, 45 tweets, 28 min read Read on Twitter
Its clear that #Pakistan plans a massive insurgency campaign on steroids against #India that would be backed by the military. India's response should be to retaliate with even greater force so that Pak has to pay an unbearable price for each of its actions.
Such situation would be close to full out war in the Kashmir region and can easily escalate into a full war.
#Pakistan is actually playing into #India's game. Pak's insurgency & supportive military actions will show Pak as the aggressor and India's retake of Pak occupied Kashmir in retaliation for such actions will be totally accepted. India already gamed the whole scenario.
Thread: #Pakistan is behaving exactly as #India expected after the abrogation of article 370. They either do it or they lose face. India is doing the moves, Pak is only reacting and doesn't have any good choices. It's a lose - lose situation for Pak. tribune.com.pk/story/2029195/…
Thread: If things go as expected, with heavy warfare in Kashmir, we could expect that #India will cut off the CPEC corridor road from #China into Pak, which runs through Kashmir and at one point, it's only 80 Km from the LOC. Look at the map 👇👇👇
Thread: In such full scale warfare scenario, the end game could easily be a full or significant Indian takeover of #Pakistan occupied Kashmir and a direct land route from #India to #Afghanistan, something that India needs to counter the Pak-Taliban efforts in Afghanistan.
Thread: And to complicate #Pakistan plans for full insurgency warfare against #India, now this👇 I smell coordinated #US-#India moves - US asked Pak to show tangible & satisfactory actions against banned organisations to support its case on the FATF dawn.com/news/1498540
Thread: Not even need to say that in such case of #India taking over just the eastern part of POK & connecting with #Afghanistan, then #US no longer needs #Pakistan to access Afghanistan & Pakistan loses all the cards they've been playing with #USA. That alone is very big.
Thread: People need to understand that #India is playing a big game here. Article 370 is only one part. The #US withdraw from #Afghanistan will bring tons of Jihadis into Kashmir, so India needs to turn the tables on that big time. What used to work, no longer works.
Thread: What this means is that #India has no choice but to take the initiative & change the Kashmir situation for good. Article 370 was the first step. Once the situation allows, taking over the eastern part of the POK and connecting with Afghanistan is imperative or Afg falls.
Thread: To illustrate my point about #India's need to change the situation in Kashmir & to help #Afghanistan, read my thread on the connections between the Taliban & #China. Allowing the Taliban to take over Afg also means to open the door to China.
Thread: This article is proof of what I've been saying in this thread. #US is finalizing an agreement with the Taliban to exit Afg & with the Taliban in control in Afg, #India had to make a big strategic move of which, article 370 was the first step. thehindu.com/news/internati…
India’s move to end the special status for Jammu and Kashmir indicates that the government is bracing for serious geo-strategic shifts that will unfold in South Asia over the next few months. Though the domestic reasons for ending the special status was presented through.....
...... a detailed analysis of the negative effects that the Article 370 had for Kashmir, the real reason for this hurried makeover lies in the international context. Taliban says that an agreement with US has been finalized and both sides are expected to sign the agreement......
.... before this weekend. Earlier, the Taliban wanted the US to withdraw in 9 months but the US, after multiple shifts, settled for 15 months. That means the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will be the major campaign card for President Donald Trump in the November 2020 election.
The implication of this peace agreement between the Taliban & US will be felt across South Asia and in the West Asian region. This will be a ready acknowledgement that the Bush & Obama’s Afghanistan policy of the last two decades failed and the Taliban will be the winner.
This is the context in which India is firming up its grip in Kashmir. The issue, however, is if Pakistan would like to go down the path of promoting cross-border militancy, as it did in the 1990s when the Lashkar-e-Taiba became a major terror force backed by masters in Islamabad.
Thread: From The Hindu @the_hindu
Just in: #Pakistan to take #Kashmir issue to U.N. Security Council; downgrades diplomatic relations with India, suspends bilateral trade. Via @Ayush59505784
@the_hindu @Ayush59505784 Breaking: #Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi is scheduled to visit #China for some critical discussions with Chinese leadership. We can easily guess what those discussions are about. Via @Ayush59505784
@the_hindu @Ayush59505784 Thread: Statements from the #US House Foreign Affairs Committee @HouseForeign Chairman @RepEliotEngel
& Senator @SenatorMenendez in response to the steps India has taken to revise the status of Jammu & Kashmir: Support for democracy & a warning to #Pakistan 👍
Via @code_blind
@the_hindu @Ayush59505784 @HouseForeign @RepEliotEngel @SenatorMenendez @code_blind Thread: The #Indian Army warns #Pakistan against taking disruptive course on Kashmir, says: "Cost will be prohibitive for you. We are fully prepared and will make sure Pakistan pay a huge price this time". The words of the Northern commander of the Indian army.
