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Robert Saunders Profile picture
@redhistorian
Jul 29, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A reminder that the so-called "Boris Bounce" is more of a bobble by comparison with previous new prime ministers. And both big parties are operating well below their 2017 level.
The two key features of the Wales @yougov poll are (1) the level of fragmentation, with the combined Con/Lab vote below 50%; & (2) the astonishing collapse of the Labour vote in its historic heartlands. The Big Two are both listing badly - but at present, Labour is sinking faster
@YouGov It's also worth noting how much Brexit commentary, with its legitimate emphasis on Englishness, ignores the fact that Wales also voted to Leave, and the extent to which Brexit continues to rewire Welsh, as well as English, politics.

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More from @redhistorian

Robert Saunders Profile picture
Aug 19, 2023
The most powerful idea in British politics is "the economy".

Parties promise to "grow", "unleash" or "manage" the economy.

It tops lists of voter concerns.

But what if we had no concept of "the economy"?

Until the C20th, we didn't. And its rise has had major consequences...🧵 Image
1. If you had told Mr Gladstone that "the economy has grown this year", he would not have understood what you meant.

Gladstone was the most financially literate statesman of the C19th.

But the idea of something called "the economy", which could "grow" or "shrink", did not exist Image
2. Even in the C20th, as economic questions roared up the agenda, talk of "THE economy" entered political usage quite slowly.

It first appeared in a major manifesto in 1950 & didn't get its own section until 1955.

That's also when terms like "economic growth" appeared in Parlt. Image
Read 16 tweets
Robert Saunders Profile picture
Jun 13, 2023
There's a hugely important vote in the Lords today, where @GreenJennyJones will attempt to kill a Statutory Instrument changing the law of protest.

The Lords almost never block SIs, so this raises big constitutional qs.

Here's why Labour *should* back the "fatal motion" 🧵...
1. SIs are a form of "secondary legislation": law made directly by ministers, rather than by passing a bill through Parliament.

They are meant to fill in the details of "primary", or parliamentary, legislation.

But this one is being used to *overturn* a decision by Parliament.
2. When the government proposed these changes in the 2023 Public Order Bill, the House of Lords voted them down.

Ministers are now trying to overturn that defeat by issuing a Statutory Instrument.

That's a very new use of these powers, with serious implications for Parliament. Image
Read 10 tweets
Robert Saunders Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
I agree with Anthony Seldon about the damage Boris Johnson has done and his unfitness for public office.

But there's a question he doesn't address here, which needs more attention.

It troubled me about his book, too. So let me try to explain... 🧵
thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-…
1. If Johnson was so manifestly unsuited to office - if his "deep character flaws" were formed so early - how did he rise to power?

What does that say about our democracy, or the qualities we reward in potential leaders?

And what was the role of the commentariat? Image
2. Unlike many of Johnson's chroniclers, Seldon was not always a critic.

In many respects, that strengthens his case. He didn't set out to write a hatchet job. He followed where the evidence led.

But his earlier writing tells us something important about Johnson's rise to power
Read 16 tweets
Robert Saunders Profile picture
Jun 9, 2023
This isn't a resignation statement; it's a temper tantrum.

And its central claim is untrue.

Johnson says he was "forced out anti-democratically" by a "kangaroo court".

So let's remind ourselves of the process from which he has chosen to run away... 🧵
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
1. Johnson was accused of a serious parliamentary offence: misleading the House.

That triggered a 3-step process.

Step one: an investigation by the Privileges Committee, which has a majority of Tory MPs.

Its chair recused himself, & the taxpayer funded Johnson's legal advice.
2. The committee has no power to remove an MP from the House.

It can only recommend a penalty to Parliament: in this case, that Johnson be suspended for more than 10 days.

That brings us to step two: a vote in the House of Commons, which has a Tory majority of nearly 80 seats.
Read 9 tweets
Robert Saunders Profile picture
Jun 7, 2023
I'm a great fan of @lewis_goodall, who argues here for televising the courts.

But respectfully, I don't think the arguments for televising Parliament and televising court cases are analogous.

A few thoughts... 🧵
@lewis_goodall 1. The case for televising Parliament is that voters should know what their elected representatives are saying and doing in their name, so that we can hold them to account at the ballot box.

All those involved are public officials, who are directly responsible to those outside.
2. By contrast, court cases involve private citizens - most of whom have been accused of no crime, but who may be recounting situations of extreme distress, trauma or personal embarrassment.

Those involved are accountable for their conduct, not to public opinion, but to the law.
Read 6 tweets
Robert Saunders Profile picture
Mar 5, 2023
"The next war...will leave civilization a smoking ruin and a putrefying charnel house" (Ramsay MacDonald, 19292).

A great find, illustrating a point that's often overlooked in the memory of "appeasement": that "the next war" was widely expected to end European civilization. 1/5
2. For a Conservative example, here's Stanley Baldwin addressing the House of Commons in November 1932:

"When the next war comes, and European civilisation is wiped out, as it will be..."
hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1932/n…
3. Then there are films like "Things to Come" (Alexander Korda/H.G. Wells, 1936), with its post-apocalyptic landscapes.

Or magazine covers of poisoned cities, with abandoned cars and children dead on the streets.
Read 5 tweets

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