Thread by @djrothkopf

Here's why I think the Dem race is more wide open than most. (And I begin with the premise that I am not a political professional and one big reason my view might be different is that I am wrong. Also with the disclaimer that I will vote for whomever the Dem nominee is.)

First, Biden's primary advantages have been name recognition and the presumption that he has the best shot at beating Trump.
Next, the name recognition edge will inevitably fade as the campaign continues and leading candidates become better known.

Third, the unique value Biden is perceived to bring as "the one who can beat Trump" is also fading as other candidates become better known. Today each of the top four Dem candidates are seen to beat Trump in the polls...and we are a long way from anyone casting a vote.

Trump will weaken as the economy weakens and as new scandals take place. This will strengthen Dem candidates and thereby diminish the relative advantage offered by Biden.

Other candidates offer significant advantages that Biden can't really compete with. They include the ability to serve two terms (which he can't credibly be seen to do) and strong bases of appeal with key Democratic constituencies.

Biden is also a flawed campaigner, prone to errors. That can't help.

This is not to say, by the way, that Biden will not be the nominee or that he would not be 10000 times better than Trump. He is still the favorite. He is quantum levels better than Trump.

But the point is between now and the primaries, other Dems will be seen as possessing those traits that Biden is perceived to uniquely possess now plus others of their own. Warren, for example, not only has her "plans" but she is running by far the best campaign of all so far.

Other candidates will cut into Biden's large lead with African American voters. And should Bernie continue to fade, that will likely strengthen Warren. In fact, look at the polls and you will see that two-thirds or more of all Dem voters support progressive candidates.

Which is just to say that things change as they have been changing. Look at Warren's amazing swing upward. Look at how she performs in Iowa polls, too. Look at the swift gains Harris enjoyed post the first debate. She has lagged since, but this is a fluid game & she can rebound.

The character of the race will also change as it becomes clearer that only a handful of candidates can win. It may already be down to Biden and Warren. It might be Biden, Warren, Bernie, Harris. A couple others might get a bump--Mayor Pete and Booker lead this group.

The point is that all the articles that discuss this as though it were a done deal or today's realities will remain unchanged are clearly wrong. The race is just starting to get interesting.

But one more thing...

The race to date has also shown that the Dem candidates are a quality field full of people who would be light years better than the current embarrassment in the Oval Office. Further, and perhaps most surprisingly of all, the Dems are running a disciplined race.

Minor spats aside they are focused on beating Trump, on new ideas and on showing the clear differences between the Democratic and Republican parities. They are not succumbing to the temptation to fragment. They are all committed to victory in 2020.

That wasn't a sure thing six months ago. But the resolve of the party to do what it takes to save America from the Trump debacle is admirable and it is paying dividends.

Of course, the biggest of all those will come when Trump is defeated. But for now, we know one thing:

The Dems will do their best to ensure that they produce not only the best candidate to beat Trump but someone who can be a great president of the United States and undo the grievous damage the Trump-McConnell team have done.