@the_hindu @Ayush59505784 @HouseForeign @RepEliotEngel @SenatorMenendez @code_blind Thread: #Pakistan downgrades diplomatic relations with #India - China & Pak react sharply to New Delhi’s revocation of Kashmir’s special status. “Pakistan’s sharp reactions to Indian decision to alter the status of Jammu & Kashmir is along expected lines. asiatimes.com/2019/08/articl…
"The two sides are now in a precarious situation pregnant with huge escalatory potential. This is an opportunity freelance terror organizations and those supported by state actors could make use of in order to bring the two sides to the brink of yet another crisis”
While India expected Pak to react, it hoped for a muted reaction from China. But since India bifurcated the state & declared the eastern part of Ladakh a union territory without a legislature, China saw it as a way to change the status quo of a territory it controls since 1962.
“India continued to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally changing its domestic law,” FM spokeswomen Chunying said. She said the scrapping of Article 370 was “unacceptable & will have no effect & urged India to “strictly abide by relevant agreements.”
India pushed back by pointing out that it was an “internal matter” and it did not comment on “the internal affairs of other countries and expected as much” from them.
Thread: PM Narendra #Modi advised his ministerial colleagues that there is no room for triumphalism and reminded them that it’s now that the heavy lifting begins - That's right, Article 370 was only the first step of a long process indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Thread: PM Mody to Address the Nation on #Kashmir after he signed on the J&K Reorganization order. This should be very interesting. Via @Ayush59505784
@Ayush59505784 Thread: Talking about possible operation to take over POK areas, here are some old 1987 (Op Trident) plans 👇👇👇from @KesariDhwaj
@Ayush59505784 @KesariDhwaj Thread: Those familiar with the higher echelons of GHQ Rawalpindi claim that I. Khan has been installed as PM in order to provide a civilian cover for the military’s plan to ensure control of the bulk of the territory of Afghanistan through the Taliban. sundayguardianlive.com/news/imran-kha…
More points, again, of what I pointed out in this thread, that the new situation of a Taliban controlled Afghanistan & the consequences of that is what prompted India to cancel Article 370 as the first step to deal with this new situation. Nothing will be the same there again.
What is worrisome for India is the fact that control over Afghanistan is only a stepping stone towards the next objective of GHQ Rawalpindi, which is taking over of effective control of most of that part of Jammu & Kashmir which remained in Indian hands after the 1948 ceasefire.
Months after the Taliban get securely installed in Kabul, the temperature within the Kashmir valley will be boosted to a level that GHQ expects will “drive the Indians out by making any form of (coherent) administration of the territory impossible”.
Throughout this process, Imran Khan is expected to lead a “human rights drumbeat against India” that would camouflage the reality of the state coming under Wahhabi fanatics not very different in their outlook and methods from the Taliban.
Another task of Imran Khan will be to convince India to damp down of Indian military responses to Pakistan army provocation (such as shelling and firing) from across the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir.
The robust response by the armed forces led by Chief of Army Staff General Bipin Rawat has dismayed the Pakistan army and affected its ability to increase mayhem in the Valley despite the negative effect on the situation of the Mehbooba Mufti government.
The re-conquest of Afghanistan is Stage I of Pak's plan. Stage II is the de facto takeover of the Kashmir valley, while the final stage is a meltdown of governance in India through a continuous rash of violent incidents resulting in a breakdown of law & order across India.
My take 1: Need to keep in mind that when the Taliban controls #Afghanistan, it'll be not only #Pakistan that will control Afg, but also #China, read my thread here about the special relationship between China & the Taliban 👇👇👇
My take 2: So again, we can see the process behind A-370 and the need to be prepared to fight the hordes of Jihadis, including the Taliban that Pak will unleash on India after they take control of Afg. India will need to be resolute & hit Pak very hard, no matter the consequences
Thread: Video: #IndianArmy: "Lately #Pak has been openly threatening about certain incidents in #Kashmir. Notwithstanding we'll take care of all of them; let anyone come & try & disrupt the peace in valley, we will have him eliminated!" Via @Ayush59505784
@Ayush59505784 Thread: #Pakistan sends 200 PoK locals to terrorist camps for training & infiltration into India - This follows an uproar in Pakistan against India’s move to ‘nullify’ Article 370 and bifurcate J&K into two union territories. economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/p…
These individuals are likely to be infiltrated into India to carry out attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, beef up the terrorist ranks and build up the local support base. The aim of selecting Kashmiris is to portray terrorism in J&K as an internal problem.
Thread: Tension intensifies: #Indian Navy puts all its bases and warships on high alert. Measures taken after Article 370 was revoked by the government and also due to possibility of #Pakistan-backed terrorists carrying out any attack.
Thread: #Pakistani disinformation campaign in progress, lots of fake news in Twitter, etc to try to portray a picture of violence & repression in Kashmir. Another example here 👇
Thread: As I said in this thread, as more information comes out and more people reveal their insights, this conclusion has become quite clear 👇👇👇
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