Relative to the conventional wisdom, I'm short on the importance of Iowa. It's obviously pretty important, maybe very important, but people are treating it as though it's very, very, very important, when there's pretty decent evidence that its impact has lessened recently.
Trump lost Iowa in what was a pretty big upset vs. the polls and he did just fine, obviously.
Clinton came as close as you can to losing Iowa, then got crushed in NH, but recovered in NV/SC and didn't come particularly close to losing the nomination.
Clinton came as close as you can to losing Iowa, then got crushed in NH, but recovered in NV/SC and didn't come particularly close to losing the nomination.
Also there's a lot of overlap between the candidates who are overperforming in Iowa and candidates that white college educated Ds tend to like, which is gonna lead to some overrepresentation of Iowa's importance on platforms like this one where white college edu voices dominate.
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