, 12 tweets, 13 min read Read on Twitter
#SRO | THE BATTLE FOR KHAN SHEIKHOUN IS THE BATTLE FOR N-W #SYRIA | ANALYSIS - The capacity for the rebellion to resist in this city is the key to see if any rebellion stronghold in N-W #Syria will survive by itself, now #Turkey re-made alliance with #Assad via #Russia (1).
#SRO | With its decision to join back #Assad side, despite some claims saying the contrary, in an official way, #Turkey is leaving its home-made giant open air prison it created with #Russia in N-W #Syria. This rebellion "#Gaza" is now under its greatest threat of defeat (2).
#SRO | Khan Sheikhoun battle will be its only and last test to see its capacities to resist and create a moment of surviving by itself. Under the biggest, since #Aleppo, airforce strikes campaign, that killed thousands civilians since april 2019, rebellion is under pressure (3).
#SRO | That's why, after leaving the ground for weeks (after Tal Malah push), #HTS is also back at frontline, coming back on its decision to reinforce its own strongholds in Rif #Idlib. #HTS leadership understood the fast fall of Khan Sheikhoun will create its own grave (4).
#SRO | The situation is a turning point : Khan Sheikhun will fall, surely, with time. If it took only days (after siege), this will lead all of us to a fact : N-W #Syria won't exist by itself. If Khan Sheikhoun resist weeks or more, rebellion will create strategic momentum (5).
#SRO | We must consider rebellion capacities to do : in September-octobrer 2015, the only known rebellion victory on #Russia'n airforces took place in KafrNabudeh : rebellion lost, for sure, hundreds men, but won the battle and #Russia stopped its highly cost attack (6).
#SRO | For now, flat ground and low/no-urban space only helping #Russia'n airforce and the regime militias, including Hezbollah and others shia jihadis since few days, for the first time on this front. You can see Russia is avoiding to engage Jabal Zawiya or Khan Sheikhoun (7).
#SRO | #Russia'n strategists also concentrating, for months now, all forces on last #FSA remnants and #MB-inspired islamic groups strongholds, carrefully not engaging in Jisr al-Shughur (a jihadi stronghold) nor N-E #Idlib, despite being flat too, but #HTS strongholds ring (8).
#SRO | For sure, Khan Sheikhoun battle to turn into the turning point. Rebellion capacities to resist for long time will push #Russia'ns to change strategy and engaging negociations (including with #HTS). In same time, #Turkey to be loser : rebellion will say don't need it (9).
#SRO | But in case of a rapid fall of Khan Sheikhun and collapse of the N-#Hama pocket following this strategy, the rebellion will have to accept its defeat and will only fight to resist #Russia'n and foreign legions advances, alongside some radical militias as Tiger troops (10).
#SRO | Symbollical of importance of ongoing battle for all Syria oppositions, few protests took place for first time, in solidarity with #Idlib towns, accross N-E #Syria, #SDF-held... #Turkey re-made alliance with #Assad in N-W is a threat for #Rojava and allies (END).
NOTE : #Rojava and whole N-E #Syria administrations knew this Idlib - N-#Hama push is only the consequence of two others #Rojava enemies alliance : #Assad and #Turkey and what it will cost, at long time, despite #US agenda and some claims to protect them...
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