A simple heuristic that will save inexperienced startup founders from several different types of mistakes: be really cheap. This will save you from hiring too many people, from renting a fancy office, and from growing by buying users instead of making great things.
If you raise from VCs, most will pressure you to spend faster. Partly because, as money people, they think money solves problems. But partly for a more sinister reason: so they can buy more of the company when you burn through this money and need to raise more.
If you're a young founder, VCs have a powerful weapon to convince you to spend faster. They can tell you it's amateurish to be cheap. That you're thinking small. Don't listen to them. Most famous founders were cheap.
It's hard to think of a YC company that was killed by being too cheap. But the number killed by spending too much seems endless.
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I was curious how well I have an essay loaded into my head when I'm working on it, so I tried reproducing the one I'm currently writing from memory. I reproduced it almost perfectly. But the differences suggest I don't have it memorized like lines in a play.
Instead I seem to have it (or at least parts of it) stored as ideas rather than words. Mostly these come out the same, right down to the punctuation, but occasionally they turn into different words.
For example, "You'd think that such an arbitrary constraint would" became "You'd expect such an arbitrary constraint to". In another place "you always end up sacrificing" became "it's always at the expense of". There was one whole paragraph that got turned around like this.
I just realized something most people are going to lose when (as they inevitably will) they start using AIs to write everything for them. They'll lose the knowledge of how writing is constructed.
This is a very common kind of knowledge to be lost as technology progresses. Very few people now know how to weave cloth or turn pots or make baskets. But it's strange to think that writing will now enter this category.
And indeed I worry that something much bigger will be lost when most people stop writing. It's not that big a loss if you don't weave your own cloth. But writing is thinking. So if people stop writing, that's a whole kind of thinking they'll stop doing.
The worst thing a pitch to professional investors can be is confusing. Professional investors are willing to give early stage startups the benefit of the doubt. They're ok with risk. But they can't invest in a startup whose pitch they can't even follow.
It is therefore a big mistake for early stage startups to conceal the risks they face by being vague or evasive. You're hiding something that won't bother experts using something that will. Just admit the risks upfront, and explain why the EV is high nonetheless.
A related mistake founders make is to underestimate how easy it is to confuse investors with an unclear pitch. The founders are familiar with their idea, but investors are seeing it for the first time. So even a small loss of clarity can lose them.
The classic software startup writes code to solve users' problems. If AI makes writing code more of a commodity, understanding users' problems will become the most important component of starting a startup. But it already is.
What YC asks about in interviews is how well you understand users' needs, not your programming ability. I explained this years ago in this essay I wrote about how to ace your Y Combinator interview:
So even if AI becomes very good at writing code, it won't change starting a startup that dramatically. Understanding users' needs will still be the core of starting a startup. And the best way to understand users' needs will still be to have them yourself.
What most people don't realize about Boom is that if they ship an airliner at all, every airline that flies internationally will have to buy it or be converted against their will into a discount airline, flying tourists subsonically.
Ticket prices will be about the same as current business class prices on international flights. How can this be? Because the flights are so much shorter that you don't need lay-flat beds. You can use the seat pitch of domestic first class.
If business class travelers have a choice of a 10 hour subsonic flight from Seattle to Tokyo or a 5 hour supersonic one at the same price, they're all going to take the 5 hour one. Which means all the business class travelers switch to supersonic.
I just finished a new essay about the origins of wokeness. I'm going to get flak from both the far right and the far left about it, so to save all our time I'll respond in advance to what I know they'll say.
People on the far right may, if they haven't been paying attention, claim that I'm just jumping on the bandwagon now that wokeness is already collapsing. In fact I've been writing about this topic since 2004, and I predicted this collapse a year ago:
Others on the right will point out that I voted for Harris. I did. If you're capable of choosing your opinions individually instead of swallowing Republican or Democratic orthodoxy whole, it's possible to see both that wokeness is dangerous and that Trump is more dangerous.