Christopher Miller Profile picture
Aug 17, 2019 11 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Ukraine's scandal-prone state security service, the SBU, has earned a reputation as one of the country's most corrupt institutions and proven thus far to be immune to reform. Is Ukraine’s newly elected President Zelenskiy up to the task? My story: rferl.org/a/ukraine-zele… v @RFERL
@RFERL How successful Zelenskiy is in cleaning up the SBU will be a litmus test of his office's resolve to bring Ukraine more into line with Western democracies. On the other hand, failure to reform it could hobble wider efforts to curb corruption & econ crime. rferl.org/a/ukraine-zele…
"Now there's a real opportunity to reform [Ukraine's security service]," says Ambo William Taylor, current charge d'affaires @USEmbassyKyiv. Insight also from @MarkGaleotti @AndyHunder @ANTAC_ua's Tania Shevchuk @JohnEdHerbst @PA3yMKOB's Oleksiy Melnyk rferl.org/a/ukraine-zele…
@USEmbassyKyiv @MarkGaleotti @AndyHunder @ANTAC_ua @JohnEdHerbst @PA3yMKOB You'll remember Ukraine's security service from the time last year when it faked the murder of Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko to expose what it claimed was a team of hitmen allegedly hired by Moscow to destabilize Ukraine. It didn't go over so well. rferl.org/a/lavrov-rejec…
With 30,000+ employees, the SBU is more than seven times the size of the U.K.'s MI5, and more than four times the size of Israel's Mossad. Besides performing the intel roles, the SBU's also responsible for combating economic crimes and corruption. That's become a big problem.
Ihor Smeshko, SBU head from 2003-2005, told me the agency is "the most powerful institution in the country." Over the years, abuse of its power — including accusations of blackmail, corruption, arms trafficking, secret jails, torture, FSB links — has cast a shadow over the SBU.
So why wasn't it been reformed? "Ukraine has used the war as an excuse to not reform the SBU," said @MarkGaleotti. Critics also said ex-president @poroshenko lacked the political will to reform the agency b/c he didn't want to relinquish control of it as he fought for reelection
@MarkGaleotti @poroshenko SBU agents have for years abused their sweeping powers to enrich themselves. Directorate K, its economic crimes unit formed in the turbulent privatization era of the 1990s, is notorious for corruption and abusing its power. As one expert put it, "they can do whatever they want."
.@AndyHunder of @ChamberUkraine, says Directorate K's activities have scared away potential investors. He's met with Zelenskiy's team to encourage them to reform the SBU, warn them that "maski shows" (raids by armed, masked agents) would hobble Ukraine's ability to attract biz.
@MarkGaleotti @poroshenko This thread could go on... but I'll leave you instead with a tease of what else is in the piece & link: more on the SBU's corrupt nature, including lavish lifestyles of its agents; the SBU's infiltration by Russian spies; recommendations for reforming it. rferl.org/a/ukraine-zele…
@MarkGaleotti @poroshenko Oh, and this good quote:

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More from @ChristopherJM

Aug 16
Scoop: Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk region as condition for ending Russia’s war but told Trump he could freeze the rest of the frontline if his core demands were met.

w/ @FT team @ak_mack @maxseddon @ChassNews
ft.com/content/6b0b49…
In exchange for the Donetsk region, Putin said he would freeze the frontline in partly controlled southern regions of Kherson & Zaporizhzhia, and to not launch new attacks to take more territory, according to three of the people familiar with the talks. ft.com/content/6b0b49…
Putin made it clear that he had not dropped his core demands to “resolve the root causes” of the conflict, which would essentially end Ukraine’s statehood in its current form and roll back Nato’s eastward expansion. ft.com/content/6b0b49…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7
🧶 New @Gallup poll: “More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory has hit a new low. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.

