Phil Syrpis Profile picture
Aug 15, 2019 24 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A thread on Corbyn's letter, and the prospects for 'a strictly time-limited temporary Government' to stop a no deal Brexit. 1/
I think it is a welcome move. But... there are problems both with Corbyn's letter, and with the reaction of the other 'remain' parties. 2/
A preliminary point is that a temporary Govt may not be needed. PM Johnson might call a pre-Brexit GE himself, either in October, or in eg November after securing an extension from the EU. I set out the reasons why he might do that here: 3/
But... on the other hand, it might be needed. Johnson's plan might (as he has consistently said) be to leave without a deal (if needs be) in October, potentially bypassing Parliament. 4/
So... on the assumption that Johnson might be heading for no deal, the opposition needs to find ways to stop him. @ProfMarkElliott has expertly set out the legal and political obstacles. 5/
One such way is via the creation of what I and others have been calling a Government of National Unity, but which might be better described as an emergency/temporary/caretaker Government. 6/
There are profound disagreements about this emergency Govt. Most attention has been on who might lead it (and who might command majority cross-party support); but there has also been discussion about the scope of such a Government's mandate. 7/
My view is that the identity of the leader (or new caretaker PM) is only of secondary importance. Far more important is the discussion about what such a PM might or should strive to do. 8/
In my view, Corbyn is right about the important question (the scope of the mandate); but wrong about the secondary issue (the identity of the new PM). Let me explain. 9/
The core of the plan should be to stop a no deal Brexit happening without the support of a majority of MPs. A pre-Brexit GE achieves this goal. It is also, incidentally, what Labour has called for consistently for the last year or so. 10/
If there is a pre-Brexit GE, it enables the various parties and factions to make their case to the electorate. For no deal, for something like the WA, for no deal, for a PV, for revoking Article 50. 11/
There is, of course, a very real risk that Brexit parties will win such a GE. But given that support for remain is now well above 50%, it is also very possible that a clear path to stop Brexit will emerge. 12/
Many remainers are not content with this. They see an opportunity for the emergency government not just to call a GE, but to settle the substantive Brexit question. 13/
There are plans for it to agree to the WA (see Stephen Kinnock), to arrange a people's vote (see Caroline Lucas), or to revoke Article 50 altogether (see some LDs). The eagle-eyed among you will already have noticed the differences between these rival positions. 14/
The more ambitious the mandate, the more difficult it will be to reach agreement. Also, the longer the emergency government would be in office, and the more agreement would be needed on questions beyond Brexit. 15/
The various leaders/parties/factions should be discussing the extent to which they can find common ground. But, bottom line, they should decide whether they are content with a solution which ensures a pre-Brexit GE. 16/
I think that they should be... and that anything more is unattainable. The differences between them on Brexit (over whether to leave with a 'good deal', whether to have a PV, whether to revoke A50) are huge, and that's before we reach the differences on other policies. 17/
Those seeking to grant the emergency govt a greater mandate risk rendering the project politically unviable. So... I think that Corbyn is right to speak of a temporary Govt with a very limited mandate. 18/
As to who should lead such a Govt, the key again is not to compromise the viability of the proposal. This time, all the parties are playing an unsavoury blame game. 19/
Corbyn asserts that as LOTO, it has to be him. Others make the point that he is perhaps not the most likely figure to command cross-party support. Political point-scoring, opportunism and Meatloaf all feature heavily. 20/
If it is agreed that the emergency Govt has a narrow mandate; then the identity of the would-be new PM matters a lot less. 21/
This will not be a PM who has a programme for Govt which they will be able to implement. They will simply be setting the scene for a pre-Brexit GE. They will be presented (by Johnson) as the leader of a Parliamentary coup to stop Brexit, and defy the people. 22/
Little thought seems to have devoted to how this might play (electorally) for Corbyn in the lead up to the GE. Does he want that mantle? Might it not be better (for Corbyn) if a 'moderate' Tory is the object of Johnson's ire? 23/
So... a path to stop PM Johnson heading for no deal without Parliamentary support exists. The disparate opposition groups need to keep (or start?) talking. They should focus less on scoring political points off each other, and more on the clear and present danger. 24/24

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Phil Syrpis

Phil Syrpis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @syrpis

Jun 5
Probably not one for the heat of the election battle, but for me at least, something which goes to the core of the damage done by this Govt.

It is about the Govt's relationship with the set of institutions listed below. THREAD 1/8
I'm thinking of Parliament, the justice system, the Church, the armed forces, transport, schools, local government, the BBC, the NHS, social care systems, welfare systems, schools, universities, utility companies, the post office, the National Trust, libraries, etc 2/8
It's difficult to know just how to describe them.

Perhaps... what used to be 'the public realm'?

In any case, they now have a range of very different relationships with the 'state'. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21, 2023
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.

TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.

He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.

Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15, 2023
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.

But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.

Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
If there’s a unifying theme, it’s that people on the Right in the ‘culture wars’ want to act, and do act, as they please.

They do not believe that any negative consequences should attach to their words and actions. 1/3
They fail to see that their words and actions may have negative consequences for others, which those others may, legitimately, guard against.

It’s an individualistic mindset. And one which ignores power dynamics in society. 2/3
Johnson and Farage are two exemplars of this thinking.

They are used to getting what they want. And their instinct is to crush those who stand in their way. 3/3
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2023
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.

This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.

BUT... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5, 2023
So much of the Brexit debate is the same.

People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.

And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.

Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.

And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.

That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(