills.

But the new plan is different…
Read 9 tweets
Jan 4, 2023
THREAD
Rishi Sunak’s 5 promises are largely in line with current expectations. The OBR forecasts inflation to drop sharply this year. Growth is expected in 2024. Passing a law on small boats with a majority of around 80 is more than doable. The debt falling pledge… 1/5
…appears only to be over the medium term, so just needs forecasts to say it’s happening in year 5 to achieve. And ‘waiting lists falling’ is open to definition - there are many different ways to cut the numbers (eg Sunak said Tories have already eliminated 2yr waits). BUT…2/
…these pledges do also involve a fair degree of political risk. The last 12months a reminder of just how hard accurately predicting inflation can be. Changes in Ukraine conflict or Putin tightening gas exports could happen. Not impossible halving inflation in 2023 is missed…3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
One big political declaration from Rishi Sunak today - clear the asylum case backlogs by end of 2023

Is rare in politics, an explicit target that can be categorically checked. (Avoided for NHS backlogs)

Case backlogs soaring. 126k in June. Homework marked before 2024 election. Image
Sunak wording - “we expect to abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions by the end of next year”.

Come end of next year much may depend on how “initial” is defined.
Painful history for the Tories when it comes to migrant number promises.

Cameron’s aim to get the yearly net migration below 100,000 never hit.

Latest figures put it at 504,000, 12 years after Tories entered No10.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
Sunak's five-point small boats plan

1/ A new 'small boats command'
- Policing of Channel 'too fragmented'
- NCA folk, intel, etc coming together
- Use of drones, surveillance
- 700 new staff
- Doubling of relevant NCA funding
2/ Extra help for immigration officers
- Allowing them to focus on enforcement
- Increase raids on 'illegal working' by 50%
- Tackle bank account use by those here illegally
- Restart data sharing re bank accounts
3/ New approach on asylum seeker housing
- 'Appalling' £5.5m a day spent on hotels
- 'Range of alternative sites' looked at
- Unused holiday parks/student halls/military
- Already offers to house 10k people
- Places should be half cost of hotels
Read 5 tweets

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