, 6 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Everyone should learn about Multi-level Regression & Poststratification (sometimes called Mr. P or MRP). This is the model perhaps everyone from the left to the media & pollsters abroad are using to represent "Public Opinion". #JusticeDemocrat's entire model is predicated on it.
It isn't a sexy thing to learn about I admit, but I have been up all night researching it and it is insanely delicate. It was used in the UK to try and manage the whole #Brexit thing and you see how that turned out...shall we say not in favor of those implementing MRP polling...
What is MRP? In brief, "MRP...begins by using multilevel regression to model individual survey responses as a function of demographic and geographic predictors,
partially pooling respondents across states to an extent determined by the data. (con't next)
The final step is poststratification, in which the estimates for each demographic-geographic respondent type are weighted (poststratified) by the percentages of each type in the actual state populations." --citation: princeton.edu/~jkastell/MRP_…
It is fairly easy to see, and such has been commonly warned, how this model of polling for data can be disastrously (and often intentionally) skewed to bias/fixed/presupposed data sets.
This model is arguably the antithesis of the function of the Electoral College, which may be the point all along...@POTUS @realDonaldTrump @TPUSA @charliekirk11 @scrowder #mugclub #maga #WWG1WGA #KAGA2020 #MAGA2020 @RepMattGaetz @BillCassidy @Jim_Jordan
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