“This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.”Image
Over two-thirds of Ukrainians — 68% — think it is unlikely that active fighting will come to an end in the next year, according to new @Gallup poll. Image
“In 2025, 16% of Ukrainians approve of U.S. leadership, while 73% express disapproval, a record high. All of the goodwill that Washington built up in 2022, when 66% approved of U.S. leadership, has evaporated.” — @Gallup Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 21
🧵A lengthy thread here on today's news of searches and arrests in Ukraine and what the various parties involved as well as civil society and Kyiv's Western backers see happening.
Ukraine's state security service (SBU), State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) and Prosecutor General's Office (PGO) today conducted ~70 searches related to employees of the independent National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Special Anticorruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), detaining at least one official accused of spying for Russia. gp.gov.ua/ua/posts/ogp-t…
NABU said in a statement the searches involved at least 15 employees and were conducted without court warrants. "In most cases, the grounds cited for these actions are the alleged involvement of certain individuals in traffic accidents. However, some employees are being accused of possible connections with the aggressor state. These are unrelated matters."
nabu.gov.ua/en/news/offici…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 4
New @Maxar satellite imagery today, June 4, of Russia's Belaya and Olenya airbases struck by Ukrainian drones. Multiple Tu-95 and Tu-22 bomber aircraft are destroyed and some cleanup activity is seen near the plane debris, Maxar says. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones. A thread 🧵
1. after Ukrainian drone strike, overview of Belaya airbase, June 4
2.before drone strike, group of Tu22 aircraft, Belaya airbase, May 22
3. after drone strike, group of Tu22 aircraft Belaya airbase, June 4
4., before drone strike, Tu95 aircraft, Belaya airbase, May 22
📸: @MaxarImage
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5. after drone strike, destroyed Tu95 aircraft, Belaya airbase, June 4
6. before drone strike,Tu22 aircraft, Belaya airbase, May 22
7. after drone strike, two destroyed Tu22 aircraft, Belaya airbase, June 4
8. after drone strike, closer view of destroyed Tu95 aircraft, Belaya airbase, June 4
📸: @MaxarImage
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Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
Satellite images made by @Maxar before Ukraine's big drone strike operation show Russian airfields in Belaya, Ivanovo, Ukrainka, Olenya & Ryazan Dyagilevo, as well as close-up views of bomber, transport and airborne warning aircraft.

Maxar writes: "At each of the five airbases, defensive measures have been observed on many of the planes, presumably in an attempt to protect the aircraft from drone attacks by placing tires and other objects on the top of the wings. Additionally, the use of decoy aircraft was also seen at the airbases including painted aircraft outlines on the tarmac and materials positioned in the shape of bomber aircraft."

A thread. 🧵
1. overview of belaya airbase, May 22
2. objects on Tu 22 aircraft at belaya airbase, May 20
3. Tu 160 bombers and decoy painted on tarmac at belaya airbase, May 20
4. Tu 160 bombers at belaya airbase, May 20 Image
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5. tires and objects on Tu 22 aircraft at Belaya airbase, May 20
6. decoy Tu 22 aircraft at Belaya airbase, May 20
7. decoy aircraft at Belaya airbase, May 20
8. decoy aircraft Belaya airbase, May 20
📸: @Maxar Image
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 1
Ukrainian SBU security service sources tell @FT the agency is conducting "a large-scale special operation to destroy enemy bomber aircraft" deep inside Russia.

"SBU drones are targeting aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. At this point, more than 40 aircraft have reportedly been hit."

Video footage filmed by a Ukrainian reconnaissance aircraft and shared by the official appeared to show Russia’s Belaya airfield, located in south-eastern Siberia some 5,500km east of the frontline, in flames.

This was a hugely ambitious SBU operation. According to people familiar with the attack, codenamed “Spiderweb”, it was planned more than a year in advance and “personally supervised” by Zelensky. It used dozens of FPV drones armed with explosives that were smuggled into Russia. Photo: SBU Chief Vasyl Malyuk looks over a map of Russian targets in today's attack.Image
The SBU has shared photos of the drones it says were used in today's attack on Russian airfields. The images appear to show how the drones were hidden during transport to Russia ahead of the attack. Image
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Read 4 tweets

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