Heading to Detriot for the second round of Democrat 2020 debates tonight + tomorrow. Time running out for little-known candidates to get liftoff. Incentive the same as last month - create a ‘moment’ that gets replayed. Which probably means attacking Biden.
Bernie Sanders among those looking to change the narrative. After being placed second in polls for years he is sinking, with Elizabeth Warren in touching distance of overtaking in key states. Despite total voter name recognition only 1/5 of Dems say they’ll go for him.
Here’s the state of play from earlier in the month in the first two states to vote. (More key than nationwide polls given how race plays out in stages). The whopping lead Biden + Sanders had over others has reduced.
Both polling and fundraising suggest a front 5 is emerging - Biden, Bernie, Warren, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Other high profile names (like senators Cory Booker + Kirsten Gillibrand, or Beto) struggling to break through by those metrics.
Debate night 2 tomorrow expected to have most fireworks. Biden is wedged b/w Harris (repeat of last month’s clash) and Booker (gearing up to challenge his criminal justice record). telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/3…
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How much blame should No10 take for Nigel Farage’s return and the impact it could have on the race?
I understand Labour high command sees a strategic blunder from the PM as central to all this. And it is explained with the story of a tiger… 🐯🧵
“The Tories had a big tiger outside of their house ,” a Labour insider told me recently.
Reform was the tiger - a political force that was threatening to eat into its vote share. That much was clear after recent by-elections.
And so, the argument goes, “Sunak had a choice”…
Choice one: “He could have gone outside and shot the tiger.”
That would have amounted to going public issuing fierce warnings about Reform - Farage doesn’t have a place in politics, their rhetoric is dangerous, etc. A strong rejection of their pitch.
🚨BREAKING: Rishi Sunak preparing a small reshuffle to be announced as early as tomorrow. To replace Nadhim Zahawi but also go wider.
Plans for a wider reshuffle may explain why it’s been more than a week + still no Zahawi replacement
Have been calls for Dominic Raab to be suspended while the bullying investigation carries on. (He’s always denied wrongdoing)
Source close to Raab says they’ve heard nothing
All tight-lipped at the centre tonight. But no denials of a reshuffle tomorrow from multiple No10 folk. Telegraph understands it’ll be a small one though.
THREAD
Rishi Sunak’s 5 promises are largely in line with current expectations. The OBR forecasts inflation to drop sharply this year. Growth is expected in 2024. Passing a law on small boats with a majority of around 80 is more than doable. The debt falling pledge… 1/5
…appears only to be over the medium term, so just needs forecasts to say it’s happening in year 5 to achieve. And ‘waiting lists falling’ is open to definition - there are many different ways to cut the numbers (eg Sunak said Tories have already eliminated 2yr waits). BUT…2/
…these pledges do also involve a fair degree of political risk. The last 12months a reminder of just how hard accurately predicting inflation can be. Changes in Ukraine conflict or Putin tightening gas exports could happen. Not impossible halving inflation in 2023 is missed…3/
1/ A new 'small boats command'
- Policing of Channel 'too fragmented'
- NCA folk, intel, etc coming together
- Use of drones, surveillance
- 700 new staff
- Doubling of relevant NCA funding
2/ Extra help for immigration officers
- Allowing them to focus on enforcement
- Increase raids on 'illegal working' by 50%
- Tackle bank account use by those here illegally
- Restart data sharing re bank accounts
3/ New approach on asylum seeker housing
- 'Appalling' £5.5m a day spent on hotels
- 'Range of alternative sites' looked at
- Unused holiday parks/student halls/military
- Already offers to house 10k people
- Places should be half cost of hotels